Record Rainfall in DC, Virginia, West Virginia Other Records Also Set From North Carolina to New England

PM Update (3:30): Record from North Carolina (Dec. 10):
Asheville, NC. . . . . . 1.97" (1.28", 1967)

Records from Rhode Island, Connecticut:
Providence, RI . . . . . 2.11" (1.78", 1959)
Hartford Bradley, CT . . 1.72" (1.54", 1967)

AM Update (11:00): More Mid Atlantic and Northeast rainfall records.

Final totals are:
Norfolk, VA. . . . . . . 2.77"
Richmond, VA . . . . . . 2.62"
Wallops Island, VA . . . 4.35"

These are all record-breaking amounts, as noted earlier.

The following daily records were also set:
Blacksburg, VA . . . . . 1.75" (1.50", 1969)
Lynchburg, VA. . . . . . 2.14" (0.98", 2001)
Danville, VA . . . . . . 2.04" (1.77", 1967)
Bluefield, WV. . . . . . 1.53" (0.69", 1960)
Harrisburg, PA . . . . . 2.29" (1.63", 2002)
Atlantic City, NJ. . . . 3.68" (1.58", 2003)
Wilmington, DE . . . . . 2.14" (1.50", 1992)
Philadelphia, PA . . . . 2.72" (2.25", 1992)
Avoca, PA. . . . . . . . 1.49" (1.41", 2003)
Trenton, NJ. . . . . . . 2.05" (1.90", 1992)
Bridgeport, CT . . . . . 1.64" (1.49", 1992)

Original post:
The strong storm which brought record snowfall to the Gulf Coast has set new daily rainfall records for portions of the Mid Atlantic area. The new records for December 11 (old record and year in parentheses) are:

Martinsburg, WV . . . . 1.92" (1.24", 2002)
Washington Dulles . . . 1.34" (1.09", 2002)
Washington National . . 1.66" (1.36", 2002)
Norfolk, VA . . . . . . 1.77" (1.64", 1888)
Wallops Island, VA . . .2.04" (1.70", 2003)
Richmond, VA . . . . . .2.64" (1.85", 1960)

The totals for Norfolk and Wallops Island are only through 4 pm. The Richmond total is unofficial; if it's correct, it appears to break the all-time daily December record going back to 1887. The projected final total of 2.76" at Norfolk would also smash the all-time daily December record since 1871.

November Warmer Than Average in U. S.

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center today released its analysis showing that November 2008 was warmer than the long-term average across the United States. The monthly average of 44.5°F was 2.0°F above the 20th Century average. For the year so far, the January to November average temperature of 54.9°F was 0.3°F above the 20th Century average. Temperature highlights for November from NOAA:

• November temperatures were cooler than average across the Southeast and Central regions, and much warmer than average in the Southwest, Northwest and West regions.
  
• The West region had its fourth warmest November on record. This contrasted with the Southeast, which was much below normal.
  
• Persistent above-average temperatures for the last six months have resulted in a record warm June-November period for the West region. California set a record for its warmest June-November, while both Nevada and Utah had their fifth warmest June-November period.
  
• Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 0.6 percent below average in November.

Precipitation averaged 1.93" for the month across the U.S. This was about 10% below the 100-year average. Precipitation highlights:

• The United States measured above-normal precipitation across the northern Great Plains from eastern Montana to western Minnesota. However, November was drier than normal across much of the South and Central regions.
  
• Precipitation across most of the Midwest was only 50-75 percent of normal and some areas from southern Missouri through central Illinois received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation.
  
• The January-November period has been persistently wet across much of the country from the central Plains to the Northeast. The 11-month period was the wettest on record for New Hampshire and Massachusetts, second wettest for Missouri, third wettest for Vermont and Illinois, and fifth wettest for Maine and Iowa.
  
• At the end of November, 22 percent of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought, about the same as October. Meanwhile, extreme-to-exceptional drought conditions continued in the western Carolinas, northeast Georgia, eastern Tennessee, southern Texas, and Hawaii.
  
• About 26 percent of the contiguous United States was in moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of November, according to the Palmer Index. This was a decrease of about three percent compared to October.

Gulf Coast Snow: Records Set in Texas, Louisiana

For related posts, including the latest record report, see:

• Record Snow
• Winter Weather

Dec. 14 update: Added snowfall map from National Weather Service, New Orleans.



PM Update: Here are more snow totals reported from southeast Texas, the New Orleans region, and parts of Mississippi:

TEXAS:

...BRAZOS...BURLESON...MADISON...HOUSTON COUNTIES...
COLLEGE STATION - 1.5-2 INCH
EASTERWOOD FIELD KCLL - 2.0 INCH
BRENHAM - 3 INCH
MADISONVILLE - 2-3 INCH
HOUSTON COUNTY - 1.0 INCH
CONROE - 1.2 INCH
NAVASOTA - 2.0 - 3.0 INCH

...HARRIS COUNTY...
KINGWOOD - 1.0 INCH
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL - TRACE
CYPRESS - 0.5 INCH
DW HOOKS FIELD - TRACE
SPRING - 1.0 INCH
RICE/WEST U - 0.5 INCH
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT - 0.3 INCH
PASADENA - 2.5 INCH
CHANNELVIEW - 2.5 INCH
LA PORTE - 3.0 INCH
BAYTOWN - 4.0 INCH
HOUSTON (SE) - 0.5 INCH
ELLINGTON FIELD KEFD - 1.0 INCH

...GALVESTON...BRAZORIA COUNTIES...
GALVESTON - 1.0 INCH
CLEAR LAKE - 1.0 INCH
NWS OFFICE - 1.5 INCH
LEAGUE CITY - 1.5 INCH
PEARLAND - 0.5 INCH
SEABROOK - 1.0 INCH
SANTA FE - 2.0 INCH
SWEENY - 0.5 INCH
ANGLETON - 0.5 INCH

...CHAMBERS...LIBERTY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY COUNTIES...
TRINITY - 1 INCH
LIVINGSTON - 2.0 INCH
SAN JACINTO COUNTY - 2.5 - 3.0 INCH
MOUNT BELVIEW - 5.0 INCH
LIBERTY - 5.0 INCH
ANAHUAC - 4.0 INCH
WINNIE - 5.0 - 6.0 INCH

MISSISSIPPI:

BOGUE CHITTO...LINCOLN COUNTY... 8 INCHES
HILLSBORO...SCOTT COUNTY... 5 INCHES
COLUMBIA...MARION COUNTY... 5 INCHES
JAYESS...LAWRENCE COUNTY... 5 INCHES
BROOKHAVEN...LINCOLN COUNTY... 5 INCHES
ROOSEVELT STATE PARK... SCOTT COUNTY... 5 INCHES
FLORENCE...RANKIN COUNTY... 5 INCHES
COLLINS...COVINGTON COUNTY... 4.5 INCHES
BRAXTON...SIMPSON COUNTY... 4 INCHES
MIZE...SMITH COUNTY... 4 INCHES
WEST HATTIESBURG...LAMAR COUNTY... 4 INCHES
PRENTISS...JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY... 4 INCHES
OMA...LAWRENCE COUNTY... 4 INCHES
JOHNS...RANKIN COUNTY... 3.5 INCHES
3S OF MADDEN...LEAKE COUNTY... 3 INCHES
PUCKETT...RANKIN COUNTY... 3 INCHES
5E OF MCCALL CREEK...LINCOLN COUNTY... 3 INCHES
HAZLEHURST...SIMPSON COUNTY... 3 INCHES
BRANDON...RANKIN COUNTY... 2.5 INCHES
BAY SPRINGS...SMITH COUNTY... 2.5 INCHES
MCCALL CREEK...FRANKLIN COUNTY... 2 INCHES
PURVIS...LAMAR COUNTY... 2 INCHES
SEBASTAPOL...SCOTT COUNTY... 1 INCHES
ROSE HILL...JASPER COUNTY... 1 INCH
ELLISVILLE...JONES COUNTY... 1 INCH
ROXIE...FRANKLIN COUNTY... 1 INCH
FLOWOOD/NWS JACKSON...RANKIN COUNTY... 0.9 INCHES
HATTIESBURG...FORREST COUNTY... 0.8 INCHES

LOUISIANA:

CITY COUNTY/PARISH AMOUNT
AMITE TANGIPAHOA LA 8 INCHES
CROSSROADS PEARL RIVER MS 6 INCHES
MOUNT HERMAN WASHINGTON LA 6 INCHES
ZACHARY EAST BATON ROUGE LA 5.5 INCHES
LIVINGSTON LIVINGSTON LA 5.5 INCHES
BOGALUSA WASHINGTON LA 5 INCHES
SUN ST. TAMMANY LA 5 INCHES
FRANKLINTON WASHINGTON LA 5 INCHES
GREENSBURG ST. HELENA LA 4 INCHES
ENON WASHINGTON LA 4 INCHES
NEW ROADS POINTE COUPEE LA 3 INCHES
BATON ROUGE EAST BATON ROUGE LA 3 INCHES
PORT ALLEN WEST BATON ROUGE LA 2 INCHES
MCCOMB PIKE MS 2 INCHES
NAPOLEONVILLE ASSUMPTION LA 1.5 INCHES
HAHNVILLE ST. CHARLES LA 1.5 INCHES
NEW ORLEANS ORLEANS LA 1 INCH
GRETNA JEFFERSON LA 1 INCH
LAPLACE ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA 1 INCH
SLIDELL ST. TAMMANY LA 1 INCH

Portions of the Gulf Coast received an unusual early winter snowfall this morning. The noon radar from The Weather Channel shows the snow retreating into western and central Mississippi, leaving behind 1" of snow on the ground at Baton Rouge. At 7 am this morning, Baton Rouge reported snow with thunder and a temperature of 34°.

All-time record December snow amounts were observed at Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, and at Lake Charles, Louisiana. A snow depth of 4" was measured by a TV meteorologist near Beaumont, Texas. As of 10:15 am local time, these snowfall amounts were reported:

TEXAS
-----
LUMBERTON 4.0 INCH
WEST BEAUMONT 4.0 INCH
WOODVILLE 3.0 INCH
BEAUMONT CITY 2.5 INCH
WILDWOOD 2.2 INCH
GROVES 2.0 INCH
SILSBEE 2.0 INCH
SE TX REGIONAL ARPT 1.8 INCH
NEDERLAND 1.0 INCH
ORANGE 1.0 INCH
PORT NECHES 1.0 INCH
JASPER 0.5 INCH

LOUISIANA
---------
EUNICE 3.0 INCH
OAKDALE 3.0 INCH
OPELOUSAS 3.0 INCH
FOREST HILL 2.0 INCH
DE QUINCY 1.5 INCH
VINTON 1.5 INCH
BUNKIE 1.3 INCH
ELMER 1.2 INCH
MOSS BLUFF 1.2 INCH
BELL CITY 1.0 INCH
DERIDDER 1.0 INCH
JENNINGS 1.0 INCH
LAKE ARTHUR 1.0 INCH
SAM HOUSTON JONES SP 1.0 INCH
WOODWORTH 1.0 INCH
SULPHUR 1.0 INCH
LAFAYETTE 1.0 INCH
LAKE CHARLES SALT WB 0.4 INCH
NWS LAKE CHARLES 0.4 INCH
LEESVILLE 0.2 INCH
ALEXANDRIA 911 TRACE

The winter weather forced a postponement of groundbreaking ceremonies for a Naval Meteorology Professional Development Center to be built in Gulfport, Mississippi.

Weather Channel video is here.

2008: Coolest Year in Decade

An article posted yesterday on the UK Guardian web site reports that 2008 is on track to be the coolest on average since 2000. The preliminary estimate by the UK Met Office is scheduled to be released formally next week. Based on data through October, the global yearly average is expected to be near 14.3°C, which is 0.14°C below the 2001-2007 average. Although the news is likely to be cheered on squawk radio and denialist web sites (It's already being featured here), the article notes:

The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing however, say climate scientists at the Met Office. "Absolutely not," said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office's Hadley Centre. "If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends."

The Guardian report is the most viewed article on the guardian.co.uk web site in the last 24 hours, and the second most viewed in the last 7 days.

Image: Long term global temperature trend from Climatic Research Unit, via UK Guardian

DC: Definitely Chilly Coolest November Since 1997

November's average temperature of 46.6° at Washington's National Airport was 2.1° below the 1971-2000 "normal". This made it the coolest November since the 46.2° in 1997, just barely beating out the 46.7° in 2000. The month was tied with 1937 as the 59th coolest November in 138 years of official records. Although the daily high of 74° on both the 1st and 15th was well above the long-term average, no daily high or low records were seriously threatened. The monthly low of 26° on the 22nd was significantly above the record low of 12° for the date.

Does a relatively cold November predict a cold winter? The lower chart to the right shows the relationship between the November average temperature and the following December-January-February average since 1871. The upward sloping trend line indicates that cold Novembers tend to be associated with relatively colder winters, but the relationship is not very strong. The equation of the trend line indicates that for every 1° change in the November average, the winter average moves in the same direction by about 0.4°. On the other hand, there is a lot of scatter in the data. The "R-squared" says that only 19% of the variability of the winter average temperature is accounted for by the November average.

For more details on regression analysis and a discussion of the relationships between temperature and precipitation, see these blasts from the past:

• As December Goes . . .
  
• Winter Marches On
  
• Round Rodent vs. Regression
  
• Who'll Start the Rain?
  
• Chilly Still on the Menu

Images: CapitalClimate charts from NWS data, photos © Kevin Ambrose

Even More 2008-2009 Winter Weather Outlooks

WSI Corp., a sister company to The Weather Channel and operator of Intellicast, has updated its winter weather outlook for 2008-2009. It calls for a cold December, but a warm January, in the eastern U.S. The Northeast is expected to be colder than normal, and the Southeast warmer than normal, in February:

The current cold pattern in the northeastern US should persist through at least the first half of December. A temporary transition to a mild pattern should occur from January into early February, before the pattern reverts back to a much colder regime during the last weeks of winter.

Larry Cosgrove's WEATHERAmerica is forecasting a "very wintry Midwest and Eastern Seaboard", including the "possibility of major ice storm formation around Appalachia and the Piedmont (including the markets of Birmingham AL; Atlanta GA; Charlotte NC; Raleigh NC; and Richmond VA)."

Click here for previous winter outlook posts.

Images: Predicted storm tracks and snowfall potential for winter 2008-2009 from WEATHERAmerica.

Study Indicates Longer Hurricane Seasons

As noted in a previous post, among the records set in the 2008 hurricane season was the one for the "first time major hurricanes have been observed in five separate months". Even before this record became final, a new study analyzed the question of whether hurricane seasons are becoming longer in general. A paper describing the results of this study was recently accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union.

The study, by Dr. James P. Kossin of the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin, first looked at the dates of the first storm and last storm for each season. The results showed that "the time of occurrence of the first and last annual formation events exhibit decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, suggesting that the length of the hurricane season is increasing." The chart to the right above shows a graph of the dates and trend lines. The red lines are the trends for the entire period 1851 to 2007. The blue lines cover only the period of aircraft reconnaissance data, and the green lines are for the satellite observation era.

Looking at just the first and last dates doesn't say anything about shifts in the distribution within the season, however, so Kossin also used a statistical analysis technique called "quantile regression." The quantiles represent subsets within the distribution. For example, 20% of the storm formation dates occur prior to the date at the 0.2 quantile. The quantiles, shown in the charts below (click to enlarge), indicate a negative trend (earlier formation) for the beginning of the season and a positive trend (later formation) for the latter part of the season.
Kossin's overall conclusion is:

A consistent signal emerged that suggests the season has become longer as the earliest formation dates of the season have become earlier and the latest dates have become later. While the sign of these trends remain consistent when different periods are considered, the uncertainty is sometimes high. . . . The analyses presented here show how storm formation dates have been changing within the historical hurricane record, but cannot be used to directly implicate cause for these changes or to accurately predict future changes.