Climate Capital: Economics of Global Warming

10/25 Update: The online WSJ's Environmental Capital blog points out that the economic slowdown has also lowered the cost of pollution permits, further decreasing the incentive to reduce emissions:

The price of a carbon permit under Europe’s emissions-trading scheme has dropped 15% in the last two weeks to reach an 8-month low of 20.15 euros.

Prices dropped another 5% on Friday alone.

Original post:

Implicit in the name of this blog is the notion that climate change, although fundamentally a scientific problem, is inextricably bound up with the economics of dependence on fossil-fueled energy. PBS' Frontline documentary series followed up their previous coverage of climate change this week (Tuesday night on most stations) with a 2-hour program titled simply "Heat". As stated in the show's synopsis:

On the eve of a historic election, award-winning producer and correspondent Martin Smith investigates how the world's largest corporations and governments are responding to Earth's looming environmental disaster. . . Smith traveled to 12 countries on four continents to investigate whether major corporations and governments are up to the challenge. HEAT features in-depth interviews with top policy-makers and with leading executives from many of the largest carbon emitters from around the world, including Chinese coal companies, Indian SUV makers and American oil giants. The report paints an ominous portrait. Despite increasing talk about "going green," across the planet, environmental concerns are still taking a back seat to shorter-term economic interests.

This conclusion regarding short-term concerns, which was apparent even before the latest implosion of cowboy capitalism, is even more true in the current economic climate. Correspondent Smith made note of this in a response to a question in a WaPo online chat the day after the program aired:

For many scientists the signs are already apparent - what we saw in the Himalayas, what's happening in the Arctic, the increased strength of storm. And millions more people every year are coming to grips with this. But it's hard to pay attention to melting ice caps, when their 401Ks are melting at an even more rapid rate.

In fact, the problem is worse than lack of public attention or even the diversion of capital away from climate to more immediate concerns. A front-page WaPo article on Monday, As Fuel Prices Fall, Will Push For Alternatives Lose Steam? points out that the lower price of energy in a slowing economy removes much of the economic incentive to develop alternate energy technologies.

If you missed the program, or if you want to review individual sections, video is available on the show's website. Also available on the site are supplemental interviews and audience responses. A teacher's guide and transcript are scheduled to be posted soon.

Major Hurricane Omar Weakens After Passing Virgin Islands; Heads for Central Atlantic

After developing on Monday in the eastern Caribbean, Tropical Depression 15 became Tropical Storm Omar on Tuesday. Moving northeastward, Omar was a hurricane by Tuesday night.

The hurricane continued strengthening on Wednesday, reaching major status (Category 3) with maximum winds of 120 mph as it approached the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands Wednesday night. The storm passed about 25 miles east of St. Croix and about 70 miles west of St. Maarten and accelerated toward the northeast.

As Omar moved away from the Leeward Islands, reconnaissance reports indicated that maximum winds had increased to 125 mph in the early morning hours today. By 8 am, maximum winds had decreased to 115 mph, and they continued to weaken to 85 mph at 11 am.

Hurricane Omar is now racing north northeast at 26 mph toward the central Atlantic with maximum winds of 75 mph. Continued gradual weakening is expected as the storm also slows its forward speed and turns more toward the east.

Images: Hurricane Omar observed tropical storm and hurricane wind swaths and forecast track from National Hurricane Center

Nana Nearly Negligible 14th Tropical Storm Follows Micro Marco's Minimal Mexican Mark

Following midget Tropical Storm Marco, a very weak Tropical Storm Nana has developed this afternoon in the eastern Atlantic, about 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. At 40 mph, Nana's maximum winds are just barely tropical storm strength. The storm is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday as it moves west northwest in the open ocean.

Tiny Marco, which made landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast near Veracruz last week, was the smallest named storm since size statistics began being collected in 1988. Its area of tropical storm force winds was barely half the size of the previous record holder, Henri of 2001. At Marco's peak, tropical storm winds extended no further than 25 miles in any direction from the center.

Images: Nana forecast track from National Hurricane Center, Marco track from Weather Underground

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That 70s Climate Cooling Show: Myth-tery Science Theater Update

Back in January, before the WaPo's hostility to climate coverage necessitated a split, CapitalClimate pointed out an American Meteorological Society (AMS) conference presentation which thoroughly debunked the myth that climate science in the 1970s was predicting global cooling. That presentation has just been formally published in the current issue (September) of the Bulletin of the AMS as a paper titled, "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". The full paper is available at the link, no subscription required.

The chart, extracted from the published paper, shows the number of peer-reviewed journal articles "classified as predicting, implying, or providing supporting evidence for future global cooling, warming, and neutral categories" from 1965 through 1979. During the surveyed period, there were a total of 7 cooling, 20 neutral, and 44 warming papers. There was no single year in which the number of cooling papers exceeded the number of warming papers.

For more links and discussion on the subject of the global cooling myth, see posts by two of the authors at Stoat and RealClimate.

Tropical Season Update: Lonely Laura May Develop Siblings

After minimal Hurricane Kyle lashed eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia, Subtropical Storm Laura developed early Monday morning in the north-central Atlantic, about 1000 miles west of the Azores. Maximum winds were 60 mph, and some strengthening was expected, but the storm never exceeded that intensity. Laura became a tropical storm on Tuesday and gradually weakened as it continued moving generally northward over colder waters. The storm lost its tropical characteristics and weakened further yesterday morning.

Meanwhile, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University released their updated hurricane season forecast yesterday. They expect an active October, with 3 named storms, 2 of which would be hurricanes, with 1 of them major (Category 3 or higher). So far this season, there have been a total of 12 named storms, including 6 hurricanes, 3 of which were major.

Image: Laura track from Weather Underground

Hurricane Kyle Loses Tropical Characteristics, Approaching New Brunswick

Hurricane Kyle has lost its tropical characteristics as it skirted western Nova Scotia approaching New Brunswick. At 10 pm EDT, Kyle made landfall just north of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia as a minimal Category 1 hurricane. A hurricane force wind gust was reported at Baccaro Point, Nova Scotia, and a higher gust was reported from a Coast Guard ship offshore.

Maximum winds are still estimated at 70 mph, and tropical storm winds extend as much as 240 miles from the center. At 11 pm, the center of the storm was located 60 miles south of St. John, New Brunswick, moving north at 26 mph.

Tropical storm force winds are still likely over parts of southern Nova Scotia and southeastern New Brunswick the rest of tonight.

Images: Kyle satellite image from SSD/NOAA, Kyle forecast track from National Hurricane Center