Tropical Storm Fay Update: Watches, Warnings Widened

Tropical Storm Fay has moved back over water between Haiti and Cuba this morning. The circulation is somewhat disorganized from its encounter with land, but estimated maximum winds have increased slightly overnight to 45 mph. Various watches and warnings are in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, Turks and Caicos, southeastern Bahamas, Jamaica, and Cayman Islands. Interests in western Cuba and Florida, including the Keys, are advised to also monitor the storm's progress.

Fay is expected to intensify, probably reaching hurricane strength in the next couple of days, but the amount of intensification depends on the amount of time the storm spends over water. There is also a large amount of uncertainty in the forecast path, but the current prediction brings the storm northward across Cuba and the Florida Keys to a landfall on the Florida peninsula. A reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this afternoon to investigate the storm's strength and organization.

Fay Forms; Tropical Storm Warnings Issued

Tropical Storm Fay developed late this afternoon near the eastern Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the north coasts of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Warnings are also in effect for portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

At 5 pm, Fay was located about 35 miles east of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and about 400 miles east southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Movement was westward around 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were just over minimum tropical storm strength at 40 mph. The main immediate threat from the storm is for torrential rains, which can produce flash flooding and mudslides in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Image: Track forecast from National Hurricane Center

Tropic Thunder: Fay Finally Forming?

Update:The National Hurricane Center has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement indicating that the low pressure area has not yet developed into a tropical depression, but that cyclone formation could occur at any time in the next couple of days.

After a lull through most of the first half of August, the tropical Atlantic is heating up again. A stormy area which has tracked westward to near the Virgin Islands is looking more organized today. The National Hurricane Center is now giving this a high probability of development into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days as it moves towards the Bahamas and Florida. If a storm does develop, it will be called Tropical Storm Fay.

A reconnaissance flight now investigating the area has already reported surface winds as high as 34 knots (39 mph). Jeff Masters notes in his blog on Weather Underground that conditions appear favorable for further development. Radar images from the area are showing signs of rotation.

Image from Martinique radar, METEO France

August Arctic Attrition Accelerating

The latest Arctic sea ice update from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reports that the rate of melting has accelerated in the first 10 days of August. As a result, "Amundsen's historic Northwest Passage is opening up." Although the extent of melting so far is less than last year's record, it is still way ahead of the long term average.

See DeSmog Blog and Climate Progress for further comments.

Image from NSIDC shows 2008 Arctic sea ice extent vs. 2007 and long term average.

Attention Climate Change Deniers

Stephen Colbert Advocates for Ignorance History Month

Olympic Pollution Update: Beijing Shell Game

Update: Added articles from IEEE Spectrum, Olympics smog blog link, and today's Doonesbury.

A dispatch from the WaPo Foreign Service in today's carbon-based edition (A18, if you're keeping score at home) notes that In Cleanup Effort, Beijing Moved Factories to Clog Air Elsewhere.

Climate Progress points out that a cover package of four articles, a news item, "Will Beijing's Dirty Air Hurt Performance?", and an editorial (free access with registration) in last week's Science magazine on "China's Environmental Challenges", like most general media coverage, completely neglects the longer-term problem of greenhouse gas emissions and their effect on climate.

By contrast, however, IEEE Spectrum featured "China Doubles Wind Watts" in May:

Its fleet of wind turbines more than doubled in generating capacity in 2007, surging by over 3 gigawatts, according to the Global Wind Energy Council. That's less power capacity than China's coal sector adds per week, but it's enough to make China the third-fastest-growing wind market worldwide (behind the United States and Spain) and propel it to fifth place in the Global Wind Energy Council's annual capacity rankings (ahead of even wind-energy pioneer Denmark).

The June issue contained the article, "How to Build a Green City", about the plans for the development of Dongtan, "the world’s first eco-city" on an island off Shanghai.

A recent story by BBC News Magazine, "The filthy air conundrum", examines the tradeoffs between short-term pollution fixes and long-term solutions. It also contrasts the Beijing situation with the London Great Smog of 1952, which is estimated to have killed 4000 people. (A tip of the Rabett ears to the sly perfesser for pointing out the analogy to the late 19th century London pollution depicted in Monet's paintings. Now how about a listing in your blog roll, since the other Capital guys have virtually abandoned climate coverage for 24x7 local weather?)

Here's an interesting link from the smogo-blogosphere: The HoChro's Sports Update blog has a special archive section just for Olympics smog. Maybe it's to make Houston's oppressive heat and humidity seem more bearable?

Finally, check out Doonesbury's Daily Dose:


Upper image: Christies Images/Corbis via New Scientist magazine

Vote Early and Often: Hurricane Forecast Revised

Update: Added link to actual NOAA forecast text.

Paraphrasing the old political adage, the tropical prognosticators are upping the ante on the outlook for the remainder of this hurricane season. NOAA's prediction, which was announced this morning, has raised the probability of an above-average season from 65% to 85%. The range of named storms has been bumped up by to two, to 14-18, and the number of hurricanes has been pegged at 7-10.

This update follows by a few days the revisions of the Klotzbach/Gray group at land-locked Colorado State. They're on the high end of the NOAA range, calling for 17 named storms vs. 15 in the previous forecast made in June. The other seasonal parameters include (previous forecast in parentheses): hurricanes 9 (8), intense hurricanes 5 (4), named storm days 90 (80).

At Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters has posted Part I of his August hurricane outlook, covering Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). He sees continued above-average SSTs. On Friday, he's planning to cover wind shear, steering currents, and dust levels.

Image of revised hurricane season forecast from NOAA.