DC Held Rainless: Day 34 ?Chance of showers better tomorrow

Now

Variable clouds, warm, more humid. OK, it's not as exciting as an impending snowstorm (and the threat of school closings), but it's an historic event when a record dry spell is broken, even if the last one was set only 12 years ago. With another 7 hours left before the record officially falls, there is actually something to look at on the radar for the first time in many days. The main action is well to the south, where a line of thunderstorms has moved out of southeastern Virginia and over the lower Chesapeake Bay. A small area of showers also extended earlier from Frederick Co. Maryland across the extreme eastern West Virginia panhandle and into western Loudoun Co. This has diminished significantly as it moved into the far western corner of Montgomery Co.

Temperature-wise, it's back to the 80s with both National and Dulles hitting 81° by 2pm. (Relative to the long-term average, that's about 5 weeks later than normal.) Around the metro area, nearly all locations have readings in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints into the moderately muggy mid and even upper 60s.

With this much humidity around and better dynamics, the chances for showers are higher tomorrow.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance of showers. Mostly cloudy skies tonight will have only a 20% chance of yielding a measurable shower before the record is set at midnight. Lows will be quite mild for the season, in the mid 60s downtown to near 60 in the cooler 'burbs (The record high minimum for the 19th is 65° at National and only 57° at Dulles). Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs 76-80° and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms (one model is even calling for a 100% chance). While this could break the rainless streak, most amounts are likely to be less than ¼", barely the average amount for 2 days.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

As the season continues to fade, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet.

Mediarology

The Weather Channel CD is now up to #43 on the Amazon music list.

Counting Down to a Rain-Free RecordWeather music works its way up the charts

Now

Sunny, warm, a little more humid. With a large high pressure ridge still dominating, this afternoon's weather map shows virtually no rain anywhere east of the Mississippi. Here in the Washington metro area, bright sunshine and southerly breezes have pushed temperatures back into the 80s for the first time in a week; by 4pm, National was at 82°, 14° above average.

At post time, we are roughly 7 hours from tying the 1995 record of 33 consecutive days without measurable rain. Whether the streak lasts through tomorrow is a little more problematic, but the chances for precipitation look better for Friday. Fortunately, conditions in this area are not as dire as in large portions of the Southeast, where residents are "Facing Tough Choices".

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, warm. Clouds will be scattered to broken overnight with lows in the low 60s downtown and the mid and upper 50s in the 'burbs. Some mist or fog is possible in the early morning hours. Tomorrow will have increasing clouds in the afternoon but only a 30% chance of showers and continued warm temperatures, highs 76-79°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology

If you're bored watching grass die, the Discovery Channel premieres a new series tonight called "Storm Chasers". The show pairs up tornado researcher Dr. Josh Wurman and his Doppler on Wheels (featured in Nancy Mathis' book "Storm Warning") with an IMAX filmmaker and the TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle), which looks like it escaped from a steroid explosion at the BattleBot lab. The program is scheduled for 10pm on Wednesdays, with repeats Friday nights at 8 and midnight, Mondays at 10, and Tuesdays at 2am.

The Weather Channel CD compilation of Weather on the 8's smooth jazz, which Jason posted about yesterday, has risen to number 60 for sales in the music category and number 1 for jazz compilations at Amazon.

TIV photo from Discovery Channel

Double Digit Deviations Warm October continues into second half

Now

Mostly sunny, warm. A high, thin overcast at times has not been enough to keep high temperatures from once again soaring to double digit deviations from the long-term average. By 4pm, National had reached at least 79°, (11° above average) and Dulles was 78°. Through the first half, the monthly average is now 9.2° above average. In the unlikely event this were to continue, the month would end up being nearly 4° above the record warmest October in 1984. One indication of the remarkable warmth of the past 2 weeks is that the average daily low so far of 61.5° would be high enough as an overall average to put the month in the top 20 warmest Octobers of the last 137 years.

No rain is in sight for at least the next couple of days.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, dry. A crescent moon will share the sky with some thin clouds tonight. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60° in the city and low to mid 50s in 'burbville. Tomorrow should be mainly sunny and continued warm with highs 78-82°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Capitol Climate

The House Committee on Science and Technology's Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight is holding a hearing tomorrow (10am, 2318 Rayburn HOB) on the effect of climate change on the Arctic, with particular emphasis on the threat of permafrost melting as a possible tipping point through the release of methane (not included in the modeling used for the most recent IPCC report). Other topics include "projections regarding the future survival of the polar bear; the loss of sea ice in the Arctic and new research on ice sheet melting; the decline of the boreal forests of the Arctic due to global warming; and strategies to reduce black soot and methane among other greenhouse gases."

October Fester

Now

Sunny, warm. The deepening drought continues to slowly fester across the Nation's Capital region. Although it's not likely to last, as we reach mid-month, this October is still tied with October 1963 as the driest month ever recorded in Washington. On the other hand, we are now within only a few days of the longest rainless streak with only a trace in the last 31 days. The 1963 streak of 32 days began following almost 2" of rain on Sept. 29 and ended with nearly 1" on Nov. 1 for the start of a a very wet month totaling 6.7". The 1963 trace at National was also duplicated at then brand-new Dulles Airport. The record streak was broken in 1995 with 33 days from Aug. 7 to Sept. 8.

The 30-day percentage of normal precipitation from the NWS New Precipitation Analysis shows the worst impacts from the District south, where the darkest red indicates only 0-5% of average. The lighter red to the north and west represents 10-25%, and even the orange over northeastern Maryland is in the 25-50% range.

Under bright October sun and a mostly westerly breeze, temperatures this afternoon have climbed to the mid and even upper 70s; National was 77° at 3pm before an easterly wind knocked the reading down a couple of degrees. Dewpoints are in the dry low to mid 40s.

Although the main storm track this week is through the center of the country, the best chance in a while for at least some rain (but not the soaking variety) is starting to shape up for Friday or Saturday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Seasonably warm, dry. Mostly clear to partly cloudy and dry conditions will continue through tonight, with lows in the mid 50s in the city and the upper 40s to low 50s in the 'burbs. Mostly sunny skies in the morning will give way to more clouds in the afternoon tomorrow with highs 74-78°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of thunderstorms in the southwestern GoMex (Gulf of Mexico). Only slow development, if any, is expected, but that didn't stop energy market commentators from citing it this morning as a reason for the record-breaking oil price of $85 a barrel.

Political Science

You don't need to be a weatherman to predict the reaction to Friday's announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize. McClatchy newspapers, via the SeaTimes, report that Colorado State's William Gray called global warming theories "ridiculous" in a lecture at UNC Charlotte. The Deltoid science blog, via a link from the Ol' Perfesser, provides a handy directory to some very creative expressions of "Gore Derangement Syndrome".

Also on the opinion front, atmospheric sciences professor Judith Curry of Georgia Tech has a thorough critique of many of the flaws in Bjorn Lomborg's WaPo climate policy opinion piece last Sunday.

Hot and Humid to Cool and Crisp

Now

Variable cloudiness, much cooler. Today's WaPo front page and garden section point out that the 27th consecutive day without measurable precipitation may not be good for water supplies, but abundant sunshine should be helpful for the kickoff tomorrow of the Solar Decathlon on the Mall. Go Terps and 'Tute!

After some popup showers, mainly to the north, accompanying a second cold frontal passage last night, northwesterly winds gusting as high as 25 mph at times have helped keep temperatures generally in the mid 60s this afternoon. After reaching 66° earlier (the same as yesterday's low), National was back down to 63° at 4pm; Dulles and BWI were 62°. The air is also quite dry; dewpoints are as low as the mid 30s.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, cool. Under decreasing clouds, lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to near 50° in the city and the mid 40s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and breezy with highs 65-68°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

El Niño Update

The latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation Discussion, released today, indicates that "La Niña will likely continue into early 2008." La Niña conditions strengthened last month in all of the Niño regions with negative sea surface temperatures expanding westward in the equatorial Pacific. Expected impacts of a weak-to-moderate La Niña in the next several months include above average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and continued below average precipitation in the Southwest. The next update is scheduled for November 8.

Mediaorology

Bob Ryan, a former President of the American Meteorological Society, is the co-author of an important guest editorial in the August Bulletin of the AMS on the subject of climate change and the public. It says, in part,

Increasing numbers of broadcast meteorologists, to whom the public looks for information and guidance on climate change and global warming, are not offering scientific information but rather, all too often, nonscientific personal opinions . . . We strongly believe that, above all, if we are to professionally, fairly, and objectively communicate scientific information (as opposed to a personal or political opinion), we should use our scientific training to stay as informed as possible . . .

DC Hits the Drifecta

Now

Sunny, cooler, less humid. A few spots in the region, especially well to the north and east of the Beltway (NWS map out for maintenance) got some welcome showers last evening, but all 3 major airports saw only a trace, and National is now approaching the end of its fourth consecutive week without measurable precipitation. At this point, it would take at least 2" of rain the rest of the month to keep this September-October from being one of the top 10 driest such periods in 137 years of records. The driest, shown in the chart, was 1930 with 1.04"; this year's total so far is 0.60".

After yesterday's trifecta of temperature records and high humidity, the cooler temperatures and much drier dewpoints are a relief, but temperatures are still a good 10° or more above seasonal averages. By mid afternoon, most locations were in the low 80s, while dewpoints had dropped into the very comfy upper 40s. A reinforcing shot of cool air will accelerate the downward temperature trend tomorrow.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, then some clouds and much cooler. Lows tonight under clear skies will range from the upper 50s downtown to the low 50s in the 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be much more Octobery: partly to mostly sunny and breezy with highs 65-69°. There is a slight chance of a passing shower in the afternoon.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology

The second episode of the new PBS Wired Science series tonight is scheduled to feature a segment on the effect of global warming on gardening and also on where rubber duckies go to die. Showtime is 8pm on WETA 26 and WMPT 22 (your cable system may vary).

Planetary Weather

The NYTi reports today that NASA's New Horizons spacecraft, while getting a slingshot boost by Jupiter earlier this year on its way to Pluto, discovered lightning in Jupiter's atmosphere at both poles, the first time this has been observed beyond Earth. The spacecraft was designed and built, and is operated by, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab in Laurel.

Historic Heat Halting

Now

Mostly sunny, record heat, humid. The Mid Atlantic region's historic October heat wave is being squeezed out from both the northeast and the west this afternoon, but not before new daily records were set at all 3 major airports. By 4pm, all local reporting locations had reached 90° or above. Although dewpoints are a little lower than yesterday, the humidity is still noticeable.

Unlike many recent days, regional radar shows some activity east of the mountains, but at mid afternoon it was limited to the Eastern Shore west of Ocean City, near the heads of the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, and over the Blue Ridge south of I-66. At post time, a more extensive line of storms extends from central Pennsylvania southwestward across extreme western Maryland and into West Virginia.

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Very warm, humid, chance of showers, then cooler. Warm and humid conditions will last through this evening with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will arrive by morning with lows in the low to mid 60s and some upper 50s to the west. Any remaining clouds tomorrow morning will give way to a mostly sunny day with decreasing humidity and highs 79-83°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

The area of interest in the western Caribbean has not become any more organized today, and the tentatively scheduled reconnaissance flight was canceled.

Political Science

Chairman Edward J. Markey of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming issued a statement in reaction to Sunday's WaPo op-ed piece by Bjorn Lomborg (see yesterday's update). For more background on Lomborg, see "Bjorn Lomborg feels a chill" (log in or watch the Visa ad) and a special edition of Grist Magazine at the time of his first book's publication. SourceWatch also provides an abundance of additional history and links. SciAm did an extensive critique by four specialists in 2002.