Anticipation: Keeping Us WaitingScattered afternoon and evening storms expected

** Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Until 8 PM **

Now

Warm, humid, chance of thunderstorms. After days of anticipation of rain, humidity has crept up a little bit more overnight. A substantial area of thunderstorms moving southeastward from eastern West Virginia and the Maryland panhandle was keeping itself together, but weakening as it crossed I-81 by mid afternoon, giving the best prospect in recent days for some storms in the metro area. Temperatures are quite warm, exceeding 90° in most places shortly after noon, with some southern spots like Fredericksburg and Stafford reaching the mid 90s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, chance of thunderstorms, some possibly severe. Based on the approaching area of storms, the chance of rain has increased to 50% through this evening. Some storms may be locally severe. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s downtown to the upper 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny, warm, and humid with highs 89-94° and a 30% chance of afternoon or evening thundershowers.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Under the Radar

It doesn't seem to have been reported in the press, but the aptly-named Rep. Flake of Arizona kept the vote on a science appropriations bill waiting on Thursday by submitting a series of amendments. Among them was one to remove $720K in funding for a Doppler radar system at the Meteorology Dept. of Valparaiso University in Indiana. According to his remarks, Mr. Flake apparently still believes as he was taught that

"the best way to tell the weather was to stick your arm out the window of the vehicle as we were going down a farm road."

The amendment was defeated by voice vote. See p. H8628 of the Congressional Record for details.

More Political Science

The Union of Concerned Scientists has announced the winner of the Scientific Integrity Editorial Cartoon Contest. The UCS web site has a handy alphabetical list by agency, including Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and NASA. Among the several NOAA examples of political interference are:

• Taking sides on the hurricane intensity issue
• Selective approval of global warming media interviews
• Requiring "minders" at interviews

Check out the new Hill Heat site for the latest news on Capitol Hill climate change activities.

More Mugginess

Now

Warm, a little more humid. Under the influence of southeasterly to southerly breezes, temperatures have returned to the 90° range in the Washington metro area with National reaching at least 90° and Dulles 92°. Humidity levels have also been generally higher today, although mid afternoon dewpoint readings were only in the low 60s in most places. On radar, shower activity is widely scattered and generally confined to the mountains of West Virginia.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, slight chance of showers. There is a very slight chance of an isolated shower through this evening. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s downtown to the upper 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be much like today with a slight chance (20%) of afternoon or evening thundershowers and highs 88-92°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topix

Palm Beach Post opinion columnist Frank Cerabino offered his take on the Proenza affair at the National Hurricane Center yesterday: "Complaining up a storm at the NOAA". Among his suggestions for improving the work environment:
"8 - 9 a.m. - Bagels, cage-free omelets made to order and fresh brewed Colombian coffee flown in daily on a hurricane hunter plane.
9 - 9:30 a.m. - Sharing time. Staffers swap stories about children, or discuss highlights of TV shows from the previous evening."

DC: Deficits Continue

Now

Warm, a little more humid. Weak southerly flow both aloft and at the surface east of the low pressure area stuck over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is bringing in slightly more humid air this afternoon. Temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are not oppressive for late July, however. Shower activity is extremely spotty through the entire Mid Atlantic region.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, slight chance of showers. Humidity will continue to gradually increase through tomorrow. After a slight chance of showers through this evening, lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70° downtown and in the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be a little warmer with highs 86-90° and a slight chance (20%) of afternoon or evening thundershowers.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Precipitative Poverty

The 60-day map of precipitation percentage of average from the National Weather Service shows widespred areas of 25-50% (dark orange) across the region. Through central Loudoun Co., much of southern Maryland, and the Northern Neck of Virginia, red areas indicate only 10-25% of average.

Tropical Topix

The National Hurricane Center has implemented a new Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.

Yesterday's WaPo Federal Diary reviewed the recent management turmoil at the National Hurricane Center. Diarist Stephen Barr astutely notes, "the NOAA team found that problems at the hurricane center run deeper than any concerns about [ousted former Director] Proenza." The agency report says,

"Simply replacing the director will not resolve the center's workplace issues. If staff morale and long-standing organizational issues are not addressed, they will hinder the center's longer-term ability to accomplish its mission."

Mediarology

The Weather Channel's "Heat Week" continues tonight on Abrams and Bettes and Evening Edition.

Summer Reruns

Now

Sunny, cooler, much less humid. The weather sometimes goes in cycles. Here's the PM Update from exactly one month ago: "The cold front which passed through in the early morning hours has brought with it sunny, cooler, and less humid conditions for the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low to mid 80s, dewpoints were in the much more comfortable 50s, and a refreshing northwesterly breeze was gusting to 25 mph at times."

Those words apply equally well today. At post time, National and Dulles are both at 84°, and the dewpoints are New-England-like 52° and 49° respectively. Even the light rainfall amounts from the frontal passage were comparable, although the exact totals this time were: National 0.06", Dulles 0.08", BWI 0.00".

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Book Nook

As PM Update also posted exactly a month ago, Chris Mooney, author of the new book, "Storm World", will be at Politics and Prose tomorrow night at 6:00. The book is profiled in the latest Wired magazine and was recently reviewed in the LaTi and IHT. The author was interviewed about the book in the HouChro earlier this week.

Chance of Storms, Then Cooler Weekend Ahead Watch Out for Falling Googlenopes

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect until 10pm *

Now

Warm, humid, scattered thunderstorms. Yesterday's forecast indicated that the chance of showers would increase today, but for many places, that increase has only been from none to slim. A midafternon storm brought strong winds and some downed trees to areas south of the Beltway, but National picked up only 0.05" of rain, and even about 20 minutes of a heavy thunderstorm was good for just 0.07" at Dulles. In this part of MoCo just a few miles north of the Beltway, the rain was barely enough to dampen the ground, despite the grumble of thunder. In the storm to the south, Quantico reported a wind gust to 63 mph.

Temperatures, which had reached at least 92° at National before the storm, were mainly in the 70s by 4pm where it had rained.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through this evening. Tomorrow will be a transition day on the way to what until this very moment was a Googlenope: "spectacular July weekend weather".

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, chance of showers, then turning cooler. The chance of showers or thunderstorms, some possibly severe, is 50% through this evening. Mostly cloudy and humid conditions will continue overnight with lows in the mid 70s downtown to some upper 60s in the 'burbs. Clouds will decrease tomorrow along with lower humidity and highs 84-87°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Geek Chic

Ever wonder what kind of gear Sue Palka has at home? Today's WaPo Home section is packed with information for the home weather geek, from basic gear to weather vanes and data sources, including "a mind-numbingly comprehensive and entertaining look at Washington's weather."

Political Science

Today's House hearing on the Proenza affair at the National Hurricane Center was mainly a snoozefest, adding little to what is already known on the subject. Adm. Lautenbacher was clearly much more at home in the Congressional spotlight than ousted Director Proenza, but hardly any new light was shed on what really occurred. Committee Republicans were so persistent in their party-line refrain of, "Nothing to see here but a personnel matter, just move on," that it just raised more questions about what might have been covered up. The Academy Award for Most Juvenile Whining goes to former committee chairman [Non-]Sensenbrenner, who repeatedly attempted to derail the proceedings at the outset with demands that Proenza not be allowed to testify because his prepared remarks were not submitted in advance. Failing that, he then demanded that the Admiral be allowed to pull rank by testifying first. For more of the tedious details, check out the Miami Herald, "Proenza defiant despite critical storm center report".

Muggies for Muggles: They're Baack!

Now

Hot, humid, scattered showers. You don't need to be a weather wizard to notice that the muggies are back in town after a very brief hiatus. As Jason's dewpoint plot showed earlier, soup's on in the National Capital region. The increased juiciness was good for only a trace of precipitation around lunch time at both National and Dulles. The PM Update mobile unit observed a few drops near the northern portions of the Beltway in MoCo, but they could have been easily counted individually.

At mid afternoon, radar showed showers scattered from near Baltimore northeastward toward Philadelphia and across central New Jersey, but that activity has continued to diminish south of the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures in the area currently range from the upper 80s to low 90s.

Mugginess will persist, and chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase for the next couple of days, but an extremely fine weekend for July continues to be shaping up.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Hot, humid, chance of showers. Hazy, warm, and humid conditions will continue through this evening, with only a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm and lows in the mid to upper 70s in the city and low 70s to near 70° in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will again be hot and humid with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the late afternoon or evening. Highs will be in the range of 90-96°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology

The first half hour of today's Kojo Nnamdi show on WAMU-FM discussed the management situation at the National Hurricane Center. Among the guests was the Miami Herald's 30-year veteran hurricane reporter Martin Merzer. If you missed the live broadcast, you can feed your audio device at the show's website.

Political Science

Continuing with the theme of tropical festivities, tomorrow's joint hearing regarding NHC by 2 subcommittees from the House Committee on Science and Technology will include oustee Bill Proenza in Panel I and ouster NOAA Adm. Lautenbacher in Panel III. At post time, the C-SPAN schedule did not indicate whether the hearings would be broadcast, but a webcast is scheduled on the committee website.

Today's Miami Herald article, "U.S. House to review storm-center probe", previews the hearing. The HouChro's SciGuy asks, "Where are the forecasters?" and has some earlier discussion as well.

Mugginess to Return After Short Respite

Now

Hot, but less humid. A bubble of drier air to the north of a "cold" front slid into the Mid Atlantic area overnight, bringing considerably more comfortable humidity (dewpoints 10-15° lower than yesterday) to the area, despite temperatures generally in the low 90s. By 5pm, National had reached at least 92°, and Dulles was 93°. As that front moves back northward, mugginess and the chance of thunderstorms will increase before a significant cooldown arrives for the weekend.

Surface/satellite/radar weather map at 2pm today from Intellicast

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing humidity, chance of showers. Comfortably warm and clear conditions this evening will lead to lows overnight in the low 70s downtown and the mid to upper 60s in the 'burbs. Mugginess will increase tomorrow, along with the chance (40%) of showers or thunderstorms late in the day. Highs tomorrow will be 89-92°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Summer in the City

This week's WaPo "Secret Worlds of Summer" article, "The Life Aquatic" talks about the water lillies at Kenilworth Aquatic Gardens in Northeast Washington.

Mediarology

This week's episode of Tornado Diary focuses on storm chasing (WETA, Channel 26, 9pm).

Tropical Topics

Yesterday's blog post by TWC's Dr. Steve Lyons considers why tropical storms develop or not using a very interesting plexiglass analogy.

It ain't over yet: Today's Miami Herald reports, "Proenza hearing may stir new fury", that ousted Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza and NOAA chief Adm. Lautenbacher are both scheduled to testify at Thursday's hearing of the House Committee on Science and Technology (Room 2318 Rayburn, 10am, for the Hill groupies).