April to Become More Enchanted

Now

Cloudy, cool. A very weak low pressure area drifting through southwestern Virginia is bringing isolated sprinkles to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Once again, temperatures are in the unseasonable mid and upper 50s. Considerable reduction in the cloud cover should permit readings to return to the 60s tomorrow and even milder levels this weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clearing, milder. Scattered showers and sprinkles should end this evening, and clouds will decrease overnight with lows in the mid 40s in town and low 40s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs 63-66°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Mediarology

The Weather Channel's countdown of the 100 Biggest Weather Moments concludes tonight at 8 and 11, beginning with #20, Doppler radar.

TWC is also planning extensive coverage of Earth Day, which is this Sunday, including a special edition of Forecast Earth at 5:00. The show will feature Cheryl Crow's Stop Global Warming College Tour, which is appearing that day at GW's Smith Center at 4pm. The Tour is also scheduled for 1pm on Saturday at UMD's Cole Field House.

A second new episode of Forecast Earth at 5:30 will include a debate on the most frequent arguments of global warming skeptics, including the chronic red herring raised by many broadcast meteorologists who blindly refuse to see the forest for the trees, "If forecasters can't predict the weather 3-days out, certainly they can't forecast a year, a decade or a century out!"

Once More Upon a Midday Dreary

Now

Mostly cloudy, chilly. It wasn't exactly scarf and mittens weather for lawn mowing here at the Update ranch today, but it was certainly brisk. (The trusty Honda engine showed its finest cold-temperature starting capabilities once the out-of-practice operator remembered to turn the gas setting to "on".) Despite some earlier valiant attempts at a comeback by the sun, clouds have rolled back in over most of the region this afternoon, with temperatures again stuck in the low to mid 50s, over 10° below seasonal averages.

There is the possibility of some showers or sprinkles through tomorrow as a weak low pressure area drifts eastward from the lower Ohio Valley. Once that passes, the elements will be in place for the area's much-deserved spring warmup over the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cloudy, cool, chance of showers Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight with a 30% chance of showers and lows in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow will again be mostly cloudy with highs 54-58° and a 40% chance of showers, especially to the south and west of the metro area.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Blogospheric Climate

A tip of the rabbit ears to RealClimate and Professor Bunny for yesterday's pointers to the Green Issue (May) of Vanity Fair magazine. Featured in the special section is an article, "A Convenient Untruth", which effectively deconstructs Myron Ebell, "the denialist's denialist" (the wascally wabbit's words, not ours, so send your hate mail accordingly), of the Spin-City-based Competitive Enterprise Institute.

If you want to see what a real scientific debate is about (as opposed to Ebell's "most preposterous bullshit I've ever heard", in the words of climate scientist Tom Wigley), check out the adjoining posts (here and here) regarding the very real issue of determining trends in oceanic heat content. Warning: There are actual numbers involved, including (shudder!) exponents, so if you got your roommate to do your math for you, you might want to stick to the South Park or Simpsons versions. [This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation.]

A Mighty Wind

Now

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold. Despite some "BINOVC" (breaks in the overcast), temperatures struggled to reach 55° by 4pm this afternoon. The continuing northwesterly breeze from the remnants of Sunday's storm gusted over 30 mph at times, although it was significantly lower than yesterday.

Temperatures have now been below average for all but the first 3 days of this month. Yesterday's high of 47° was only 1° above the average low for the date. The first half of the month averaged 6.4 degrees below the long-term "normal".

Winds and clouds will continue to decrease tonight as a slow warming trend begins to get underway towards the weekend.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Under slowly decreasing clouds, lows tonight will be from the low 40s downtown to the upper 30s in 'burbistan. Tomorrow will see a little more sun and less wind than today with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Capitol Climate

Following the release of the IPCC Working Group II report a week ago Friday, the House Science and Technology Committee held a hearing today on "The State of Climate Change Science". This was one day after the publication of a more detailed 67-page chapter specifically addressing the effects of climate change on North America. Today's dead-tree WaPo covers the new report in an article, "Warming Predicted to Take Severe Toll on U.S.".

Storm Slowly Spinning Down

Now

Cloudy, cold, windy. Cold winds peaking over 50 mph in many locations throughout the region caused some power outages and prompted various school closings this afternoon. The winds were produced by the large storm system, now stalled near Long Island, which brought heavy rain and some stream flooding to the area yesterday. A few leftover showers were moving into the area this afternoon, especially to the northeast of the Beltway. Temperatures have remained stubbornly in the wintry 40s, returning to the overnight low of 42° by 4pm. Winds and clouds will slowly diminish through tomorrow as temperatures begin to moderate toward more April-like levels.

Graphic from IntelliWeather shows the huge storm, like a giant spider web, enmeshing the entire East Coast early this afternoon. Lowest pressure was a remarkable 971 mb., or 28.67".

Tonight and Tomorrow

Winds, clouds slowly diminishing. Skies will remain overcast overnight with a few light showers or snow flurries possible. Winds will decrease to around 20 mph by morning. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Some sunshine should gradually return, especially in the afternoon, tomorrow. Highs will be in the low 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Fear of Climate

Today's WaPo front page features an article, "Climate Change Scenarios Scare, and Motivate, Kids", which is ostensibly about the effect of climate change issues on young people. It manages, however, to echo probably the most bizarre denialist argument against global warming action: "It scares the kids!". Note to the WaPo's increasingly lax copy-editing department: An Armageddon is indeed "climactic", but one caused by climate change has only two c's.

April Gets Crueler: Major East-Coast Storm Developing

Now

Seasonably cold, windy. The same year as L. F. Richardson's pioneering, but ultimately unsuccessful, work in numerical weather prediction, T.S. Eliot labeled April as the "cruelest month", and today's weather models are continuing to point to a cruel rain and wind storm for the Mid Atlantic area by the second half of the weekend. The chart, issued this afternoon by HPC/NCEP/NWS, shows a widespread area of 2"+ rainfall along the East Coast for the 3 days ending Monday evening.

Meanwhile, brisk northwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph at times are limiting temperatures to the mid and upper 50s this afternoon in the Washington metro area, despite the mid-April sun through partly cloudy skies.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, cold. Winds will diminish somewhat tonight as clouds increase toward morning. Lows will be from near 40 in town to the mid 30s in the 'burbs. Showers are likely by late tomorrow afternoon, increasing in intensity overnight. Highs will be in the low 50s to near 55°.

For the detailed storm chronology, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Climate Corner

Tomorrow's nationwide Day of Climate Action was featured today on the first hour of NPR's Science Friday. The second hour covered the revival of a play about a similar "debate" in the past between science and ignorance. Podcasts will be posted to the show's web site.

Mediarology

This Sunday at 8pm, The Weather Channel begins a 5-part countdown of the "100 Biggest Weather Moments", hosted by Harry Connick, Jr.

Back to the Future

** Freeze Warning in effect 11 PM tonight to 10 AM Friday **
** Freeze Watch in effect late Friday night through Saturday morning **

Now

Cold, windy. Arctic air arriving on blustery northwest winds pushed temperatures back to wintry levels today in the Washington metro area. It took until 3pm for the official reading to get back to its midnight level of 46°. Some scattered flurries were reported in the area, but radar at mid afternoon showed flurries mainly limited to north of the Mason-Dixon line and west of I-81.

As a strong upper-level low pressure vortex continues to rotate counter-clockwise in southeastern Canada, temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, and there is the likelihood of some snow showers or flurries. At least one model is attempting to develop a storm off the Delmarva coast by Saturday morning, but that is not confirmed by the early model run this afternoon.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cold. Under mostly clear skies, lows tonight will be near freezing downtown to the mid 20s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with variable clouds, a little less wind, and highs in the upper 40s.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Climate Corner

Also returning to the spotlight this week is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose Working Group II report, "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" will be released tomorrow at a press conference in Brussels. The WaPo obtained a nearly-final draft; a front-page article today, "Climate Panel Confident Warming Is Underway", discusses the report's expected conclusions. The online WaPo also posted an article, "Report: Global Warming to Change Climate of American Southwest", this afternoon reviewing the implications of climate change in the Southwest U.S. The main conclusion is that rainfall is expected to decrease 10-20% by the end of the century.

The Weather Channel is planning to provide daylong coverage tomorrow of the new IPCC report. Check your favorite squawk radio and cable noise networks for the predictable Gore-bashing.

Spring is Busted Out All Over

** Freeze Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Saturday morning **

Now

Cloudy, chilly. Persistent clouds and an easterly wind following this morning's showers and thunderstorms have busted numerous forecasts of warmer readings in the Washington metro area this afternoon. At mid afternoon, temperatures were generally in the low to mid 50s, while even colder air is poised to arrive for the rest of the week and weekend along with the possibility of some snow showers.

All three major local airports reported thunderstorms early this morning, but these had all moved well offshore by early afternoon. Some sun was peeking through the clouds late in the afternoon.

Photo of cherry blossoms earlier this week by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Decreasing clouds, colder. Clouds will decrease and winds will increase overnight as lows drop to the mid and upper 30s in the city and near freezing in the coolest parts of 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 40s to near 50°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics: Meet the Hurricane Guy

This month's meeting of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society features the new Director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Proenza. His presentation topic is, "Challenges in Warning and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones". The meeting at the new Rockville library begins with a light dinner at 6:00 next Wednesday, April 11. Cost is $15 for members and $20 for non-members. RSVP information (deadline Monday) is on the meeting web page.

Seal Hunt Impacted by Ice Conditions

Today's WaPo, in a story headlined, "Warming Thins Herd for Canada's Seal Hunt", reports that the beginning of the annual Canadian seal hunt has been affected by poor ice conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence: "Canadian authorities reduced the quotas on the harp seal hunt by about 20 percent after overflights showed large numbers of seal pups were lost to thin and melting ice in the lower part of the gulf, off Prince Edward Island." Among other press reporting on the event are the Winnipeg Sun and The Economist.