Oscar-Winning Performance

Now

Sunny, warm. Reflecting the fickleness of the season, temperatures are as much as 30° warmer this afternoon than yesterday in the Washington metro area. Readings in the mid 70s in many locations are providing a nearly perfect spring weather performance. Some showers may arrive tonight along with a weak cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds increasing, chance of showers, cooler. Clouds will increase this evening, and there is a 40% chance of showers overnight. Lows will be mainly in the low 50s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers likely and cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Political Science

Yesterday's latest performance of the Capitol Hill Climate Follies was reviewed with trademark snarkiness by the WaPo's inimitable Dana Milbank. The Academy Award for best quote goes to Republican Roscoe Bartlett from right here in Maryland:

"It's possible to be a conservative without appearing to be an idiot."

Note to the clueless: Yes, it is an "observational column about political theater", not a news story. That's why it has a title, "Washington Sketch". (And while we can only aspire to the snark level of the pros here in the nerve-enclosed glass center of PM Update, we also clearly separate the science from the opinion. See the subtitle up there? It says, "Political Science".)

Also providing reviews were the NYTi, SFChron, ChiTri, and Beeb, as well as the usual suspects, such as the AP (via BoGlo and others).

Photo: Inhofe gives Gore a finger after giving him the figurative Finger in Senate hearings yesterday, from the WaPo. Destroy the decor of any room with your own copy suitable for framing. (Offer void for Netscape users and where otherwise prohibited.)

Winter Springs Back Temporarily

Now

Mostly cloudy, chilly. Cloudy skies and an easterly to southeasterly breeze have brought a wintry chill back to the Washington metro area today with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s (about 12° below "normal") this afternoon. A warm front approaching from the southwest should bring much more springlike conditions tomorrow.

Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds decreasing, warmer. Mostly overcast skies tonight will give way to increasing sunshine tomorrow. There is a less than 20% chance of a sprinkle or light shower tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s and highs tomorrow will be 67-71°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Political Science

Former V.P. Gore testified to overflow crowds at a joint hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Science and Technology Commitee this morning and a hearing of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this afternoon. The hearing topics were "Perspectives on Climate Change" and "Perspective on Global Warming". The Senate hearings were carried live on C-SPAN3, so will probably be available for future rebroadcast. If you watch the video, be sure not to miss Sen. Inhofe's breathtakingly juvenile ad hominem whining at approximately 1 hour into the hearing.

The Sun Marches On

Now

Sunny, mild. Helped by a maximum sun elevation of 50°, temperatures rose into the 60s this afternoon in the Washington metro area, despite a northerly wind gusting over 20 mph at times. National was 63° by mid afternoon, and Dulles was 60°, while some upper 60s were reported in the southern fringe of the region. A glancing blow from a Canadian Arctic air mass will give a brief reminder of winter tomorrow before temperatures rebound to more springlike levels.

CapitalWeather.com chart based on Eq. 2.9 in Stull, Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, cold. Under mainly clear skies, temperatures will drop tonight to the low and mid 30s in town and the mid 20s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon and highs only 46-49°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Political Science

Today was Climate Crisis Action Day here in the Nation's Capital. The event to "call on Congress to pass the Arctic Wilderness Act and legislation to stop the threat of global warming" was sponsored by a number of environmental groups.

Yesterday's House Oversight and Government Reform Committee climate report hearings were covered in the CQ, LATi, NYTi, and even as far away as Australia and New Zealand, but here in Spin City, the WaPo apparently carried only the AP report online.

Back in the Groove Again

Now

Partly sunny, mild. After nearly ¾ of a month in which only 2 days have been within less than 5° above or below the daily average, today's weather in the Washington metro area is downright boring. Temperatures have reached the mid 50s under increasing clouds as a low pressure area in southern Canada moves eastward.

Although the Washington-Baltimore region has remained dry, precipitation has been not very far away, with a wintry mix indicated on radar at mid afternoon from near Harrisburg, PA northward to an area of snow through much of central PA and northern NJ. Some rain showers may make it into the metro area tonight as a cold front brings in drier skies tomorrow.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. There is a 50% chance of showers overnight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds will decrease tomorrow morning with breezy afternoon highs in the mid 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Political Science

The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held over 4½ hours of hearings today, continuing its "examination of evidence and allegations of political interference with the work of government climate change scientists under the current Administration." Advance copies of testimony and other documents are available on the committee web site. The hearings were carried on C-SPAN radio, but they are not listed on the network's TV schedule.

Wintry Storm Developing Heavy rain, some snow to follow temperature drop

*Flood Watch in Effect Friday Morning Through Friday Evening*
*Winter Storm Watch in Effect (N&W) Friday Morning Through Friday Evening*

Now

Showers, breezy, turning colder. After reaching the low and mid 70s earlier, temperatures have dropped sharply in the Washington metro area with increasing northerly breezes. As the cold air is reinforced tonight, highs tomorrow will be 30° or more colder than they were today.

In the meantime, an ample supply of moisture which brought flooding rains to the Gulf Coast will feed into a developing low pressure area in the lower Mississippi Valley. As the low strengthens along the Atlantic Coast, heavy precipitation will affect the Mid Atlantic region tomorrow. Although this is likely to be mostly rain from DC south and east, a large pool of Arctic air will be anchored over eastern Canada, in a perfect position to provide frozen precipitation to the north and west, especially at higher elevations. In the immediate metro area, accumulations, if any, are likely to be minimal.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Much colder, heavy rain and some snow developing. Showers this evening will diminish somewhat as the main rainfall area develops to the south. Temperatures will continue to fall, reaching the mid and upper 30s by morning. Steadier precipitation beginning as rain by the early morning hours will continue, heavy at times, through most of the day tomorrow with temperatures steady or dropping through the mid 30s.

Although there is likely to be heavy snow in the mountains and accumulating snow in Frederick and Loudoun counties, there is a great deal of uncertainty for areas inside and near the Beltway because of uncertain temperature, both near the surface and higher up in the atmosphere. Based on the latest data, here are Team CapitalWeather.com's most likely scenarios for tomorrow in the immediate metro area:

Scenario 1: Mostly rain, possibly mixing with and changing to snow. No accumulation.
Scenario 2: Rain, mixing with and changing to sleet, changing to snow late in the afternoon. Slushy accumulation of 1" or so on grassy areas.
Scenario 3: Rain changing to sleet to snow from west to east late morning to early afternoon. Snow, heavy at times, through the evening. Possibly messy rush hour. Accumulation of several inches possible, mostly on grassy areas except during periods of heavy precipitation, 6"+ Loudoun/Frederick Co.

The most likely scenario at this time is #2. We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops and update with an accumulation map or probability chart if necessary later tonight.

Spring Continues, but Winter Waits in the Wings

Now

Partly sunny, very warm. A retreat of the jet stream northward into Canada has allowed early spring warmth to flood most of the country today, with freezing temperatures limited to a tiny sliver of northern Minnesota and North Dakota. Readings in the 60s reached into much of New England, and the Mid Atlantic region saw many low 80s. In the metro area, Dulles was 81° by 2pm, but the local readings were short of the upper 80s in the great March heat wave of 1990, during which Dulles set 6 consecutive daily records, including its all-time March record of 89° on the 12th.

A strong cold front working its way southward over the next couple of days will bring more wintry conditions back by the weekend.

Temperature chart at 2pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance of showers. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight with only a slight chance of showers and lows in the mid 50s (near or above the average highs for this time of year). Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, highs 73-76°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Mediaorology: DC destruction

It seems to have flown in below the radar screen, but Sunday's WaPo previewed the latest installment of The Weather Channel's disaster mockumentary, "It Could Happen Tomorrow". In "It", an imagined F-4 tornado rampages through Spin City, going right up the mall at 5pm on a Friday, "through the Washington Monument, between the museums and smack into the Capitol dome!" (There's no word on the fate of K Street.) In the tradition of the series, it uses a nearby event, the La Plata tornado of 2002, as a model for the DC destruction. The show, which premiered Sunday night, will be repeated soon and often in true TWC fashion. Look for it at 9:30pm Friday and 12:30am and 2:30am Saturday morning.

Graphic from The Weather Channel

January Rerun: That 70s Show

Now

Sunny, warm. The official temperature was limited by a southerly river breeze, but nearly all reporting locations in the Washington metro area were well into the 70s for the first time since early January this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. On the southern fringes of the region, Fredericksburg was 81° at 4pm. Warm temperatures will continue tomorrow with some showers possible, but colder conditions will return by the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, warm, chance of showers. Tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 40s to near 50°. Clouds will increase tomorrow with a 30% chance of scattered showers or possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon and highs in the mid 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Disaster Preparedness

Today is Tornado Preparedness Day in Virginia. The Emergency Alert System was activated statewide at 9:45am, and schools and businesses carried out tornado drills with over 70,000 registered participants. Information on preparing for and responding to tornadoes is available on the state's Department of Emergency Management web site.