Freshly Frozen Friday

Now

Partly cloudy, cold. As advertised, the arctic attack last night was sharp, but it was a glancing blow to the Mid Atlantic area. Lows in the teens (15° at both National and Dulles) were the coldest so far this season, but winds shifting to a more southerly direction by noon have allowed readings to rebound to freezing or slightly above (still about 10° below average). The high of 33° means that we have still had only 1 day with a high at or below 32° this month, compared with the 30-year average of 5.2. Tomorrow's mildness will also be short-lived, however. The next icy blast looks longer-lasting, but less intense locally, at least to begin with.

Temperature chart at 7am today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Not as cold. Skies will be mostly to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 20s downtown and near 20° in the outer 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and seasonably mild with highs in the upper 40s.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Climate Corner

The draft report of the IPCC, scheduled to be released next Friday, continues to leak like a Greenland moulin. ABC News reported it had obtained a copy of the draft. ABC (Australia) also covered the story: "UN panel strengthens climate warning". Reuters distributed a report, "Warming to raise seas for 1,000 years". Where is the Paper of Watergate? So far, the only hit on a search of "IPCC" at the WaPo is for the online AP story we linked to a few days ago.

The political noise machine is predictably already gearing up for full attack mode. The Letters section of the noted science journal West Salem Coulee News is also chiming in.

Mediarology

Last Sunday's Climate Code on the Weather Channel (at its new time of 5:30) featured a survey of the 10 greenest large cities in the U.S. from SustainLane. Your Nation's Capital is number 12 in the rankings, one position behind Charm City. The program is repeated tomorrow evening at 5:30, 7:30 and 11:30.

14K Cold

Now

Scattered flurries, cold. The scattered flakes flying around the Washington metro area today created a flurry of interest, but not much else, in this snow-starved season. To the west, a couple of inches were reported over the ridges. Temperatures leveled out at mid afternoon in the upper 30s as Arctic air settled in over the region; technically, the high was 39° near midnight. (Friendly memo to Topper: Your presentation at 11pm of temperatures falling all day had PM Update scratching its head wondering what it had missed yesterday.)

The more "industrial strength" chill, as described by Bob R, moves in overnight, although considering the quick rebound likely on Saturday, it seems to be more of the "home office" variety. Another, stronger icy blast is in the pipeline for late weekend arrival.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Flurries possible, clearing, colder. A few scattered flurries are possible (30% chance) as temperatures continue to fall overnight, with lows near 20° in the city and low to mid teens in the 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 20s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

It's All Relative

Recent temperatures have been much more January-like, and there is more of that on tap, but the fact remains that, with only a week remaining, the month has yet to put together a string of more than 3 consecutive below-average days. Although it won't last, the earlier warm readings have kept the month to date average of 43.4° in the top 10 of all Januaries in Washington. Heating degree days, a measure of the amount of fuel required for heating, are down 28% from average.

As noted in yesterday's Today in Weather History, the long-term averages have now begun their gradual climb toward the annual peak in August. For the snow lovers, however, there's still February to look forward to.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Threat Level: Elevated for Cold

Now

Variable cloudiness, seasonably cold. After some scattered flurries, temperatures have peaked out near 40° in the Washington metro area. Colder and drier air will be moving in late tomorrow and into Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, turning colder. Mostly cloudy skies tonight will give way to more sunshine tomorrow afternoon as colder air filters into the region. There is a chance of scattered flurries as the cold air moves in. Lows tonight will be from near 30° downtown to the mid and upper 20s in the 'burbosphere. Highs tomorrow will be near 37°, but turning colder late in the day and at night.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Hollywood Report

"An Inconvenient Truth" has been nominated for an Academy Award in the documentary category. The movie trailer is available online in Google Video, along with several other related videos. (Flash 7 or higher required, running time 1:37). See the 50-foot wall of water crush New York . . . Not!

Weather Humor

The Weather Channel, specifically, the Climate Code, was cited as the #1 item in the Colbert Report Threatdown last night, beating out even CNN, for reporting the truth about a phony Barack Obama story, and the "tree-huggers" of "The Wizard of Oz". The reason, of course, was its hidden agenda: Bears!

Video is available at ComedyCentral.com. (Look for the Threatdown Media Edition.) For TiVo fans, the segment begins at 0:13 of the show. The program is repeated tonight at 8:30. Make your own weather Threatdowns and submit them via the image upload function of the Comments section. The most humorous will appear in a future PM Update.

The Onion reported this story in its Jan. 24 Daily Dispatch:

Northeast Stunned By Freak January Snowfall
SYRACUSE, NY--"I've seen some freak weather, but this definitely tops them all," said area resident Mary Baloh, whose garden was slightly set back by the 1.5-inch snowfall.

Sunday's Snow Mostly Memory

Now

Sunny, seasonable. Temperatures have been very near seasonable averages in the Washington metro area under partly cloudy skies this afternoon after some scattered light flurries this morning. Conditions will remain similar through tomorrow as the next cold shot prepares to arrive for the end of the week.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, seasonably cold. Skies will be partly cloudy through tomorrow with lows tonight in the upper 20s downtown to the low 20s in the 'burbosphere. There is a slight chance of scattered flurries through tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow: around 40°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Sunday's Snow

Sunday's snow event was forecast very well by CapitalWeather.com, based on reports submitted by commenters. For a map of submitted reports, see here. Official reports were: National 1.2", Dulles 1.6", BWI 0.9". Pictures of the event uploaded by site visitors are available at Flickr. Thank you, submitters!

One Degree of Separation

With the release in 10 days of the long-awaited IPCC climate report, leaks have already begun on its contents. An AP report, headlined "Report has 'smoking gun' on climate", has been widely published today, including in the silicon-based WaPo. The NYT also had a piece, "New Warnings on Climate Change" by environmental reporter Andrew Revkin on Saturday. The radical contrarians should be delighted to hear that the draft report says it is only somewhat more than "90 percent likely that global warming since 1950 has been driven mainly by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases."

Transcripts and audio files of a briefing last week on the background to the IPCC report are available at the National Environmental Trust web site.

Meanwhile, one of the USA Today Weather Guys, an AMS Seal holder, has published a remarkably non-paranoid (meaning for this issue, not for him) post on the Heidi Cullen "controversy". Andrew's Undercast posted yesterday got a tip of the Rabett ears from the somewhat mysterious, but very insightful, Prof. Rabett, to whom we linked last week on the global warming/El Niño issue. Also showing considerable insight are the comments to Andrew's post from Brian of Erie.

Today's WaPo has a front-page article discussing how "Internal Rifts Cloud Democrats' Opportunity on Warming".

Degrees of Separation

Now

Windy, chilly. A late-morning frontal passage which was much more of a humidity drop than a temperature change, strong downsloping winds, and abundant sunshine have separated the forecasts from the observations today in the Washington metro area. Temperatures have reached the upper 40s and even 50° in some favored locations, including Quantico and Culpeper. The high at National of 48° brings an end to the string of below-average days at 2.

A reinforcing shot of cold air from the Great Lakes region should lower readings tomorrow on brisk northwest winds while a low pressure area becomes organized in the southern branch of the jet stream over the Gulf States for possible action late in the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, windy, colder. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with lows in the upper 20s downtown, mid and lower 20s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny and windy with highs in the mid 30s.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend and the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

One Degree of Separation

The uproar started by the posting on the web site of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works that we noted yesterday has continued. Dr. Heidi Cullen has a response, "A Very Political Climate", on her blog, a video response, and an interview with Mike Bettes on the One Degree web site.

Christopher Mims has a posting on the Scientific American editors' blog, "Now Hold On, People - Sen. James Inhofe vs. The Weather Channel" . If you thought you detected the pungent whiff of Swift Boat fumes in the Senate Committee statement, Mims has a good explanation: "Senator Inhofe's Pet Weasel", from another SciAm editor. SourceWatch has more details.

Seeing Green

If the politicization of climate change has you upset, Jim Jubak of TheStreet.com has the ultimate pragmatic solution. Whatever your opinion on the subject, you can "Turn a Profit From Global-Warming Stocks".

Even if you think that global warming is based on bad statistics and unconvincing computer models . . .The deck is stacked at the moment in favor of action on global warming. Even if global warming winds up on the rubbish heap of discredited scientific theories, entities such as the European Union, Japan, China, India and even the U.S. are going to adopt a program that looks a whole lot like one designed to stop global warming because it fits each nation's need to increase its energy security as well.

Mediarology

Today's SciFri on NPR featured an interview with Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, on recent extreme weather. Also on the program was David Goldston, former chief of staff for the House Committee on Science, speaking on the prospects for climate change legislation in the new Congress. Audio should be posted around 6pm, according to the web site.

Stick a Fork In It

Now

Cloudy, cold. It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings, and it most certainly may not be over for more northerly latitudes, but this particular "event" is pretty much history for the nation's capital and vicinity. An extremely weak low pressure area (1022 mb for those keeping score at home) off the far southeastern Atlantic Coast still shows the potential to "bomb out," providing a distinctly winter experience for northern New England in the next day or so, but the light showers and flurries associated with the coastal front extending northward from the low have been quite unimpressive for the local region. To the north, Philadelphia has picked up a whopping 0.01" of precipitation in the form of light snow, followed by another 0.01" of freezing rain and drizzle.

Meanwhile, the front has helped hold the cold air in, with temperatures barely creeping into the mid 30s. Highs were 35° at 2 of the 3 major airports; Dulles was 34°.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Slight chance of showers or flurries, then breezy and cold. There is still a very slight chance of light showers or flurries, especially to the east, through this evening. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the upper 20s to near 30°. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and becoming windy with highs moderating to around 40°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond, including the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball and Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Capitol Climate

The climate for action on climate policy has changed with the new Congress, according to an article, "Bills on Climate Move to Spotlight in New Congress," in today's NYT. The silicon-based version also includes a graphic depicting the potential effects on greenhouse gas emissions of several alternative proposed bills.

One thing which hasn't changed in the new Congress (other than a switch in labels from "majority" to "minority") is the continuing vehement attack on global warming and its advocates from the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. The latest, a blog post criticizing The Weather Channel's Heidi Cullen, was featured on today's Drudge Report. (Well, actually, it was below and to the left of the UFO article.)

The main point is the assertion that Dr. Cullen advocates that the AMS "revoke" the Seal of Approval from those "who do not agree" with her position. Here's the quote from her blog: "If a meteorologist can't speak to the fundamental science of climate change, then maybe the AMS shouldn't give them a Seal of Approval." Where does that demand either decertification or agreement with a particular position? In fact, the AMS, presumably with considerable input from those potentially affected, already has included climatology and climate change as a major category in the study guide for its new Certified Broadcast Meteorologist Program.

Since the EPW Committee minority doesn't like to get climate science from climate scientists, where do they get their "Facts of the Day"? From a science fiction writer whose main scientific credential is that he graduated from medical school.

Their advocacy for dissent is particularly ironic for a blog which has no provision for comments. Yours, of course, are welcome at the link below, but please keep the discussion civil. It also helps to give specific, factual reasons and sources for your opinions if you wish to be taken seriously.

Graphic from nytimes.com.

Chilly Con Sensus: Snow Included?

Now

Clear, cold. Despite sunny skies and diminishing winds, temperatures barely reached the mid 30s in the Washington metro area today. After morning lows of 23° at National and 22° at Dulles, highs were 34° and 33°. A weak area of low pressure developing along the Southeast coast bears watching for late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Tonight

Cold, light winds. Under mostly clear skies, light winds, and low humidity, temperatures will drop again tonight, but some clouds toward morning will probably limit the lows to around 25° in the city and near 20° in the 'burbs.

Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, light precipitation developing. Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon, and there is a 30% chance of light rain by evening, especially south and east of the immediate metro area. Highs will be near 40°. Light rain could mix with some wet snow tomorrow evening with minimal if any accumulation. Precipitation will end overnight with lows mainly in the low 30s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Our Consensus View

Yes, we know the NWS was briefly calling for a 1-2" accumulation (they have since backed off). They are dedicated, highly experienced professionals and have our complete respect, but that forecast was made before the afternoon model runs were complete. Based on the latest available data, the forecast given here is the consensus view of the CapitalWeather.com team. We will continue to monitor the situation and update if conditions require. Your views, as always, are welcome in the comments section using the link at the bottom of this post.

By the way, here is a good example of the value of consensus forecasting: Jason's Monday forecast of today's high was 31°. Mr. Update, despite the benefit of a shorter lead time, said 37° as of yesterday. Do a little arithmetic and compare the average of these 2 forecasts with the actual highs listed above.

How Many Meteorologists Does It Take to Change the Weather?

You may have heard in the media about the unusually nasty winter weather in central and southern Texas. What you may not have heard is the reason for this. No, it's not Global Warming. It's not even a vast left-wing media conspiracy to contaminate the precious bodily fluids of the American people. In fact, this week is the 87th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Antonio. This means that probably the largest concentration of meteorologists anywhere in the world has convened for a number of concurrent conferences and symposia.

Monday's meeting newsletter detailed some of the travel challenges faced by the attendees. A major winter storm also hit San Antonio during the AMS meeting in 1982, and the temperature dropped to 14°.