Slow Burn

Now

Cloudy, foggy. Pervasive low clouds and fog, with even some mist and drizzle thrown in, have been mightily resistant to burning off today in the Washington metro area, resulting in a slow burn by meteorologists over busted temperature forecasts. Temperatures have struggled to reach even the mid and upper 60s in most places, although by 4pm, the robo-observer at Fredericksburg was reporting clear skies (below 12,000 feet, anyway) and 73°.

A cold front and developing low pressure area approaching from the Ohio Valley will bring increasing chances of showers late tonight and part of tomorrow before it moves off to bring heavy rain to northern New England.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers likely, then cooler. Lows tonight under overcast skies will be in the upper 50s. The chance of showers is 70% by morning. Showers are likely tomorrow morning, possibly a few thunderstorms, with decreasing clouds in the afternoon and early highs in the mid 60s, but turning cooler later.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Energy Watch: Being Green

If you're interested in reducing the amount of energy you burn and possibly saving some green as well, the recent NYT article, "The Energy Diet", is number 16 on the paper's list of most popular emailed articles in the last 30 days. The author, Andrew Postman, appeared on today's WAMU-FM Kojo Nnamdi show. Real Audio and Windoze Media streaming audio are available on the station's web site.

(In the interest of "fair and balanced" coverage, Instapundit responds from the right.)

Image from New York Times

Frost is Off the Pumpkin

Now

Sunny, warm. Yesterday's chilly rain has been replaced by warm October sun in the Washington metro area. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the mid to upper 70s, with exurb Fredericksburg reporting 81° for about the last 3 hours. Summery dewpoints in the low to mid 60s were adding a hint of mugginess as well. Another warm day is on tap for tomorrow before the next storm system developing in the Ohio Valley helps bring in some Gulf moisture for rain or showers tomorrow night and into Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Continued Warm. Skies will be mainly clear tonight, but without any drying, lows are unlikely to be much below 60° in most places. Some fog is probable in low-lying areas. Tomorrow will again be mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid 70s, but with cloudiness increasing late in the day.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

The Future Ain't What It Used to Be

Issue 14.09 (September) of Wired Magazine has an article, "Storm Center", reviewing the tradeoffs between form and function in the design of the new NOAA Satellite Operations Facility in the venerable Suitland Federal Center. In replacing the old mission control in an "asbestos-riddled, flood-prone, former World War II-era hospital", the techno-geeks said, "Save money! Just build us a box." The architect, however, took a broader view, given that the cost of his futuristic design was only about 8 hours of Iraq War. (Before you start the political flames, that's his quote, not mine!) The building is scheduled to begin operations this fall.

Image from Wired Magazine

Soggy to Sunny

Now

Showers, cool. Heavy rain at times today has given way to lighter showers and drizzle this afternoon in most of the Washington metro area. Radar shows the heavier showers retreating eastward of I-95 near Washington and I-83 north of Baltimore.

Of the 3 major regional airports, National has the least amount so far with just over ½" by late afternoon, bringing the monthly total of around 3" close to the long-term average for the whole month of October. BWI has the most with almost an inch. Accumulations were somewhat higher to the west at Frederick and Hagerstown, which are now both over 1".

With the heavier clouds moving eastward, some breaks in the overcast are apparent west of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures are generally within a degree or two of 60°.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradual clearing, becoming warmer. A few showers and some drizzle and fog will linger through this evening. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s with clouds beginning to decrease toward morning. Tomorrow will be mainly sunny, especially in the afternoon, and warmer, highs in the mid 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology: Aviation and El Niño

The deadliest aviation accident in history occurred in 1977 when two fully loaded jumbo jets collided, killing 583 passengers and crew. The crash was weather-related, but it happened on the ground. The PBS science series NOVA investigates the circumstances tonight (8pm on WETA 26 and WMPT 22).

NPR's "Living on Earth" interviewed Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, on El Niño last Friday. A transcript and podcast are available on the show's website. The program is broadcast on WETA 90.9 FM, Tuesdays from 10pm to 11pm.

Crisp Turns to Damp

Now

Increasing clouds, cool. A thickening high overcast moving literally over the top of a slowly retreating high pressure area (1024 mb/30.26" at 4pm at National) has kept the string of below-average temperatures going in the Washington metro area. By 4pm, readings were generally in the low 60s with a light southerly breeze.

A non-tropical system with tropical moisture which brought up to 10 inches of rain, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and 2 deaths to the Houston area will work its way northeastward tomorrow, bringing some rain to the Mid Atlantic region.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing chance of rain. Lows tonight under cloudy skies will be close to the long-term average for a change, near 50°. The chance of rain will increase to 50% by morning. Highs tomorrow will be only around 59° with rain becoming steadier and heavier by noon. While the models are keeping the heaviest precipitation west of the mountains, the latest output this afternoon brings an area of up to 1" of rain into at least the western portion of the DC region by tomorrow afternoon.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Climate Corner

The discussion has continued into this afternoon over Andrew's Sunday Undercast, "Climate Change: Denying Denial."

Yesterday's Climate Code on The Weather Channel included more evidence that the climate change issue is NOT political, despite the attempts of some to make it so. It included an interview with the president of the Chicago Climate Exchange, which provides a market for trading greenhouse gas emissions. It also covered the environmental characteristics of the new office tower being built in New York by that noted left-wing radical anti-capitalist organization, Bank of America. If you missed the Sunday broadcast, it's scheduled to be repeated this Saturday.

DCA: Da Chill Arrives

Now

Sunny and cold. Calm winds just before dawn, clear skies, and very low humidity (dewpoints in the mid and upper 20s) helped pushed low temperatures this morning to or below the bottom range of forecasts last night. National was 39°, Dulles was 31°, and some outlying areas were below freezing. (Frederick was 28°.)

Despite a wind shift to the south and bright sunshine, temperatures have rebounded only to the mid 50s this afternoon. The chill will continue tonight with temperatures near or several degrees below last night in most places. Check your county above for the freeze warnings and frost advisories in effect.

CapitalWeather.com chart of NWS data shows hourly temperatures from noon yesterday through 3pm today at National (DCA) and Dulles (IAD); photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Chilly. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, lows tonight will range from the upper 30s downtown to near or slightly below freezing in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny with a warmup to the low 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Early Snow

The wind direction from this cold blast was just right for dumping huge amounts of wet lake-effect snow on Buffalo, NY. Up to two feet of snow was reported to be the 6th highest 24-hour amount in Buffalo history, and it smashed the old one-day record for October of 6". Downed trees created massive power outages and closed roads, including a 100+ mile section of the New York Thruway. The Toronto Star reports that Fort Erie on the Canadian side of the border was also hard hit.

Photo from NY State Thruway Authority

Tropical Topics

Tropical activity? Fuhgeddaboudit!

November Preview

Now

Mostly sunny, breezy. Mainly sunny skies following the passage of a cold front this afternoon have allowed temperatures to get a couple of degrees higher than yesterday; readings are generally 70°-72° at 4pm.

Clouds, enhanced by lake-effect precipitation and upslope motion, have been mostly confined to areas west of the mountains, but in the last hour or so, they have drifted over to a nearly complete overcast here at Afternoon Blog Central in the western half of MoCo. Westerly winds will pump in much cooler air overnight, but the low temperatures will depend on how much those winds die down by morning, and how much of the cloudiness associated with a very strong upper-level low persists.

The coolest temperatures of this spell, as Josh has already indicated, are likely tomorrow night and Saturday night, but the century-plus records of DC proper are not in jeopardy. The record lows for the 13th-15th are: 31° (1906), 32° (1875), and 32° (1874).

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Much cooler. Under partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds, lows tonight will range from the mid 40s in urban areas to some 30s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s to 60°.

For the outlook through the weekend and Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Hurricane Forecaster Profile

The hometown Fort Collins Weekly published a profile yesterday of the 26-year-old Phil Klotzbach's "Robin" to Dr. William Gray's hurricane-season-forecasting "Batman" at Colorado State University.

Look Out for Fall-ing Temperatures And Heating Bills?

Now

Cloudy, cool. Some sunshine at times filtering through a high overcast (generally over 10,000 ft.) has been enough to push temperatures only to the upper 60s in most of the Washington metro area this afternoon. A few spots, notably Culpeper and Leesburg, have been able to reach the 70° mark or more, however.

Showers, some moderate to heavy at times, have been mainly confined to the Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware. Salisbury, which reported a heavy thunderstorm around 4:00, has picked up about ¼" of rain so far today. Some showers ahead of an approaching cold front are still possible through this evening in the DC area.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Fewer clouds, cool. The chance of showers tonight, mainly this evening, is 30%. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60 downtown. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy most of the day with cloudiness increasing late and highs in the upper 60s with lower humidity. Temperatures tomorrow night will be the coldest so far this season, in the 40s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Winter Heating Outlook

The online USN&WR today has an analysis of home heating bills this winter in light of the official winter weather outlook announced yesterday. The good news for natural gas users: Expected warmer than average temperatures and lower gas prices should reduce bills. The bad news: Your utility probably locked in gas at a much higher price than the current market when supplies were expected to be short because of potential hurricane impacts in the Gulf of Mexico.

Pictured: Man with large heating bill, from WaPo