Friday, April 7, 2006

The "M" Word

Update: Thunderstorms with heavy rain and lightning to affect immediate area between 8 and 11pm tonight

We haven't had use for the "m word" around here for a while, but as Camden noted earlier, temperatures and humidities are both up this afternoon in the Washington DC metro area. Temperatures jumped by as much as 6 degrees from 2pm to 3pm, approaching or exceeding 70 in most places, while 81 was posted at several locations on the southern fringe of the region. By 4pm, upper 70s were widespread.

Showers which moved through this morning are now well off to the north and east of the area. The rainfall total was around 0.10". There's still a chance for a few showers to break out through this evening, but a better chance late tonight and tomorrow. At post time, a few heavy showers were sprouting around the northern Shenandoah Valley.

Latest surface weather map from IntelliWeather. Subtract 4 hours from time shown for EDT.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds will increase tonight with lows in the mid to upper 50s and a 70% chance of showers by morning. Temperatures will remain nearly steady or falling slowly in the mid 50s during the day tomorrow with rain likely through mid afternoon.

Political Science

"Muzzle" was the word in a WaPo Federal Page story yesterday titled, "Climate Researchers Feeling Heat From White House". This was a follow-up to earlier stories on the Administration censoring reports, interfering with press access, and otherwise limiting the distribution of climate research results at NASA and NOAA. (If this sort of thing is going on in the physical sciences, it kind of makes one wonder about some of the less scientific statistics coming out of Washington, doesn't it?)

"Majority (veto-proof)" was the word in Maryland. In the face of large majorities in the Maryland Senate and House of Delegates, Gov. Ehrlich signed the Healthy Air Act yesterday. Besides requiring reductions in pollution from coal-fired power plants, the bill joins Maryland with 7 other northeastern states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. Along with the WaPo, the bill was covered in the Baltimore Sun ("Md. enacts law to cut power plant emissions"), New York Times ("Pollution Pact Gets Maryland as 8th Member"), and Associated Press ("Md. Governor Signs Air Pollution Bill").

Wednesday, April 5, 2006

Marching Back

A vigorous batch of upper-air energy, reflected at the surface as a weak low-pressure trough, rattled through the Washington DC metro area this morning. It brought liquid and frozen showers, and even the rumble of thunder, to many locations along with gusty winds. The northwesterly breeze, gusting over 35 mph at times, is reinforcing the cold air over the region; temperatures were barely making it into the low 50s at mid afternoon, about 10° below the long-term average for the date. It's also very dry; dewpoints are near 20° in most places. (Ft. Belvoir is still, undoubtedly bogusly, reporting at least 10° below everyone else.)

Surface weather map at 8am this morning from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow


Under scattered to broken clouds, temperatures tonight will fall to the upper 30s city to the lower 30s in the colder 'burbs. Tomorrow will see mainly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding to a more seasonable range, with highs around 64.

Tropical Topics: Gray Outlook


There are 57 days to the official start of hurricane season, and the land-locked folks at Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project have issued their updated hurricane season forecast. They have reiterated the numbers from the December outlook: 17 named storms with 9 hurricanes, 5 of them severe. Probability of a severe hurricane landfall along the east coast (including east and west coast of Florida) is given as 64%. The forecast also includes their opinion (highly negative) of the relationship between global warming and hurricane intensity.

Omnimedia


If you've been spending more time lately with localized and personalized web sites such as CapitalWeather.com rather than the big Internet names, you're in good company. Yesterday's WaPo reports on a traffic analysis which shows that growth is "is skyrocketing at sites focused on social networking, blogging and local information."

Speaking of our friends at WaPo, if you think they've been getting bashed here for their climate coverage, check out what the professional climate scientists have to say about the WaPo publishing global warming bashing columns on consecutive days by those distinguished climate scientists (and notorious sources of hot air) George Will and Robert Novak. For the antidote to Will and Novak, see yesterday's editorial cartoon, excerpted above, by Tom Toles.

Monday, April 3, 2006

April Fuel? Tornado Watch in Effect Until Midnight

6:40 Update: The line of thunderstorms has now filled in from central Pennsylvania southward across central Maryland and into Virginia between Charlottesville and Richmond. The leading edge is in western Montgomery and central Loudoun County. Check the comments section for some specific reports around the region.

5:30 Update: The line of intense storms has now built southward across western Maryland and the West Virginia panhandle. Some potentially severe storms could reach the area, especially the northern suburbs, in the next couple of hours. Stay tuned to the comments section for further updates.

Showers associated with a warm front extending southeastward from a low pressure area over the Great Lakes briefly passed through the Washington DC metro area last night and this morning. However, rainfall was extremely light, just 0.01" in each of the two precipitation episodes. It was only enough to moisten the pavement and raise the dewpoint from bone-dry to more normal levels. Although radar echoes were more impressive to the southeast, reported amounts were still very light, with Norfolk, for example, receiving only 0.10".

Surface weather map at 1pm today from IntelliWeather. Click on the image to animate.

Another line of showers ahead of the cold front moving through the Ohio Valley was in the mountains of West Virginia at mid afternoon. A narrow portion of the line east of Pittsburgh around 4pm was potentially severe, but south of the Mason-Dixon line, it was looking somewhat ragged. With some fuel from the abundant sunshine in the area, that may be enough to set off some much needed showers and thunderstorms this evening. Temperatures were at or above 70 in most locations by 4pm.

Tonight and Tomorrow

There is a 50% chance of showers and possibly thundershowers late this afternoon or this evening. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, windy, and much cooler with highs only in the mid 50s.

Art and Science

Weather forecasting is often as much of an art as a science, and the current (March) issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society features a painting based on an infrared image of hurricane Katrina. The art is the work of Susan Voss, a PhD entomologist at Emory University and the mother of AccuWeather and CNBC meteorologist Katrina Voss. Several of her works are available for purchase at modest prices on eBay, and 20% of the proceeds are donated to animal disaster victims.

Painting "0245Z-050829" (11" x 14" acrylic on canvas) by Susan Voss

Friday, March 31, 2006

Going Out Like a Lamb

Strong southerly flow ahead of a strong low pressure area over the western Great Lakes brought balmy temperatures to the entire East Coast this afternoon. Readings in the 60s and even the 70s reached well into northern New England. Here in the Washington DC metro area, the month is ending on an up note with widespread upper 70s.

Showers out ahead of the cold front extending southward from the low were just reaching the outskirts of Pittsburgh and the northern West Virginia panhandle around 4pm. By 5pm, a first wave of showers had ended at Pittsburgh with less than 0.10" of rainfall; Morgantown WV reported a trace. A few of these showers may make it over the mountains into the metro area overnight, but the focus of upper-level energy will remain near or to the north of the Great Lakes.


Tonight and Tomorrow


Clouds will increase this evening with a 40% chance of showers in the late evening or early morning and lows near 56. Tomorrow will see a chance of showers in the morning and decreasing clouds in the afternoon, highs near 70.

"Parched March"

Today's WaPo has an article "After a Parched March, Water Worries Percolate" discussing the developing drought situation in the area. One item not mentioned is that a scan of the records indicates that if the current total holds through midnight, this month would join only 3 other months in 135 years of Washington records with less than 0.10" of precipitation. The others were April 1985 (0.03"), October 2000 (0.02") and October 1963 (trace).

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Today's Weather Brought to You by the Letter D

It's Definitely, Delightfully spring in the Washington DC metro area this afternoon, but the Drought continues into a 6th week. Southerly flow from a large high pressure area sliding off the Atlantic coast brought spring conditions as far north as southern Canada. In Farmington, Maine, a sure sign of the season is the return of the Hot Dog man to the side of routes 2 and 4.

By mid afternoon, temperatures in the metro area were in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A storm system organizing in the Northern Plains will move northeastward to the Great Lakes tomorrow, but the bulk of the precipitation with it is likely to remain to the northwest and south of the DC region. If you missed Josh's earlier comment, check out the "Dome of Dryness" over the area through Sunday being predicted by one of this morning's models. A similar pattern, although not quite so extreme, is shown by the latest run this afternoon.

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy through tomorrow afternoon with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the mid 70s. Clouds will increase later in the day tomorrow with only a slight chance of showers before midnight to close out the probable record-breaking month.

Glen or Glenda?

The tropical season continues in full swing Down Under. Tropical Cyclone Glenda is forecast to weaken from a category 2 to 1 as it continues inland along the sparsely-populated northwest coast of Australia. It made landfall as a Category 4.

The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project 2006 season update is scheduled to be released on Tuesday.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Who'll Start the Rain?

The drought continues in the Washington DC metro area this afternoon. Scattered showers, a few with moderate rain, were mostly confined to the mountains of West Virginia at mid afternoon. A few very widely scattered showers had made their way along and east of I-81, but they were all south of I-66. They were heading to the northeast, but the easternmost ones seemed to be drying out as they got nearer to I-95. Charlottesville reported light rain at 3pm which lasted less than 20 minutes, and the amount was a trace. Sunshine through a broken high overcast was enough to push temperatures into the low 60s at most metro area locations.

The showers, which are associated with a weakening low pressure area pushing eastward from the Ohio Valley, may still manage to reach the metro area this evening, but accumulation amounts are likely to be meager at best.

Regional radar image shortly after 4pm today from weather.com

Tonight and Tomorrow


For tonight, mostly cloudy skies early will give way to gradual clearing by morning with lows around 42. There is a 30% chance of measurable rain. Tomorrow will see more sunshine than today and highs around 62.

Drought Marches On


Unless a downpour parks itself directly over the official rain bucket tonight, we are well on our way to breaking the record for driest March by a margin of over ½". This raises the interesting question of the connection between temperature and precipitation in March. Is a dry March warm because it has more sunshine, or is it dry because there is more cold, dry northwesterly flow?

The chart to the right shows a plot of the average monthly temperature vs. total precipitation for the Washington DC period of record starting in 1871. There is a lot of scatter in the data, so the relationship is fairly weak, but the regression line shows that, on average, March tends to be drier with increasing temperature. In fact, the second-driest March so far (0.64" in 1945) was also tied for the warmest at 55.5°. The driest, 0.57" in 1910, was also fairly warm with an average of 51.2°. What's unusual about this month is that the average temperature has been so, well, average. The monthly mean so far of 46.5 is less than a degree below the long-term average.

CapitalClimate chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Monday, March 27, 2006

Marching Into Spring

On Sunday, Jason declared winter over, and I can now confirm that it's official. I've seen my first dandelions of the year, and fortunately they're in my NEIGHBOR's yard. (Thank you, Greenturf!) Under brilliantly blue skies, temperatures this afternoon in the Washington DC metro area are pushing close to the average high for late March. Most reporting locations were sunny and in the upper 50s by mid afternoon.

As the nearly complete lack of precipitation approaches the end of its 5th week (0.25" fell on Feb. 22), there is a chance of showers late tomorrow from a storm system moving eastward out of the Missouri Valley. The chances look better from the next system on Saturday, however.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be near 40 in the city, down to the mid 30s in the colder 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s and a 40% chance of showers in the late afternoon or evening.

Media Climate

Confirming Dan's assertion that the media are starting to "get it" about the story of climate change, this week's Time Magazine has a cover package of articles on global warming. The main article refers to the Science Magazine glacial melting paper we cited here last Thursday. I still haven't seen any reference to it, however, in the Local Paper of Record of the Capital of the Free World. Whassup, WaPo? You had plenty of space for an A-section full-page color ad from Chevron-Texaco today.

Time online also has a link to an ABC News special report on the subject.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.