Deja Vu

5:00 update: We have Tropical Depression 19. The area near the Cape Verdes has developed and has the potential to become Stan within 24 hours.

4:30 update
How cold was it? The Official Low last night was 50 (10.0 C). (Hm, I wonder why those numbers sound familiar. Check out the CarTalk Puzzler reference in Monday's post.) The Usually Colder Place was 40 (4.4 C). In case there was any suspense, the 24-hr. precipitation did come in at 0.01", so the record for driest September ever in Washington will be official at midnight. This afternoon, temperatures have rebounded; they are at or very near 70 in all reporting locations. If you want to see rain on a radar, you'll have to go at least as far as the southern Georgia/South Carolina coast.

Tonight and Tomorrow

For tonight, clear skies and calm winds will lead to some more chilly temperatures, but a few notches higher than last night: 53 city to 43 exurbs. Tomorrow: deja vu all over again. (And somebody said in the comments that summer was the boring season!)

Tropical Beat

The tropics continue their siesta. The Special Tropical Disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean was looking better organized today, but not enough to send in the planes. A flight is scheduled tentatively for late tonight or tomorrow.

A low pressure area almost 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is also perking up and conditions are favorable for tropical depression development "later today or on Saturday", according to the NHC.

Policy Matters

Wonkette has some comments on Michael Crichton's "Jurassic Perk" (or should the initial consonants have been reversed?)

Capitol Climate: CO2

Congress is back in town (hold on to your wallet!), so the American Meteorological Society's Environmental Science Seminar Series resumes on Capitol Hill next Wednesday.

• Subject: "Changes in Ocean Acidity Resulting from the Buildup of CO2: Implications for the Present and the Future"
  
• Time: Wednesday, October 5, 2005, noon - 2pm
  
• Location: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room G-50
  
• Moderator: Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Policy Fellow, American Meteorological Society
  
• Speaker: Dr. Richard A. Feely, Supervisory Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
  
• Speaker: Dr. Kenneth Caldeira, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford University, CA

The questions to be addressed are:

What are the links between ocean acidity, ocean temperature and elevated atmospheric CO2? What are the implications of increasing ocean acidity in the upper ocean to ecosystems and to society? Is there historical evidence of increased ocean acidity associated with warmer temperatures and higher levels of oceanic and atmospheric CO2? If so, what were the consequences? Are there options for keeping ocean acidity in check? Is the increase in ocean acidity independent of any climate warming resulting from the buildup of CO2?

The next seminar is tentatively scheduled for October 25 on the subject, "Hurricanes: Are They Changing and Are We Adequately Prepared for the Future?"

Record Breaking

The cold front we talked about yesterday raced through the Washington metro area around noon, bringing some very light showers (National and BWI 0.01", Dulles a trace). Unless something as unusual as an ice meteorite landing directly on the rain gauge happens before midnight tomorrow, the official total of 0.11" will become the new low rainfall amount for September in Washington. (The April record is 0.03", and October has had both a trace and 0.02".) The bright sun after the rapid clearing has pushed the temperature back up to 75 at mid afternoon.

Tonight and Tomorrow

The main issue for the next 24 hours is how many blankets you will need tonight. The model temperature forecasts were not all up to date at press time, but the current ones ranged from 49 to 50 for National, so I will go for 49. (The record of 39 has stood since 1888.) Dulles and the other usual colder suspects could easily be 10 degrees colder. (Dulles has been reporting only for about 45 years, but the record there was 35 in 1993.) Tomorrow's high should be around 70.

Tropical Beat: Not Yet Depressed

After a reconnaissance flight checked out the disturbance in the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center put out a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement saying that the area was still disorganized and not yet a tropical depression. Conditions are still favorable, however, and another flight is at least tentatively scheduled for tomorrow.

Policy Matters: Science or Entertainment?

While the Katrina hearings continued on Capitol Hill yesterday, the Senate Environment and Public Works committee was holding a hearing in which, probably for the first time, a science fiction writer was invited to testify on science policy. Michael Crichton, author of "State of Fear", and an M.D. by training, was asked for his opinion on global warming. For a review of the hearing by actual scientists (now there's a novel idea), look at the latest posting on the RealClimate blog. RealClimate has a link to the remarks by the ranking committee member, Sen. Jeffords of Vermont, in which he asks, "Mr. Chairman, given the profound human suffering and ecological damage along the Gulf Coast, why are we having a hearing that features a fiction writer as our key witness?" The hearings were also covered by the book sections of the U.K. Guardian ("Novel take on global warming") and the New York Times ("Michael Crichton, Novelist, Becomes Senate Witness")

One Fine Day II: Records in Jeopardy

A bright September sun and southerly breezes are helping temperatures rebound nicely to near 80 from this morning's chilly lows (55 at National, 47 at Dulles). For an explanation of why I was too conservative by 5 degrees at National and 3 degrees at Dulles, and to see who did better, check out the comments from yesterday's post.

What would normally be a typical early-fall cold front has history-making potential tomorrow, since we are approaching the end of September with official total rainfall of 0.10", vs. the all-time low of 0.14" in 1884. (Memo to Topper: I went scurrying back to the database when you said 1934 on the 11pm report last night, but that was the year of the WETTEST September, 17.45". Since we don't make the big bucks here at Blog Central, we do our own fact-checking.)

Tonight and Tomorrow

I'm not going out on much of a limb by saying that tonight's lows will NOT be as cool as last night's, mainly in the low 60s. Tomorrow is trickier, since it depends on the timing of the passage of a new cold front, one that is strong enough to produce some frost in the upper Great Lakes in the early morning hours. The model guidance indicates frontal passage ("fropa") in the early to mid afternoon, so depending on the amount of cloudiness and whether or not there is some rain associated, the high might not make it beyond the mid 70s. The latest model run this afternoon keeps the heaviest precipitation north of the Mason-Dixon line (over half an inch in western Pennsylvania), but around 0.1" is indicated for the DC area. This amount is not enough to save any lawns, but it would spoil the chance of breaking the 121-year record.

Tropical Beat: Atlantic Still Quiet

Tropical junkies are having withdrawal pains from another day without an advisory. The "special feature", a tropical wave/low pressure area now in the western Caribbean is looking more ragged today, and the scheduled reconnaissance flight was canceled. The National Hurricane Center still sees some potential for this to become Tropically Depressed, so the flight was rescheduled for tomorrow morning. There are now only 2 days left to break the 1933 record for earliest 18th storm.

Broadcast News: Entertainment or Business, You Be the Judge

You may recall about a month ago (on Katrina's birthday, as it happens), we linked to a Harper's Magazine online article which quoted from the transcript of a presentation by a Weather Channel executive on dress and appearance of On-Camera Meteorologists (OCMs). This issue is the subject of an age-discrimination lawsuit by former TWC meteorologist Marny Stanier. ABC News has posted an Associated Press article which describes the latest developments in the case. On Monday, the judge raised the question of whether TWC is entertainment or a business. If it's entertainment, then he said they would be able to discriminate in the same way a movie studio, for example, can hire only 19-year-old actresses. TWC's lawyer claimed that firing Stanier was "simply a way to free up money for future investment." From a view of the faces who have been hired in the last few years, it seems that the future investment has been in younger talent.

"One Fine Day"

Behind a cold front which passed through the Washington DC metro area last night, high pressure dominates the entire country east of the Rockies, except for the Gulf Coast and Florida. Bright, sunny skies have pushed temperatures near or a little above 80 by mid afternoon. Humidity is comfortable with dewpoints mainly in the mid 40s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 downtown, in the 50s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny and dry with high temperatures in the upper 70s.

Tropical Beat: Go S!

Once again, no tropical advisories are being issued today. However, there is an area of low pressure in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Haiti, which shows "the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next 36 hours", according to the National Hurricane Center. Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled for tomorrow.

We're a little partial to the letter "S" here at Afternoon Blog Central, so we should be excused if we're rooting for this one to develop. If it becomes "Stan", it will be the first time in history that an 18th "named" Atlantic storm has formed before October. The 18th storm in 1933 occurred on October 1, and the only storm ever to have an actual "S" name was Sebastien in 1995.

The Palm Beach Post has an extensive Storm 2005 multimedia collection (flash/audio/video), including recaps of Rita, Katrina, and friends, as well as the Greatest Hits of 2004. Many of the features need more bandwidth than Verizon provides with its tin-can-and-string service here within shouting distance of I-270, the Technology Highway, but they look interesting.

For some spectacular super high-res (250 m) images of Rita, as well as some other items from the last 4 years, point your high-bandwidth connection to the MODIS Image Gallery at the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center.

Hurricane Preparedness

The American Meteorological Society and the Weather Channel sponsored a workshop over 5 years ago to discuss the U.S. hurricane preparedness system. One of the principal findings was that

Overall, the nation pays insufficient attention to hurricane preparedness and response. In particular, there is a lack of attention, dialogue, and planning among the affected parties and insufficient investments to develop and implement response strategies.

Well, Probably Not

Hopes of reducing the drought in the Washington metro area have faded today as the remnants of Rita moved up the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front and stayed mainly north and west of the region. A few places, such as Hagerstown, Frederick, and Leesburg, reported some light rain or drizzle this afternoon, but no measurable accumulation. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies while a southerly to southwesterly breeze gusted as high as 25 mph.

There will be some widely scattered showers moving through the area into this evening, but amounts will be light. Lows will be in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be sunny and dry, highs in the upper 70s.

Tropical Beat

This is one of the few times during this hectic hurricane season that there has been no organized tropical activity in the Atlantic. The last advisory on the remnants of Rita was issued at 5am this morning. Although the storm fortunately did not stall out, some rainfall amounts were very high. A place called Bunkie in Louisiana reported 16 inches. Also in double digits were Laplace, LA at 12.45" and Center, TX at 10.48". New Orleans had over 6".

The NHC is watching a "strong tropical wave" over the central Caribbean for possible future development. There is also a low pressure area about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Historical Perspective/Numerology

Now that Rita has made landfall as a Category 3, this is the first time in 155 years of history that as many as 3 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. at Category 3 or higher in each of 2 consecutive years. Last year, there were Charley (4), Ivan (3), and Jeanne (3). This year, we have had Dennis (3), Katrina (4), and Rita (3). The only other previous years with 2 3s and a 4 were 1954 (Carol, Edna, and Hazel) and 1893. There has never been a year with 4 major U.S. landfalls. Even the record-setting year of '33 had, appropriately, 3 3s.

Federal Kudos

The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center get some well-deserved praise for their hurricane forecasting in today's WaPo Federal Diary. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California is quoted saying that they produced

"probably . . . the best performance of any of the federal agencies in all of this."

Broadcast News

Fans of NPR's Car Talk were pleased Saturday to hear that their weekly Puzzler featured a Fahrenheit/Celsius question. I'm not going to provide a link, because I already solved it in my head while putting a pizza in the oven. (If you do look it up and enter, please mention CapitalWeather.com.)

I think I heard Pann and Berk, the WeatherTalk guys, say they were going to be on MPT's Direct Connection tonight, but the station's web site is showing a cooking topic. In any case, the program is on at 7:30, channel 22 locally.

"I still see her dark eye[s] glowin'"

It may be a little hard to believe just looking out the window, but it's the warmest day this month in the Washington metro area. The official temperature hit 90 by 2pm, and it was 92 an hour later. Dewpoints are in the sticky 60s. Radar at mid afternoon showed some scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly in the region east of Elkins, West Virginia, and north of Charlottesville. A line has now formed east of I-81 and south of I-66 which will probably stay south of the metro area.

Outlook

There is still a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms through this evening. Temperatures will cool and humidities will drop tonight as a cold front near the Mason-Dixon line early this afternoon makes its way through the area. Lows will be in the mid 60s. An easterly flow behind the front will keep skies mostly cloudy tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Tropical Beat

Hurricane Rita has been gradually weakening, but it is still a dangerous Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph as of 5pm. The center of the storm is located about 155 miles east-southeast of Galveston, and it's moving northwest at 12 mph. With a turn a little to the north, it will make landfall early tomorrow morning somewhere between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border, closer to Port Arthur than Galveston. The exact position of landfall is important for the location of maximum storm surge, but the area of hurricane force winds extends up to 85 miles from the center, and the area of tropical storm winds extends up to 205 miles from the center.

Minimal Tropical Storm Philippe is now drifting west to threaten Bermuda with tropical storm winds before being absorbed by another low pressure area.

Political Science: Disaster Planning or Planning Disaster?

The WaPo's editorial "Anticipating Rita" may be just a wee bit premature. With Houston hopefully spared the worst impacts of what could have been a more apocalyptic scenario, there could still be some second-guessing on the storm preparations. An "evacuation" which proceeds at half the speed (50 miles in 12 hours) of a storm traveling 9 mph might not be the most efficient that the greatest technological society the world has ever known is capable of. This is especially true if the evacuation process ends up killing more people than the storm itself. Evacuate Galveston in this situation? Absolutely. Evacuate most of metro Houston as well? Probably not. Granted, there are large areas of Harris County which are prone to flood and should be evacuated, but if 2 million people are living in such conditions, it's time to rethink some zoning rules. There are undoubtedly many people who could shelter in place if they know who they are and where to go. Do you know what your altitude is? Many parts of DC are quite low; the elevation of National Airport is only 10 feet. Here in Montgomery County not too far from the Beltway, it's more like 300 feet. (The only reason I know this is because I needed to set the altitude for my barometer.) It's time to ask government officials at all levels some serious questions about what they have done with the hundreds of billions of dollars they have spent in the past 4 years preparing to Defend the Motherland.

"I still hear your sea winds blowin'"

As Josh noted in the comments, we've got the muggies to go along with the warm temperatures in the Washington metro area this afternoon. Although the temperatures in the upper 80s are well above the long-term average for the date of 77, the record of 98 set in 1895 is in no jeopardy. (That must have been quite a heat wave in 1895: All of the temperature records for the 5 days from the 19th to the 23rd of September were set that year. The records ranged from 94 through 98.) Unfortunately, there is no rain in sight to break our nearly month-long drought.

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows near 70 in the city, upper 60s in the suburbs. Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Midwest. There is a 40% chance of showers.

Tropical Beat

After reaching maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and an estimated minimum pressure of 897 mb, Rita has weakened to Category 4 at "only" 145 mph. The Weather Channel has noted that this is only the third time that there have been 2 category 5 storms in the same year. The other 2 years were 1960 and 1961. If Rita makes landfall as a Category 4, it will be only the second time that 2 storms have made landfall in the U.S. at Category 4 or higher in the same year. (The other year was 1915.)

At 5pm, Rita was located about 405 miles southeast of Galveston, headed west-northwest at 9 mph. The good news on the forecast track is that it has shifted to the east of the immediate Houston/Galveston area, so the highly-populated (and low-lying) area could be spared the worst impact. The bad news is that it puts the worst effects into an area with a high concentration of offshore oil platforms and an onshore area with about 25% of the entire country's refinery capacity. The 5pm update also raised tropical storm warnings as far east as (shudder) New Orleans.

Rita Resources

If you have connections to the Houston area, or just want to follow what is happening there, the Houston Chronicle has special coverage online. As of mid afternoon, cable news was showing 5 or 6 lanes of northbound I-45, plus several feeder lanes, completely gridlocked, while police were attempting to clear the southbound lanes for reversal. Wolf Blitzer was haranguing the police chief over "why it took so long."

The Chronicle science reporter has a SciGuy blog on the storm, although the link was broken when I tried it earlier. Here are some interesting storm discussion sites I gleaned from the SciGuy:

• Millennium Weather
• Mr. Foot (from Dundalk High School)
• Crown Weather

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is running an experimental super-high-resolution model (4 km) called the ARW, but like most research, it's a bit later than real-time. The output currently displayed is from last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) data.