Currently
It's the 31st, and the Washington DC metro area is on the verge of just missing a tie with 2003 for the coolest May since 1967. Temperatures in mid afternoon are in the upper 70s throughout the area, just below the long-term average high of 80 for the date. Frederick was the warm spot at 4pm with 81 degrees. At the beach, an easterly breeze is keeping Ocean City at 70 under sunny skies. Regional radar is totally clear in all directions. As a high pressure area centered over the Great Lakes spreads over the entire East Coast except for Florida, the nearest precipitation extends from near Atlanta to southern South Carolina.
Outlook
After maxing out around 80, temperatures tonight will drop to lows in the upper 50s. Partly cloudy skies tomorrow will be accompanied by highs again from the upper 70s to 80.
Tropical Update
Tomorrow is the official start of the hurricane season. Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University today updated his hurricane season forecast. He is forecasting a "well above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005" and "an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall." The new forecast increases the number of named storms (15), hurricanes (8), and intense hurricanes (4) from the earlier prediction made on April 1. The increase in activity is due to increased warming of the Atlantic Ocean and decreased likelihood of an El Nino developing in the summer and fall. The forecast probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3-5) landfall on the U.S. East Coast is 59%, vs. an average for the last century of 31%. The Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage, based on Dr. Gray's forecast, shows that the probability of landfall by 1 or more named storms in the mid-Atlantic region (northern Outer Banks through New Jersey) is 14.6%, vs. a long-term average of 8.6%. The next forecast update will be issued on Aug. 5. The update will include monthly predictions for August, September, and October.
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Thursday, April 21, 2005
And now for something completely different . . .
Currently
Spring is back after a brief taste of summer. A cold front passed through the Washington metro area around 5am this morning, and temperatures continued to drop through the morning hours, generally to the low or mid 60's around noon. Dulles was only 61 at noon, over 20 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. An area of showers which moved in from central Maryland in late morning has hung around most of the area, except for the southeast portion. The Nats played the first several innings this afternoon in a light rain. Under persistent cloudiness and northeasterly winds, temperatures will have trouble making it to the historical average high for today's date of 68. Today happens to be the latest date in April which has never reached 90 degrees, although interestingly May 2 has also never exceeded 89.
Outlook
With continuing cloudiness tonight, temperatures will drop to near 50. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 60's at best. As Josh describes below, the reversal of seasons continues as another front moves in with even colder air over the weekend.
Blog Log
RealClimate, "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists", has a new post on the relationship between ozone depletion and global warming. This is one of the most common areas of misconception in the public view of climate issues. Apparently, people have gotten the idea that the Earth is warming because more solar radiation is coming through the ozone hole. In fact, these are two distinct issues. Complicating the discussion, however, is the fact that there is some connection between them that affects the possible actions to deal with these two separate problems.
Spring is back after a brief taste of summer. A cold front passed through the Washington metro area around 5am this morning, and temperatures continued to drop through the morning hours, generally to the low or mid 60's around noon. Dulles was only 61 at noon, over 20 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. An area of showers which moved in from central Maryland in late morning has hung around most of the area, except for the southeast portion. The Nats played the first several innings this afternoon in a light rain. Under persistent cloudiness and northeasterly winds, temperatures will have trouble making it to the historical average high for today's date of 68. Today happens to be the latest date in April which has never reached 90 degrees, although interestingly May 2 has also never exceeded 89.
Outlook
With continuing cloudiness tonight, temperatures will drop to near 50. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 60's at best. As Josh describes below, the reversal of seasons continues as another front moves in with even colder air over the weekend.
Blog Log
RealClimate, "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists", has a new post on the relationship between ozone depletion and global warming. This is one of the most common areas of misconception in the public view of climate issues. Apparently, people have gotten the idea that the Earth is warming because more solar radiation is coming through the ozone hole. In fact, these are two distinct issues. Complicating the discussion, however, is the fact that there is some connection between them that affects the possible actions to deal with these two separate problems.
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Play Ball!
NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFKWinds will be northeasterly from 10 to 15 mph, diminishing during the game. Temperatures will be about 65 when the gates open, but expect them to drop steadily after sunset at 7:44 from the game-time level of 58 down to the lower 50's by the 7th-inning stretch and into the 40's on the way home. Go Nats!
Currently
Today's weather map shows a weak low pressure area moving away from the North Carolina coast and high pressure dominating virtually the entire country east of the Rockies. The only precipitation showing on national radar in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. is an area of lingering showers in the eastern Carolinas. Under brilliantly sunny skies, temperatures are rising from an official low of 42 through the 50's at mid-day toward highs in the mid 60's. Some of the outlying areas were down into the 30's last night with Frederick at 37, Dulles at 39, Culpeper at 33.
Under clear skies, temperatures should drop to near 40 tonight. Tomorrow should be slightly cooler with highs around 60.
Baseball and the atmosphere
Images (click to enlarge): Magnus force, from American Scientist The May-June issue of American Scientist has an article on "Predicting a Baseball's Path". It explains how the spin of a baseball pitch interacts with the air through the "Magnus force" to affect the ball's motion. A ball moving through air has a turbulent wake behind it. The direction of spin affects the location of the "separation points" where the air flow becomes turbulent. In the case of topspin (movement of the top of the ball is in the direction of the pitch), the upper separation point is deflected upward, so the air in the wake has upward momentum. By the law of conservation of momentum, the ball must move downward. Conversely, a ball with backspin will move upward. By controlling the axis of rotation of the pitch, the pitcher can determine the direction of deflection of the ball.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
Good afternoon, Charlottesville
Currently
Last night's rain showers were widely scattered and mainly confined to the south of the Washington metro area. The official rain bucket collected a minimal 0.01". As a weak low pressure area moves slowly off the Carolina coast, skies have cleared in the area. Temperatures were into the upper 50's by noon and lower 60's at 2pm. Here on the admittedly non-standard CapitalClimate Weather Patio, it's 65. In southern Virginia, where clouds and some light rain prevail, temperatures are only in the upper 40's.
Outlook
Under mainly clear skies, temperatures should be in the low 40's tonight, with highs tomorrow near 60.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFK
Outlook for the Nats' home opener: Light, mainly easterly breeze at game time; temperature 54, falling to about 50 by the 7th inning stretch. No rain!
Founding Father, Monticello Meteorologist
Today is the 262nd anniversary of the birth of Thomas Jefferson. The third President of the United States was a dedicated weather observer, recording the temperature at Monticello every day at dawn and at 4pm. He also recorded wind direction and speed and precipitation. The Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm of January 27-28, 1772, was so-named in recognition of the fact that it was recorded by both future presidents. Jefferson, who had just returned from his honeymoon, reported a snow depth of about 3 feet. According to David Ludlum's "Early American Winters", this was "the greatest snowstorm in the history of the middle and lower Potomac Valley." In 1776, Jefferson began to recruit volunteer weather observers around the state of Virginia. This was the forerunner of today's Cooperative Weather Program. The Thomas Jefferson award is the highest award for volunteer weather observation. No more than 5 of these awards are presented each year for "unusual and outstanding achievements." As President, Jefferson also created the Coast Survey (now the National Geodetic Survey), the country's first civilian scientific agency and the oldest component of what is now NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Current conditions in Charlottesville:
Clear skies, temperature 58.
Last night's rain showers were widely scattered and mainly confined to the south of the Washington metro area. The official rain bucket collected a minimal 0.01". As a weak low pressure area moves slowly off the Carolina coast, skies have cleared in the area. Temperatures were into the upper 50's by noon and lower 60's at 2pm. Here on the admittedly non-standard CapitalClimate Weather Patio, it's 65. In southern Virginia, where clouds and some light rain prevail, temperatures are only in the upper 40's.
Outlook
Under mainly clear skies, temperatures should be in the low 40's tonight, with highs tomorrow near 60.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFKOutlook for the Nats' home opener: Light, mainly easterly breeze at game time; temperature 54, falling to about 50 by the 7th inning stretch. No rain!
Founding Father, Monticello Meteorologist
Today is the 262nd anniversary of the birth of Thomas Jefferson. The third President of the United States was a dedicated weather observer, recording the temperature at Monticello every day at dawn and at 4pm. He also recorded wind direction and speed and precipitation. The Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm of January 27-28, 1772, was so-named in recognition of the fact that it was recorded by both future presidents. Jefferson, who had just returned from his honeymoon, reported a snow depth of about 3 feet. According to David Ludlum's "Early American Winters", this was "the greatest snowstorm in the history of the middle and lower Potomac Valley." In 1776, Jefferson began to recruit volunteer weather observers around the state of Virginia. This was the forerunner of today's Cooperative Weather Program. The Thomas Jefferson award is the highest award for volunteer weather observation. No more than 5 of these awards are presented each year for "unusual and outstanding achievements." As President, Jefferson also created the Coast Survey (now the National Geodetic Survey), the country's first civilian scientific agency and the oldest component of what is now NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Current conditions in Charlottesville:
Clear skies, temperature 58.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Three-bagger
Currently
The Washington metro area enjoyed a three-base hit today, as the picture-perfect spring weather continued for a third day. Despite a northeasterly wind behind a cold front which moved through from the north overnight, a sunny sky pushed temperatures to near 70 or a bit above by mid afternoon. The only cool spots in the region were those with cold-water influences: Ocean City was at 50, and Annapolis was 59 at 3pm. The regional radar is clear. In fact, the only precipitation in the eastern half of the country is in the Gulf States ahead of the low pressure area which brought nearly 2 feet of snow to eastern Colorado and closed 200 miles of I-70 over the weekend.
Outlook
The cooler air which is now moving in over us will be reinforced by the strong "meridional flow" pattern which we are in. As the pattern continues through the week, we can expect cool and damp conditions, as described by Jason below. Expect lows tonight in the low to mid 40's and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 50's with increasing cloudiness.
Blog log: Vote early and often!
The WeatherBug Storm Chase 2005 blog has narrowed down the field to 3 contestants to go storm chasing with them. Read about the 3 candidates, and then cast a vote for your favorite.
Broadcast news
The radio Weather Talk guys Justin Berk and Tony Pann have launched a web site in connection with their show. The first show was yesterday afternoon. If you listened, tell us your impressions of the show in the comments section (link below). I suspect that for at least some parts of the DC area, reception for the Baltimore station will be weak at best. In west-central Montgomery County, I could tune it in only on the upstairs clock radio at maximum volume.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFK
See Jason's post below for a preview of the conditions for the Nats' home opener Thursday night, and watch this space for updates during the week. The blogger gods willing, we'll have a last-minute update Thursday afternoon, so you'll know what to wear and whether to bring your brolly. (Hopefully, umbrellas won't be banned if they're necessary.) One thing we can be confident of at least: With a 7:05 starting time, you won't need sunscreen.
The Washington metro area enjoyed a three-base hit today, as the picture-perfect spring weather continued for a third day. Despite a northeasterly wind behind a cold front which moved through from the north overnight, a sunny sky pushed temperatures to near 70 or a bit above by mid afternoon. The only cool spots in the region were those with cold-water influences: Ocean City was at 50, and Annapolis was 59 at 3pm. The regional radar is clear. In fact, the only precipitation in the eastern half of the country is in the Gulf States ahead of the low pressure area which brought nearly 2 feet of snow to eastern Colorado and closed 200 miles of I-70 over the weekend.
Outlook
The cooler air which is now moving in over us will be reinforced by the strong "meridional flow" pattern which we are in. As the pattern continues through the week, we can expect cool and damp conditions, as described by Jason below. Expect lows tonight in the low to mid 40's and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 50's with increasing cloudiness.
Blog log: Vote early and often!
The WeatherBug Storm Chase 2005 blog has narrowed down the field to 3 contestants to go storm chasing with them. Read about the 3 candidates, and then cast a vote for your favorite.
Broadcast news
The radio Weather Talk guys Justin Berk and Tony Pann have launched a web site in connection with their show. The first show was yesterday afternoon. If you listened, tell us your impressions of the show in the comments section (link below). I suspect that for at least some parts of the DC area, reception for the Baltimore station will be weak at best. In west-central Montgomery County, I could tune it in only on the upstairs clock radio at maximum volume.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFKSee Jason's post below for a preview of the conditions for the Nats' home opener Thursday night, and watch this space for updates during the week. The blogger gods willing, we'll have a last-minute update Thursday afternoon, so you'll know what to wear and whether to bring your brolly. (Hopefully, umbrellas won't be banned if they're necessary.) One thing we can be confident of at least: With a 7:05 starting time, you won't need sunscreen.
Wednesday, April 6, 2005
How warm is it?
Currently
If you're still sitting in the office looking out the window, it's not because we didn't warn you. Forecasts of highs near 80 turned out to be a wee bit conservative, as temperatures rose 30 degrees by mid afternoon from an early morning low of 52. Temperatures in the Washington DC metro area were all above 80 at 3pm, except for Quantico, which stubbornly reported 69. Either the south wind at 16 mph was producing a mean river effect, or the site may need a calibration. A southeast breeze off the Bay was chilling Annapolis to 59. The warm spot was Leesburg VA at 88. Roughly due east of there in Montgomery County, I'm seeing a temperature of 88 as well. With the storm windows and doors still in place, that's about a 20 degree excess above the indoor temperature. Shortly before 4 pm, both Leesburg and Frederick MD reached the magic 32 Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). Let us know in the comments how warm it is where you are. (And ignore the comment count; it's being a little flaky.) Last year, the temperature was above 70 only once in the first half of April, reaching 80 for the first time on the 17th.
Outlook
A storm system now slowly working its way through the Gulf States will bring an increasing threat of showers by late tomorrow through the middle of the day Friday. After lows tonight about 60, highs tomorrow should be in the low 70's. Further cooling is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 60's.
Mass Market Media Meteorologist Moves
The American Meteorological Society announced on Monday that Jack Williams will be joining the AMS staff as the public outreach coordinator. Williams has been the weather editor of USA Today for over 20 years since it first began publication. He has received the AMS Louis J. Battan Author's Award twice: for the "USA Today Weather Book" in 1994 and with co-author Dr. Bob Sheets in 2004 for "Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth". His first task at the AMS will be to develop a new book on weather and climate aimed at promoting scientific literacy. The Weather Grill gang sends best wishes to Jack on his new assignment; don't forget to bring your snow shovel to Boston.
If you're still sitting in the office looking out the window, it's not because we didn't warn you. Forecasts of highs near 80 turned out to be a wee bit conservative, as temperatures rose 30 degrees by mid afternoon from an early morning low of 52. Temperatures in the Washington DC metro area were all above 80 at 3pm, except for Quantico, which stubbornly reported 69. Either the south wind at 16 mph was producing a mean river effect, or the site may need a calibration. A southeast breeze off the Bay was chilling Annapolis to 59. The warm spot was Leesburg VA at 88. Roughly due east of there in Montgomery County, I'm seeing a temperature of 88 as well. With the storm windows and doors still in place, that's about a 20 degree excess above the indoor temperature. Shortly before 4 pm, both Leesburg and Frederick MD reached the magic 32 Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). Let us know in the comments how warm it is where you are. (And ignore the comment count; it's being a little flaky.) Last year, the temperature was above 70 only once in the first half of April, reaching 80 for the first time on the 17th.
Outlook
A storm system now slowly working its way through the Gulf States will bring an increasing threat of showers by late tomorrow through the middle of the day Friday. After lows tonight about 60, highs tomorrow should be in the low 70's. Further cooling is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 60's.
Mass Market Media Meteorologist Moves
The American Meteorological Society announced on Monday that Jack Williams will be joining the AMS staff as the public outreach coordinator. Williams has been the weather editor of USA Today for over 20 years since it first began publication. He has received the AMS Louis J. Battan Author's Award twice: for the "USA Today Weather Book" in 1994 and with co-author Dr. Bob Sheets in 2004 for "Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth". His first task at the AMS will be to develop a new book on weather and climate aimed at promoting scientific literacy. The Weather Grill gang sends best wishes to Jack on his new assignment; don't forget to bring your snow shovel to Boston.
Monday, April 4, 2005
Back to our regularly scheduled season
Currently
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
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