Currently
If you're still sitting in the office looking out the window, it's not because we didn't warn you. Forecasts of highs near 80 turned out to be a wee bit conservative, as temperatures rose 30 degrees by mid afternoon from an early morning low of 52. Temperatures in the Washington DC metro area were all above 80 at 3pm, except for Quantico, which stubbornly reported 69. Either the south wind at 16 mph was producing a mean river effect, or the site may need a calibration. A southeast breeze off the Bay was chilling Annapolis to 59. The warm spot was Leesburg VA at 88. Roughly due east of there in Montgomery County, I'm seeing a temperature of 88 as well. With the storm windows and doors still in place, that's about a 20 degree excess above the indoor temperature. Shortly before 4 pm, both Leesburg and Frederick MD reached the magic 32 Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). Let us know in the comments how warm it is where you are. (And ignore the comment count; it's being a little flaky.) Last year, the temperature was above 70 only once in the first half of April, reaching 80 for the first time on the 17th.
Outlook
A storm system now slowly working its way through the Gulf States will bring an increasing threat of showers by late tomorrow through the middle of the day Friday. After lows tonight about 60, highs tomorrow should be in the low 70's. Further cooling is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 60's.
Mass Market Media Meteorologist Moves
The American Meteorological Society announced on Monday that Jack Williams will be joining the AMS staff as the public outreach coordinator. Williams has been the weather editor of USA Today for over 20 years since it first began publication. He has received the AMS Louis J. Battan Author's Award twice: for the "USA Today Weather Book" in 1994 and with co-author Dr. Bob Sheets in 2004 for "Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth". His first task at the AMS will be to develop a new book on weather and climate aimed at promoting scientific literacy. The Weather Grill gang sends best wishes to Jack on his new assignment; don't forget to bring your snow shovel to Boston.
Wednesday, April 6, 2005
Monday, April 4, 2005
Back to our regularly scheduled season
Currently
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
A Miss, but a Win for the Models
Currently
The recent trend of cold, but dry, weather continues in the Washington DC area as the models correctly predicted that precipitation would stay south of the region. The sun gradually strengthened this morning through a high overcast which was caused by a weak low pressure area bringing mostly rain to the southeastern states. In far southwestern Virginia, precipitation was in the form of snow. At mid-morning, radar showed precipitation advancing as far as just north of Richmond and just south of Charlottesville, but none of it was reported reaching the ground. These areas were becoming more scattered by noon. A few stations in West Virginia had light snow. Light rain reached as far north as the Norfolk area in southeastern Virginia.
Temperatures should warm up to near 50 this afternoon in most locations. It's now 49 here in Montgomery County.Tonight should see temperatures below freezing for the 12th time so far this month, with lows about 30. Tomorrow will be sunny with temperatures a few degrees warmer, into the low 50's, nearly seasonable for this time of year.
March so far
March is normally one of the wettest months in Washington, with an average of 10.1 days, or 33%, having measurable precipitation. For the first half of this month, we have seen only 2 such days. Last year on the 16th, we were beginning a 6-day stretch of rain and drizzle. As for the temperature, there has been only one day so far which averaged above normal. The overall average of 5.3 degrees below the long-term normal, if it continues, would make this the coldest March in over 20 years, just 0.1 degree warmer than in 1984.
In the news
The industrial grade 80,000-ton ice sculpture near Fairbanks we mentioned last week has collapsed from above-normal temperatures, according to a report in the Anchorage Daily News.
On a somewhat larger scale, there were reports this week that the snow cap of Mt. Kilimanjaro has melted for the first time in 11,000 years.
The recent trend of cold, but dry, weather continues in the Washington DC area as the models correctly predicted that precipitation would stay south of the region. The sun gradually strengthened this morning through a high overcast which was caused by a weak low pressure area bringing mostly rain to the southeastern states. In far southwestern Virginia, precipitation was in the form of snow. At mid-morning, radar showed precipitation advancing as far as just north of Richmond and just south of Charlottesville, but none of it was reported reaching the ground. These areas were becoming more scattered by noon. A few stations in West Virginia had light snow. Light rain reached as far north as the Norfolk area in southeastern Virginia.
Temperatures should warm up to near 50 this afternoon in most locations. It's now 49 here in Montgomery County.Tonight should see temperatures below freezing for the 12th time so far this month, with lows about 30. Tomorrow will be sunny with temperatures a few degrees warmer, into the low 50's, nearly seasonable for this time of year.
March so far
March is normally one of the wettest months in Washington, with an average of 10.1 days, or 33%, having measurable precipitation. For the first half of this month, we have seen only 2 such days. Last year on the 16th, we were beginning a 6-day stretch of rain and drizzle. As for the temperature, there has been only one day so far which averaged above normal. The overall average of 5.3 degrees below the long-term normal, if it continues, would make this the coldest March in over 20 years, just 0.1 degree warmer than in 1984.
In the news
The industrial grade 80,000-ton ice sculpture near Fairbanks we mentioned last week has collapsed from above-normal temperatures, according to a report in the Anchorage Daily News.
On a somewhat larger scale, there were reports this week that the snow cap of Mt. Kilimanjaro has melted for the first time in 11,000 years.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
It's mid-March; do you know where your spring is?
Currently
It's a few degrees warmer today than at the same time yesterday, although the winds are actually stronger, gusting as high as 29 mph around the area at 1pm. Temperatures ranged from 45 to 48, heading for a high around 50 under sunny skies.
Outlook
Clouds will increase by tomorrow morning as a low-pressure area getting organized in the western Gulf of Mexico this morning heads eastward. Yesterday, we told you that precipitation from this storm was likely to remain south of us, and that trend has been confirmed by model runs since then. Both major U.S. models this morning are again keeping the precipitation to the south, although some measurable precipitation does make it as far north as central Virginia. This means we can't totally rule out some light rain or snow in the southern part of the area; the most likely time would be tomorrow morning or early afternoon. After that, the most likely time for precipitation in the area is Saturday or Saturday night; amounts will probably be light.
Through the looking glass
I have rarely looked at Southern Hemisphere weather maps, so I find them a bit disorienting; they're a mirror image of what we're used to. Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, after bouncing around the northern Australian coast, was making its third landfall this morning (early hours of Wednesday Australian time) as a category 4 storm with wind gusts up to 260 km/hr. It had previously strengthened to a category 5 over the Gulf of Timor. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corp.) was reporting that winds of over 280 km/hr were hitting the remote resort of Faraway Bay. The storm had moved north of Darwin, which was nearly destroyed by Cyclone Tracy on Christmas Day, 1974.
It's a few degrees warmer today than at the same time yesterday, although the winds are actually stronger, gusting as high as 29 mph around the area at 1pm. Temperatures ranged from 45 to 48, heading for a high around 50 under sunny skies.
Outlook
Clouds will increase by tomorrow morning as a low-pressure area getting organized in the western Gulf of Mexico this morning heads eastward. Yesterday, we told you that precipitation from this storm was likely to remain south of us, and that trend has been confirmed by model runs since then. Both major U.S. models this morning are again keeping the precipitation to the south, although some measurable precipitation does make it as far north as central Virginia. This means we can't totally rule out some light rain or snow in the southern part of the area; the most likely time would be tomorrow morning or early afternoon. After that, the most likely time for precipitation in the area is Saturday or Saturday night; amounts will probably be light.
Through the looking glass
I have rarely looked at Southern Hemisphere weather maps, so I find them a bit disorienting; they're a mirror image of what we're used to. Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, after bouncing around the northern Australian coast, was making its third landfall this morning (early hours of Wednesday Australian time) as a category 4 storm with wind gusts up to 260 km/hr. It had previously strengthened to a category 5 over the Gulf of Timor. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corp.) was reporting that winds of over 280 km/hr were hitting the remote resort of Faraway Bay. The storm had moved north of Darwin, which was nearly destroyed by Cyclone Tracy on Christmas Day, 1974.
Friday, March 11, 2005
Breaking news: March temperatures today in DC area!
Currently
With no precipitation so far and therefore more sun than expected, temperatures are warming up more than we originally forecast. National was at 53 with a high overcast by 1pm, and it was in the lower 50's in most other places. Further south, it was 57 in Fredericksburg. With continued sun and a southwest wind ahead of a low-pressure area that was moving into western Pennsylvania at mid-morning, we will be close to the normal high for the date of 54, an unusual event this March. Around midnight last night, radar showed scattered areas of snow showers in the mountains of West Virginia and about as far east as Hagerstown in Maryland, but very little was reaching the ground. Hagerstown did report a trace of precipitation overnight. (This must be one of those "Discount Snow Storms" eBay was advertising over to the right last night.) Today, the nearest activity around 1pm is widely scattered rain showers in central Maryland and a bit east of I-81 in northern Virginia. The model forecasts have been consistently over-predicting precipitation for the DC area from this situation, but we still can't rule out the possibility of a shower of flurry later in the day. The most likely time for this would be late this afternoon or early evening.
The weekend
For the weekend, a mixture of clouds and sun with a slight chance of rain or snow showers should continue with colder temperatures, as described by Jason below.
The Weather Channel
I was living in Woodstock, NY in the early 80's when our local community antenna with about 10 channels was upgraded to a "real" cable system. The TV's and VCR's in those days didn't have digital tuners, so you had to manually tune in a channel to a particular button. I remember my excitement when I twisted the tiny knob to find all weather, all the time. Now, I have to agree with Jason that it's a lot less appealing. I hope I don't sound like I have stock in the company since this is my second mention of it here, but the answer to this (besides the Web, of course) is TiVo. (I don't; they have a great product but terrible financial performance.) By leaving the box tuned to that channel, you always have the most recent 30 minutes of content available. You can use fast-forward to get the approximately 5 minutes of useful content out of that in 5 minutes or less, and you can use pause on the radar loop if necessary. I find that this technique works quite well with CNBC also, if you don't care about the conventional wisdom regarding the latest oil price blip.
With no precipitation so far and therefore more sun than expected, temperatures are warming up more than we originally forecast. National was at 53 with a high overcast by 1pm, and it was in the lower 50's in most other places. Further south, it was 57 in Fredericksburg. With continued sun and a southwest wind ahead of a low-pressure area that was moving into western Pennsylvania at mid-morning, we will be close to the normal high for the date of 54, an unusual event this March. Around midnight last night, radar showed scattered areas of snow showers in the mountains of West Virginia and about as far east as Hagerstown in Maryland, but very little was reaching the ground. Hagerstown did report a trace of precipitation overnight. (This must be one of those "Discount Snow Storms" eBay was advertising over to the right last night.) Today, the nearest activity around 1pm is widely scattered rain showers in central Maryland and a bit east of I-81 in northern Virginia. The model forecasts have been consistently over-predicting precipitation for the DC area from this situation, but we still can't rule out the possibility of a shower of flurry later in the day. The most likely time for this would be late this afternoon or early evening.
The weekend
For the weekend, a mixture of clouds and sun with a slight chance of rain or snow showers should continue with colder temperatures, as described by Jason below.
The Weather Channel
I was living in Woodstock, NY in the early 80's when our local community antenna with about 10 channels was upgraded to a "real" cable system. The TV's and VCR's in those days didn't have digital tuners, so you had to manually tune in a channel to a particular button. I remember my excitement when I twisted the tiny knob to find all weather, all the time. Now, I have to agree with Jason that it's a lot less appealing. I hope I don't sound like I have stock in the company since this is my second mention of it here, but the answer to this (besides the Web, of course) is TiVo. (I don't; they have a great product but terrible financial performance.) By leaving the box tuned to that channel, you always have the most recent 30 minutes of content available. You can use fast-forward to get the approximately 5 minutes of useful content out of that in 5 minutes or less, and you can use pause on the radar loop if necessary. I find that this technique works quite well with CNBC also, if you don't care about the conventional wisdom regarding the latest oil price blip.
Editorial note: If you need basketball coverage and want to look more productive at work, the Post is running a blog from the MCI center. You can get to it here
Thursday, March 10, 2005
Mid-day update
Now
A very weak trough of low pressure moved over the area this morning, bringing with it some light snow flurries, enough to whiten the ground in a few areas. Washington National reported light snow at 8am with a temperature of 28. Temperatures are a bit higher than yesterday at this time, in the mid 30's at noon and upper 30's at 1pm. Highs should be in the low 40's under partly cloudy skies.
Later
As Josh explains below, the model predictions are bringing a low pressure area which was over Minnesota this morning southeastward and off the coast. This has the potential to give us some light precipitation on Friday and Friday night. We have been misled at times by the models recently, but both major U.S. models this morning were showing that temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere will be cold enough for anything which does fall to be snow. As has been usual in the recent upper air flow pattern, the major storm development should be off the coast with most of the precipitation occurring in northern and eastern New England.
Broadcast news
Our friend Tony Pann of Channel 9 will be starting a weekly weather talk show beginning April 10 on WCBM 680 AM at 3pm.
Don't try this at home, kids
You wouldn't want to try this with WSSC water rates, but check out NPR's report yesterday on what you could do with industrial quantities of water, months of sub-freezing air, and perhaps a wee bit too much time on your hands in the long Alaskan winter.
Image: Ice sculpture from Alaskan Alpine Club, via NPR
A very weak trough of low pressure moved over the area this morning, bringing with it some light snow flurries, enough to whiten the ground in a few areas. Washington National reported light snow at 8am with a temperature of 28. Temperatures are a bit higher than yesterday at this time, in the mid 30's at noon and upper 30's at 1pm. Highs should be in the low 40's under partly cloudy skies.
Later
As Josh explains below, the model predictions are bringing a low pressure area which was over Minnesota this morning southeastward and off the coast. This has the potential to give us some light precipitation on Friday and Friday night. We have been misled at times by the models recently, but both major U.S. models this morning were showing that temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere will be cold enough for anything which does fall to be snow. As has been usual in the recent upper air flow pattern, the major storm development should be off the coast with most of the precipitation occurring in northern and eastern New England.
Broadcast news
Our friend Tony Pann of Channel 9 will be starting a weekly weather talk show beginning April 10 on WCBM 680 AM at 3pm.
Don't try this at home, kidsYou wouldn't want to try this with WSSC water rates, but check out NPR's report yesterday on what you could do with industrial quantities of water, months of sub-freezing air, and perhaps a wee bit too much time on your hands in the long Alaskan winter.
Image: Ice sculpture from Alaskan Alpine Club, via NPR
Wednesday, March 9, 2005
Mid-day update
Today's menu
Momma Nature lost all track of the calendar down at the Weather Grill, so they've had to clean out the freezer by putting lots of winter leftovers on the menu. They were in such a rush that they didn't take the time to thaw all the ingredients; many meals were sent back to the kitchen yesterday. Today's lunch specials include more below-January-normal temperatures, and the breeze gusting over 20 mph makes it feel even colder. Around the area, temperatures were barely reaching the freezing mark at noon, heading for a high no more than the upper 30's. It's also very dry, with dewpoints in the single digits; without the wind, it would have been even colder last night than the official low of 20.
A bit of history
In the classic words of SCTV, our low pressure area from yesterday "blowed up real good" in the Gulf of Maine. The isobars are crowded so close together on this morning's weather map that it's a bit hard to read, but I think I see the digits "962" as the minimum pressure in mb. This is stronger than all except one of the 20 classic snowstorms from 1955-85 analyzed by Kocin and Uccellini in their book "Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the United States". (I notice from the news at the link above that TVLand will be airing SCTV beginning March 18. If you're too young to have seen this before, stay up late, clear the space on your TiVo, do whatever it takes, you must watch. This just in from the Irony Dept: The blogger spell-check suggests "castoff" as an alternative to "SCTV".)
Contest faux pas
Our FROPA contest seems to have been a faux pas, since we don't have any entries. If we get some T-shirts printed up, will that help next time? It seemed like a good idea, but it didn't get reviewed by the quality control folks at the Weather Grill. Because of the dynamic nature of weather data and the Web, it's not that easy to find a verifiable record of 24-hour temperature changes. When I tried to check the recent history at the local high school, I got the message "Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80040e07' " Thank you, Mr. Bill! The nearby middle school came through, however. The biggest 24-hour temperature drop I found was at 1pm, just after the snow ended yesterday, when the temperature of 27.5 was a whopping 41.9 degrees below Monday's at the same time. There were 5 hours which had day-to-day temperature drops over 40 degrees. These temperature changes are much more characteristic of the Midwest than the East Coast.
Still hope for spring
Despite the latest antics of the Weather Grill kitchen crew, spring is still on the way. The first estimate of the peak for the cherry blossoms in Washington is April 4-9.
Momma Nature lost all track of the calendar down at the Weather Grill, so they've had to clean out the freezer by putting lots of winter leftovers on the menu. They were in such a rush that they didn't take the time to thaw all the ingredients; many meals were sent back to the kitchen yesterday. Today's lunch specials include more below-January-normal temperatures, and the breeze gusting over 20 mph makes it feel even colder. Around the area, temperatures were barely reaching the freezing mark at noon, heading for a high no more than the upper 30's. It's also very dry, with dewpoints in the single digits; without the wind, it would have been even colder last night than the official low of 20.
A bit of history
In the classic words of SCTV, our low pressure area from yesterday "blowed up real good" in the Gulf of Maine. The isobars are crowded so close together on this morning's weather map that it's a bit hard to read, but I think I see the digits "962" as the minimum pressure in mb. This is stronger than all except one of the 20 classic snowstorms from 1955-85 analyzed by Kocin and Uccellini in their book "Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the United States". (I notice from the news at the link above that TVLand will be airing SCTV beginning March 18. If you're too young to have seen this before, stay up late, clear the space on your TiVo, do whatever it takes, you must watch. This just in from the Irony Dept: The blogger spell-check suggests "castoff" as an alternative to "SCTV".)
Contest faux pas
Our FROPA contest seems to have been a faux pas, since we don't have any entries. If we get some T-shirts printed up, will that help next time? It seemed like a good idea, but it didn't get reviewed by the quality control folks at the Weather Grill. Because of the dynamic nature of weather data and the Web, it's not that easy to find a verifiable record of 24-hour temperature changes. When I tried to check the recent history at the local high school, I got the message "Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80040e07' " Thank you, Mr. Bill! The nearby middle school came through, however. The biggest 24-hour temperature drop I found was at 1pm, just after the snow ended yesterday, when the temperature of 27.5 was a whopping 41.9 degrees below Monday's at the same time. There were 5 hours which had day-to-day temperature drops over 40 degrees. These temperature changes are much more characteristic of the Midwest than the East Coast.
Still hope for spring
Despite the latest antics of the Weather Grill kitchen crew, spring is still on the way. The first estimate of the peak for the cherry blossoms in Washington is April 4-9.
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