Arctic Ice Reaches Second Lowest Minimum

The National Snow and Ice Data Center has announced that this year's Arctic sea ice has reached a minimum extent which is second only to last year's record low. The 2008 amount is 15.0% higher than the 2007 record, but it's 33.1% less than the average from 1979 to 2000. This year's minimum extent was reached despite the fact that the current summer's temperatures have been somewhat cooler.

The geographic distribution of this year's minimum ice extent was somewhat different than last year's. The opening of the Northern Sea Route, north of the Siberian coast, along with the simultaneous opening of the Northwest Passage, allowed the circumnavigation of the Arctic by sea for the first time in recorded history.

Image from National Snow and Ice Data Center

Ike Strikes: Hurricane Hammers Houston

After making landfall at 2:10 am at Galveston, Hurricane Ike is gradually weakening as it moves further inland over Texas. The storm made landfall as a large Category 2 storm, and its effects are being felt far inland. At 10 am CDT, maximum winds were 80 mph, with higher gusts, and the storm is likely to remain a hurricane into Saturday afternoon.

Hurricane Ike caused widspread damage, especially from coastal flooding, across the Galveston/Houston area. Hurricane force winds blasted windows out of Houston high-rise office buildings, and massive power outages affecting virtually the entire metropolitan region left as many as 4 million customers without power. The Houston mayor has appealed for water conservation in response to low pressure in the water system. Preliminary estimates indicate that Ike caused between $8 billion and $18 billion in insured losses.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles, and tropical storm winds up to 230 miles, from the center. Other effects associated with the storm include very heavy rain and an increased threat of tornadoes.

Ike was centered about 20 miles north northeast of Huntsville, Texas, at 11am, moving north at 16 mph. A turn more toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed should occur tonight and Sunday.

Images (top to bottom): Debris outside the JPMorgan Chase building in Houston from N.Y. Times; Hurricane Ike radar and satellite views from The Weather Channel; Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Surge Continues To Rise As Hurricane Ike Approaches Landfall$100 Billion Impact Predicted

11 pm Update: Hurricane Ike has strengthened this evening to a maximum level Category 2 storm with winds up to 110 mph. The circulation structure has become more organized, and a 40-mile-diameter eye has developed. Doppler radar wind speeds in the northern eyewall have been measured as high as 130 mph at 6500 ft. Hurricane force wind gusts have been reported on Galveston Island.

The center of the storm is wobbling, but it's moving generally northwest at 12 mph. From its position about 55 miles south southeast of Galveston, landfall will occur before dawn on Saturday.

Water levels have already reached 9 to 12 feet above normal along a large section of coast, and storm surge up to 20 feet is likely near the center of the storm.

Original post:
Storm surges have been steadily increasing along the northwest Gulf Coast as very large Hurricane Ike continues to approach landfall. The Category 2 storm is being continually monitored by aircraft reconnaissance, and these measurements show the maximum wind is still 105 mph. The hurricane force winds extend out up to 120 miles, and the tropical storm force winds up to 275 miles, from the center.

The storm remains on a track veering between west northwest and northwest, moving at a speed of 12 mph. At a distance of 135 miles southeast of Galveston, Ike is now about 10 to 12 hours from landfall.

Tide gauges are showing water rises of 8 to 9 feet so far in the Galveston area, and storm surges are forecast as high as 15-20 feet near and to the right (north) of the landfall.

Texas Governor Perry is predicting "Hurricane Ike Could Be Costliest Ever", with a $100 billion dollar impact. This would make Ike the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. In anticipation of the storm's effect on refineries, wholesale gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were as high as $4.85 a gallon today. Natural gas prices were also up, rising 2.6%.

See previous posts for the earlier history on Ike.

Images (top to bottom): Tide gauge readings at Pleasure Pier, Galveston, from NOAA/NOS; Hurricane Ike satellite view and storm surge forecast from The Weather Channel; Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center

Dangerous Hurricane Ike Approaches Texas Coast 100 mph Winds Expected By Midnight

2 pm Update: Winds and storm surge are already being felt along the Texas coast as Hurricane Ike moves closer. Tide gauges in the Galveston area have measured surges of 6 to 8 feet as of 11 am CDT, and sustained winds as high as 52 mph have been reported from an oil platform 35 miles offshore.

Ike remains a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 105 mph, but tropical storm and hurricane force winds continue to cover a very wide area. At 1 pm CDT, the center of the storm was moving west northwest at 12 mph from a position about 165 miles east of Galveston.

Images (top to bottom): Tide gauge readings at Pleasure Pier, Galveston, from NOAA/NOS; Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel; Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center

Original post:
Very large Hurricane Ike continues to head toward the Texas coast. Maximum winds increased a little overnight to 105 mph. The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office reported that an oil platform in the northwestern Gulf observed a sustained wind speed of 109 mph at an elevation of 400 feet. At 10 am CDT, an oil platform 35 miles east of Galveston was already reporting tropical storm force winds of 46 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend up to 275 miles, from the center.

The major threat from Ike is for flooding from storm surge which could be as high as 20 feet near and to the right of the storm's center. The Houston Chronicle is reporting online that water is already in the street in Galveston's Strand area.

This video from KTRK, via CNN, shows the extent of flooding already this morning on Galveston island:



Ike's appearance on satellite is somewhat less symmetric this morning, and the maximum winds are away from the center, but additional strengthening to lower Category 3 is still possible before the storm makes landfall. The hurricane has wobbled a little to the west, but the general track remains west northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph. A turn more to the northwest later today will bring the center to a landfall very near or to the south of Galveston early on Saturday. At 10 am CDT, the center was located about 195 miles southeast of Galveston.

The latest local Weather Service statements, including watches, warnings and evacuations, for affected areas from Texas through the northern Gulf are available here.

PM Update: Hurricane Ike Poses Life-Threatening Flooding Threat

11 pm Update: There is virtually no change in the intensity or track of Hurricane Ike at 11 pm. The minimum pressure has risen slightly to 956 mb. The current location of the center is about 340 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. On the forecast track, Ike will make landfall somewhere near Galveston in about 24 to 30 hours as a Category 2 storm. The main risk from Ike is for a very large storm surge near and to the right (north) of the center.

8 pm Update: It's sounding like a broken record, but Hurricane Ike continues to have maximum winds of 100 mph, and it's moving west northwest. The forward speed is just a little bit faster, though, at 12 mph. A slightly more northerly track is expected by late Friday. The dimensions of tropical storm and hurricane force winds also remain the same as before.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center, Galveston Wave Cam at 6 pm local time

5 pm Update:Hurricane Ike continues to be a very large Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. The storm is moving west northwest at 10 mph toward a landfall on the Texas coast Friday night. Model runs this afternoon have shifted the track of the storm more to the north, and the forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This brings the landfall closer to, but still south of, the Galveston/Houston area. Average forecast track errors at 36 hours are about 100 miles.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 115 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend up to 275 miles, from the center. Because of the large extent of strong winds, a much higher storm surge is likely than would otherwise be expected from a storm of this intensity. The National Hurricane Center has warned:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Complete hurricane local statements for affected Gulf Coast areas, including evacuation orders, are available here.

3:30 Update:The National Weather Service has issued the following warning for Gulf-facing coastal areas from Matagorda to High Island, Texas:

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Complete hurricane local statements for affected Gulf Coast areas, including evacuation orders, are available here.

Original post:

Hurricane Ike's Intensity Holding Steady

As of 2 pm, Hurricane Ike is still a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. The storm has made a slight jog to the northwest, but it's still on a generally west northwest track at 10 mph toward a Texas landfall by late Friday. The storm's circulation is very large, with hurricane force winds extending up to 115 miles and tropical storm winds extending outward 275 miles.

See the previous post for why Ike's IKE (integrated kinetic energy) matters. WeatherUnderground has posted projections of worst-case storm surge scenarios for various locations along the Texas coast.

Ike's IKE: Yikes!

As we've been pointing out here since shortly after Hurricane Ike emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, this is one humungous storm in physical size, if not in intensity. Jeff Masters has a very interesting analysis in his blog this morning of the coincidentally-named IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) of Ike. Simply put, this is a measure of the total wind force being generated by the entire storm. On a scale of 0-6 for the potential surge-wave damage rating, Ike gets a value of 5.6 this morning. That reading is higher than any Atlantic storm in the last 40 years. At their peaks, Katrina and Wilma were both 5.1. Ike's IKE value is 50% higher than Katrina's at landfall in Mississippi. If Ike strengthens any further, as forecast, the potential for storm surge damage is very high.

Image from Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold, via Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Category 2 Hurricane Ike Heads Toward Texas Coast, Warnings IssuedForecast to Intensify Before Landfall

11 am Update:The strength and track of Hurricane Ike remain unchanged at 11 am, but the size of this very large storm has increased even further. Tropical storm winds now extend up to 275 miles from the center. Warnings have been issued for a large portion of the Texas and western Louisiana coasts:

• Hurricane warning from Morgan City, Louisiana westward to Baffin Bay, Texas.
• Tropical storm warning from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas.

Original post:
Hurricane Ike remains a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph as it moves toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ike has an unusual structure, since the lowest pressure of 946 mb would normally be associated with at least a strong Category 3 storm. The inner core is small, with an eye only 10 miles in diameter, but the area of strong winds is large, especially in the northern half of the storm. Hurricane force winds extend as far as 115 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend up to 255 miles. Ike's expected track will miss some of the warmest water in the Gulf, but it is still forecast to become a major hurricane before landfall.

After moving northwest for a while last night, Hurricane Ike is now moving west northwest at a slightly faster rate, 10 mph. At 8 am, the center was located 575 miles east of Brownsville, Texas. There is still some wavering among the models over the strength of the high pressure ridge to the north of the storm, but landfall on the central Texas coast is predicted for late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Regarding the specific track, the National Hurricane Center continues to caution,

IN THIS CASE IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.