Friday, January 9, 2009

Inauguration Weather Forecast Update: Cold Chances Continue Climbing

If you're thinking about what to pack for a trip to the Inauguration in Washington, you might want to start looking for Click and Clack's proverbial Bronco Nagurski long underwear. January 20 is now smack dab in the middle of the 8-14 day extended forecast range. The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, for the week of Jan. 17-23, shows an intensifying Arctic outbreak across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Although the core of the coldest air is forecast to remain to the north, from northeastern Pennsylvania across New York and into New England, the Washington region is expected to have a 50-60% chance of below average temperatures for the 7 days centered on Inauguration Day.

For precipitation, probabilities are still 40%+ for drier than average conditions.

For what it's worth, and not to be taken literally (read the caveats), the 11-day model forecast specifically for January 20 (bottom map on the right) shows a very cold air mass extending from eastern Canada southward along much of the East Coast.

Today's temperatures (preliminary):
High 39
Low 27
Departure from average: -2
Month to date: +1.4

Today 0
Month to date 1.78"
Departure from average +0.85"
Days with measurable accumulation: 2

Click here for all Inauguration Weather posts.

Images (click to enlarge): 8-14 day temperature and precipitation forecasts from Climate Prediction Center/National Weather Service/NOAA; GFS model output map for sea level pressure, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation, 7 am, January 20, 2009, from NCEP/NWS/NOAA

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.