Washington Summer Heat Record Clinched By Huge Margin

Midnight Update: It's official; the daily high/low of 96/71 goes into the record books to close out the Summer of Simmer 2010, subject to final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center.

5:25 PM Update: The final high temperature of meteorological summer comes in at 96°, confirming the new record. Updated charts to follow shortly.

5 PM Update: The hourly temperature has returned back to 94°, so the high of 95° is likely to hold, unless there was a higher reading between hours.

4 PM Update: The temperature of 95° at 4 pm clinches the higher summer average of 81.3°, barring an almost physically impossible breakdown in the low by midnight. This smashes the old record for hottest summer of 80.0° in 1980 by an unprecedented margin. The current monthly average also rises, to 80.1°, tying for the 9th hottest August.

3 PM Update: The temperature is 94° for the second consecutive hour.

Original post:
As of 2 pm today, the Washington high/low temperatures so far of 94/71 have broken the hottest average summer temperature record by an unprecedented margin of at least 1.2°. One more degree increase on the high, which is quite likely, would raise that to 1.3°. Normally, even individual monthly average temperature records are broken by only a tenth of a degree, so breaking the 3-month record by 12 or more times that amount is even more remarkable. This is the 52nd day of the summer with a temperature of 90° or higher and the 57th of the year.

Some of the records set this summer:

• Hottest summer
• Hottest 3 consecutive months
• Second hottest of any 2 consecutive months
  
• Hottest individual month (tied)
  
• Hottest June
  
• Hottest July (tied)
• First time any 3 months in the same year averaged 80° or higher
• First time summer average daily high exceeded 90°
• 5 individual daily highs
  

War on Science Update: UVa 1, AG 0

As promised 10 days ago, a Virginia judge this morning ruled on the state Attorney General's request for University of Virginia documents and emails pertaining to Michael Mann's climate research. The demands by Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli were rejected "in their entirety, without prejudice to the Commonwealth to proceed according to the law."

More from:

• Charlottesville Daily Progress: Updated: Judge sides with UVa in climate case, dismissing Cuccinelli demands
• VaFreedom: Academic freedom wins (for now)!
• Blue Virginia: Cuccinelli Loses Another Battle in War on Science
• ClimateProgress:Breaking: Judge rules against Cuccinelli’s witch-hunt aimed at Michael Mann and climate science

Summer of Simmer Update: Counting Down the Heat Parade; 4 3 2 1 Days to Record Hottest Washington Summer

Monday, Aug. 30, 5:30 PM Update: Today's preliminary high of 96° brings the August average to an even 80.0°. If Tuesday averages at least 78° (for example, 88°/68°), the month will end up at 80.0°. An average of 81.5° (95°/68°), as forecast, would bring it up to 80.1°. That would tie the 9th hottest August.

Observed
Daily high/low:  96/73
Aug. average:    80.0
Summer average:  81.2
90°+ days:       56

Forecast
Aug. 31          95/68
Aug. average:    80.1
Summer average:  81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3
90°+ days:       57  

Monday, Aug. 30, 4 PM Update: Temperature has been 95° for 2 consecutive hours.

Monday, Aug. 30, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm, the high is 95°.

Monday, Aug. 30, 1 PM Update: The temperature hit 92° by noon and has risen another 2° in the last hour, so the forecast high of 96° is well within range. This is now the 56th day with 90° or higher temperatures.

The morning low of 73° was 2° above the forecast.

Sunday, Aug. 29 Update

Observed
Daily high/low:  92/70
Aug. average:    79.9
Summer average:  81.2
90°+ days:       55

Forecast
Aug. 30          96/71
Aug. 31          95/68
Aug. average:    80.0
Summer average:  81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3
90°+ days:       57  

Saturday, Aug. 28 Update If the forecast temperatures are met or exceeded for the next 3 days, the old record hottest summer will be beaten by an amount equal to the range of the previous 13 hottest summers.

Observed
Daily high/low:  89/68
Aug. average:    79.8
Summer average:  81.2

Forecast
Aug. 29          92/67
Aug. 30          96/68
Aug. 31          96/69
Aug. average:    80.0
Summer average:  81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3  

Original (Aug. 27) post:
Today's high temperature at Washington of 83° as of 5 pm is 2° below the 30-year climatological average, but the summer average to date of 81.2° is still well above the old record hottest summer. Even if temperatures were to remain average for the next 4 days, the seasonal average would still come out to 81.0°, a full degree above the 1980 record.

On the other hand, the forecast indicates that the lower 90s will return as early as Sunday, with mid to upper 90s likely before the month and season end on Tuesday. Plugging in the forecast temperatures, the summer average will finish right where it is now. This would be a greater margin than the difference between the current hottest and 10th hottest summers.

The expected 3 days of 90°+ temperatures, plus an additional 2 days extending into the beginning of September, would bring the yearly total to 59, tying the second highest annual number of 90°+ days.

Not only will this summer be the first season ever to average above 80°, but it will be the first time that the average daily high has been above 90°, eclipsing the 89.4° in 2002. If August averages 80° or higher (It's likely to be 79.9° after today.), this will also be the first time 3 consecutive months have averaged at least 80°.

Stay tuned as we count down to the record through Tuesday.

Pre-Season Preview: Preliminary 2010-2011 Winter Outlook

There are still a few more days to summer, but preliminary winter outlooks are already being issued. Bloomberg reports that Rockville, MD based MDA Federal is forecasting a relatively warm winter for the U.S., the warmest in 5 years. The prediction for 2,515 heating degree days in the U.S. is slightly less than the 10-year average of 2,577 and considerably below the 2,767 last winter.

The temperature forecast calls for temperatures in New York to be 2.5° above the 30-year average and in Chicago 2° above.

The latest 3-month outlook for December through February from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also shows near to above normal temperatures for most of the country.

Expectations of lower demand for the winter have done little to support natural gas prices, which have dropped 31% so far this year.

Featured Question: Total Number of 90 Degree Days in Washington, DC Since 1950

See Washington DC Weather Records for the latest update.

Today's Featured Question comes this morning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration headquarters in Silver Spring, MD, via Google:
"total number of 90 degree days in washington, dc since 1950"
As shown in the previous Summer of Simmer update, the total of 54 days of 90° or higher temperatures so far this year (49 this summer as of August 26) is one of the highest yearly amounts on record. The total number from 1950 through 2010 to date is 2172, or an average of 35.6 per year. Since the record of 67 was set 30 years ago in 1980, there have been 7 years with 50 or more:

1983 55
1988 57
1991 59
1993 51
1995 52
2002 56
2010 54 

FOIA Follies: Yes, Virginia, There is a Disclosure Clause

Here's a letter to the editor in today's WaPo relating to the Virginia Attorney General's fishing expedition at UVA:

After reading about the estimated $30 million that the U.S. attorney's office spent on the Rod Blagojevich trial ["A Blagojevich defense, funded by taxpayers like you?," front page, Aug. 21], I'd like an investigation into how many taxpayer dollars Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II is spending on "a team of lawyers" to investigate a University of Virginia professor's climate change research paper ["Judge to rule on Cuccinelli probe of climate study," Metro, Aug. 21].

It's absurd that in a time of enormous budget challenges, Mr. Cuccinelli has nothing better to do than spend millions of taxpayer dollars investigating the scientific findings of our state's premier academic institution. Not to mention the millions of tax dollars the University of Virginia will probably spend defending itself in this monkey trial.

If Mr. Cuccinelli has run out of actual criminals to prosecute, it's time to look at his office for spending cuts.

Umang Varma, Falls Church

How about it, WaPo? Isn't it time for a FOIA request? The Climate Capitalist is proud to disclose that, except for 60 days of NOAA Commissioned Corps training at Norfolk, he is not now, never has been, and never intends to be, a citizen of the Capital of the Confederacy and is therefore ineligible to file, but "representatives of the media" are certainly permitted to do so.

Go, Terps!

Tumbling Dice: U.S. August Heat Records Outpacing Cold By 7:1

"Do [you] feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?" How 'bout these odds:

With a little over a week left in August, U.S. daily maximum temperature records are outpacing minimum records by the torrid pace of 7:1. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center reports that through Sunday, August 22, a total of 845 daily high temperature records have been set in the 50 states, more than in all of July. Meanwhile, the number of low temperature records is only 121, less than half of the July total.

The ratio of heat records to cold records is almost exactly 7:1 for the month so far. Following a January and February in which cold records exceeded heat records, this is now the 6th consecutive month in which heat records have predominated. In 5 of those, the heat records have been at least double the cold records; the ratio for the year to date has now risen to 2.25.

Image (click to enlarge): Total number of daily high and low temperature records set in the U.S. for spring 2010 (March-April-May) and June, July, and August to date 2010, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose. Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.