Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike Makes Second Cuban Landfall, Headed for Gulf

At 10:30 this morning, Hurricane Ike made a second Cuban landfall. The center of the storm crossed the south coast of western Cuba in extreme southeastern Pinal Del Rio province. Ike is continuing to move west northwest at 13 mph from a position 55 miles southwest of Havana. On this track, the hurricane will cross western Cuba and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.

Reconnaissance data indicate that Ike is a Category 1 storm with maximum winds of 80 mph, although recent satellite images imply a stronger storm. Models show a wide range of strengthening in the next several days, but Ike is likely to be a major hurricane in the Gulf.

Monday, September 8, 2008

PM Update: Weakened Hurricane Ike Moving Along Cuba's South Coast

8 pm Update:Hurricane Ike continues to move along the southern coast of Cuba. The storm is now heading west northwest at 12 mph. It's still a Category 1 storm with maximum winds of 80 mph. As of the latest advisory, the center of Ike was located 35 miles south southeast of Cienfuegos, Cuba, and 165 miles east southeast of Havana.

Original post:
Hurricane Ike has weakened from its encounter with Cuba to a Category 1 storm. Aircraft reconnaissance has measured the maximum winds at 80 mph. At 5 pm, the center was located 45 miles southeast of Cienfuegos, Cuba, and 215 miles southeast of Havana.

Ike continues to move westward along the southern coast of Cuba. The current track is west at 14 mph, but a much-anticipated turn to a slightly more northerly direction is still expected tonight. Computer models have been trending toward a stronger high pressure ridge to the north once Ike is in the Gulf of Mexico. This implies a more southerly track in the direction of a landfall on the central Texas Gulf coast, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Scroll down to the previous post for Hurricane Ike videos.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center, Ike computer model track forecasts from Weather Underground

Hurricane Ike Video

Hurricane Ike video from Associated Press, via YouTube:



Reuters video, via N.Y. Times, shows a wave breaking over a multi-story apartment building: Click here.

Strong Hurricane Ike Moves Westward Across Cuba

2 pm Update:At 2 pm, Hurricane Ike was back over water, centered 80 miles west of Camaguey, Cuba and 250 miles east southeast of Havana. Ike remains a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. A reconnaissance flight is enroute to measure the strength more directly.

1 pm Update: It appears from satellite and Cuban radar imagery that the center of Hurricane Ike has emerged over the Caribbean Sea off the south coast of Cuba.

Original post:
Hurricane Ike has crossed eastern Cuba and is continuing westward near the southern coast of the island. The storm has weakened somewhat over land, but it is still a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds estimated from radar and satellite at 100 mph. A reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this afternoon to better determine the current strength.

Ike is moving west at 14 mph from a position 45 miles west southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. The current track will take the storm along or near the southern coast of Cuba and then across the western end of the island and into the Gulf of Mexico, where some restrengthening is likely.

Ike's exact path in the Gulf depends on the interaction between the storm and several upper level circulation features to the north. At this point, a landfall anywhere from Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is possible, but the most likely target is the upper Texas coast in the vicinity of Houston/Galveston. Some models are trending further east, however, so western Louisiana is certainly not out of the question.

Ike's passage across Cuba is causing major damage to buildings, agriculture, and infrastructure, especially the electrical grid. Dr. Jeff Masters predicts that Ike will be one of the five most damaging storms in Cuban history. Although it will be approaching from the land side, Ike's path is likely to take it very near Havana on Tuesday.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center, Ike computer model track forecasts from Weather Underground

Hanna Rainfall: Deep, but Narrow

Total rainfall for 24 hours ending 8 am, Sept. 8, 2008



Eastern Region


Eastern Maine


Southern Maine/New Hampshire


Southern New England


New York City Region


Philadelphia Region


Washington DC/Baltimore Region


Southern Virginia

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Major Hurricane Ike Approaches Cuba;
Leaves Behind Trashed Turks, Hammered Haiti, Injured Inagua

2 am Update: Hurricane Ike is now centered just inland from the Cuban coast. The center is in the province of Las Tunas, 85 miles east of Camaguey. Maximum winds are still 120 mph.

11 pm Update: Hurricane Ike is now on the northern coast of eastern Cuba. At 11 pm, the center was just west of Cabo Lucrecia, or about 135 miles east of Camaguey, Cuba. Maximum winds are still near 120 mph. Ike continues to move toward the west at 13 mph. A west to west northwest track is expected for the next day or two, taking the storm to near western Cuba by Tuesday.

Click here for Hurricane Ike photo slideshow.

Original post:
Hurricane Ike weakened a little this afternoon as it approached eastern Cuba. Aircraft reconnaissance found maximum winds of 120 mph. This puts the storm at Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The strength may vary overnight, but Ike is expected to reach Cuba as a major hurricane. Some weakening will occur as the storm moves over eastern and central Cuba for 24 to 36 hours, but the amount of weakening will depend on how much time the center spends over land. Restrengthening is then likely as Ike emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

At 5 pm, the center of the storm was located about 75 miles north northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, and it was moving west at 14 mph.

Hurricane Ike leaves behind significant destruction in the Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, and Great Inagua Island. Flooding in Haiti from Ike has raised the known death toll from the four recent storms to 262, but that number is almost certain to rise. A Miami Herald reporter on the scene in the town of Cabaret on the road from Port-au-Prince to Gonaives witnessed "bodies on every street corner." On the Turks and Caicos Islands, 80% of the homes were reported damaged.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike track forecast from National Hurricane Center

Dangerous Hurricane Ike Threatens Bahamas, Cuba, Florida Keys

Hurricane Ike has maintained its Category 4 strength as it heads through the southeastern Bahamas toward eastern Cuba. Aircraft reconnaissance this morning has found little change in the central pressure or the maximum winds of 135 mph.

At 11 am, the center of Ike was located very near Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas. The storm's generally westward track will bring it near or over eastern Cuba tonight. As Ike continues westward, the storm will weaken somewhat over Cuba, but it is expected to regain strength after it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Florida Keys, and evacuations have been ordered.

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to race off to the northeast, leaving behind widespread heavy rains and flooding. The storm has now lost its tropical characteristics as it moves northeast at 36 mph toward the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for New Brunswick, portions of Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland.

The center was located about 60 miles north of Chatham, Massachusetts at 11 am. On its current track, the remnants of Hanna will pass over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and on into the North Atlantic, reaching a position northwest of Ireland late in the week.

Images (top to bottom): Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike and Hanna forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.