Showers Developing, Some Possibly Severe

Now

Overcast. Despite some earlier sunshine through the overcast and weak southerly breezes, temperatures have struggled to reach 60° in the Washington metro area today. Although Dulles reached 62° early this afternoon, National only made it to 59°.

As a strong low pressure area in the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys continues to develop and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes, showers, some heavy at times, and possible thunderstorms will move into the local area. The AP, via the WaPo non-ex-tree edition, reports that severe storms associated with this system have killed one and injured at least eight people in the Gulf States. The Storm Prediction Center has reported 13 tornadoes so far.

Pictured: Surface weather map and satellite picture at 1pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers developing, possible thunderstorms. Showers will develop from the southwest overnight and become heavier and more widespread into the afternoon tomorrow. Rain may be heavy at times, and a few thunderstorms are possible. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s, and highs tomorrow will be around 64°.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

This year's Atlantic tropical season may have been lackluster, especially by 2005's record-breaking standards, but the eastern Pacific continues to churn out vortices. Sergio became a rare November hurricane this morning, the 10th of the season in the eastern Pacific. This is apparently the first time since 1961 there have been 2 eastern Pacific tropical storms in November. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph, but the track is expected to remain off the Mexican Pacific coast for the next 5 days.

Also of tropical origin, although not a cyclone, was the moisture which recently brought very heavy rains and flooding to the "other" Washington. NPR's Morning Edition reported this morning that Mt. Rainier National Park remains closed after severe flooding and mudslides from as much as 18" of rain. The unprecedented damage could result in the longest closure of the park's 100+ year history.

Mild Mid-Month, Maybe More Moisture Midweek

Now

Partly sunny, mild. Sunshine through breaks in the overcast and mild Pacific-origin air behind the coastal storm of the last several days have pushed temperatures in the Washington metro area well into the mid 60s this afternoon. There have even been some upper 60s in the southern fringes of the region and low 70s in Fredericksburg. Clouds will increase again tomorrow as a new low pressure area getting organized in the southern Plains deepens as it heads on a more westward track for the Ohio Valley, bringing some more rain, especially heavy west of the mountains, on Thursday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly Cloudy. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight will be from the low 50s downtown to the mid 40s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with the possibility of showers by evening west of the mountains and highs in the mid 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Climate Corner: AMS Draft Policy Statement

The Council of the American Meteorological Society, the nation's oldest and largest organization of meteorologists, has just issued a draft statement on climate change. After reviewing the current state of knowledge of climate change and its effects, the statement concludes:

Despite the uncertainties noted above, there is adequate evidence from observations and climate models to conclude that climate is changing; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; that further climate change will continue to have serious impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of these impacts. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.

Comments on the draft statement may be submitted to the Council until December 9. The previous statement on "Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences" was published in 2003.

The Council is also soliciting volunteers to help update the "Weather Analysis and Forecasting" statement, which was last issued in 1998.

Fat Lady Fails to Sing

Now

Soggy, cool. Sunday's rain, heavy at times, gave way to Monday's drizzle and mist, but a low pressure area lingering off the Delmarva coast kept the fat lady from singing the final aria in the Washington metro region's soggy opera. Damp conditions will continue through tonight, with gradual drying tomorrow and more pleasant temperatures.

Pictured: Visible satellite image earlier this afternoon from Unisys shows the low pressure area spinning off the coast. (Despite the eye-like appearance of the center, the system has a cold core, rather than the warm core of a tropical system.)

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradual clearing. Occasional drizzle and mist will persist into tonight, with fog in some areas. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50°. Considerable cloudiness in the morning will yield gradually to sunshine in the afternoon tomorrow with highs around 66°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Opera on the Mall

Today's WaPo reports ("Puccini to Give You the Shivers") on yesterday's remote broadcast of the Washington National Opera's performance of Puccini's Madama Butterfly using a giant screen on the Mall. Compared to the estimated 13,000 who attended last year's al fresco performance of "Porgy and Bess", the WaPo counted between 200 and 300 hardy opera lovers who braved the elements yesterday.

Mediarology

The podcast of Matt's discussion yesterday of the CapitalWeather.com winter outlook on WeatherTalk radio has been posted on the show's website.

Bipartisan Stamp of Approval

Now

Sunny, breezy, warm. Except for the extremist snow partisans, today's Washington metro weather should appeal to the entire political spectrum. The calendar says November, the wind gauge earlier said northwest with gusts over 25 mph, but the temperature this afternoon has been in the upper 60s and even low 70s in some places. The fine weather will continue through tomorrow's Veterans Day holiday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear and warm. Under clear skies tonight, low temperatures will be from the low 50s downtown to the mid and upper 40s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow promises to be even a little nicer than today, with less wind and high temperatures a few degrees warmer, in the low 70s in most places, some mid 70s possible.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Snow Stamps

Snow lovers shouldn't feel completely left out in this mild weather. The USPS recently released a set of 4 snowflake stamps as part of its annual holiday series. The stamps feature the snowflake photography of Caltech physics professor Dr. Kenneth Libbrecht.

Dr. Libbrecht's book, "The Snowflake: Winter’s Secret Beauty", covers the history of the science of snowflakes and includes numerous snowflake photos. His new book, "Ken Libbrecht's Field Guide to Snowflakes" was just published last month. It "describes the many different types of snowflakes, where and how to find them, and what can be learned from their intricate structures and patterns."

Winds of Change

Now

Damp, cool. In contrast to the strong winds of political change in the Nation's Capital, light atmospheric winds have allowed mist, drizzle, and some fog to linger this afternoon. Temperatures, however, are above 60° for the first time in a week (high as of 4:30 is 63°), and general improvement is on the way.

Rainfall has been substantial throughout the area, with the 1¾" at National equaling nearly 60% of the average monthly total for November. On the other hand, that's still not enough for a record, since the all-time November daily record of 3.07" was set on this date in 1943. As the low pressure area centered nearly directly over the region this afternoon moves slowly northeastward, gradual clearing and warmer temperatures will set in.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradually decreasing cloudiness, becoming warmer. Skies will remain overcast tonight with lows in the low 50s; a few lingering showers or some drizzle are possible through the evening, especially in the eastern portion of the region. Clouds and humidity will decrease tomorrow with highs near 69°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

As Goes November?

No amount of recounting will reverse the result that this fall through the first week of November has been cooler than average. A couple of weeks ago, PM Update noted that September-October average temperatures are not a particularly good indicator of the upcoming winter. What about November, since it's closer to the event? The chart shows that November average temperatures explain twice as much of the variance of the winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) average as do October temperatures, but that's still only 18%.

For Whom the Reign Falls

Now

Light rain, cool. To paraphrase an old quotation, the rain falls on Democrats and Republicans alike. Light rain was scattered through most of the Washington metro area this Election Day afternoon, but the heaviest amounts were well to the south in North Carolina, where Raleigh had already picked up over 1" as of 4pm. Once again temperatures have struggled to make it out of the lower half of the 50s; the high at National was 56°, but Dulles was only 53°.

As a low pressure area developing over the Southeast becomes more organized and moves northeastward, rain will increase tonight, tapering off tomorrow.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Rain, continued cool. Rain will become steadier and heavier tonight. Temperatures will remain mostly in the low 50s. Rain will diminish and become more intermittent around the middle of the day tomorrow, tapering off during the afternoon, but skies will remain cloudy with highs near 60°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below, and for CapitalWeather.com's Winter Weather Outlook, scroll down to Matt's post.

Political Storms

Andrew's Sunday Undercast explored some weather-related political issues. What about the effect of the weather on voting itself? Although conventional wisdom says rain depresses voter turnout, a site visitor noted last week that The Hill newspaper recently quoted Yale professor and "voter-turnout expert" Donald Green saying that "cliches about the weather on Election Day affecting turnout are bunk." On the other hand, University of Georgia visiting professor Brad Gomez says, in a study to be published in the Journal of Politics, that every inch of rain reduces overall voter turnout by 1%. I guess voter forecasting isn't the exact science that weather prediction is!

Some Rain on the Bandwagon?

Now

Cloudy, cool. Warm air moving over the top of the cold high pressure area which has dominated our weather for the last several days has produced considerable high cloudiness from NoVa across the Washington metro area into SoPa. This has kept temperatures in the low and mid 50s this afternoon (high of 54° at both airports), while in much of RoVa (rest of Virginia) more seasonable 60s prevail.

Meanwhile, as the high retreats eastward, a low pressure area developing over the Southeast has the potential to tap into some tropical moisture, bringing substantial rain to portions of the East Coast toward the middle of this week. (One model, most likely overdone, this afternoon develops as much as 9" of rain along and offshore of the Carolina coast in the 48 hours ending Thursday morning.)

Above: Surface weather map and satellite picture at 1pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cool, rain developing late. Skies will be mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 40s in the city to near 40° in the cooler 'burbs. Rain will develop from the southwest across the region Election Day afternoon, with a 60% chance of rain by evening in the immediate metro area. Highs will be in the upper 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Meet a Meteorologist

The Library of Congress has scheduled a talk on weather by Channel 4 meteorologist Bob Ryan next Wednesday, the 15th, at 11:30.

Mediarology

Correction: The fact-checkers at PM Update must have gotten into the Halloween candy again. The interview with Ted Turner and Richard Branson on the Weather Channel's "Climate Code" is scheduled for next Sunday, not yesterday as previously announced here.