Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Showers Developing, Some Possibly Severe


Overcast. Despite some earlier sunshine through the overcast and weak southerly breezes, temperatures have struggled to reach 60° in the Washington metro area today. Although Dulles reached 62° early this afternoon, National only made it to 59°.

As a strong low pressure area in the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys continues to develop and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes, showers, some heavy at times, and possible thunderstorms will move into the local area. The AP, via the WaPo non-ex-tree edition, reports that severe storms associated with this system have killed one and injured at least eight people in the Gulf States. The Storm Prediction Center has reported 13 tornadoes so far.

Pictured: Surface weather map and satellite picture at 1pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers developing, possible thunderstorms. Showers will develop from the southwest overnight and become heavier and more widespread into the afternoon tomorrow. Rain may be heavy at times, and a few thunderstorms are possible. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s, and highs tomorrow will be around 64°.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

This year's Atlantic tropical season may have been lackluster, especially by 2005's record-breaking standards, but the eastern Pacific continues to churn out vortices. Sergio became a rare November hurricane this morning, the 10th of the season in the eastern Pacific. This is apparently the first time since 1961 there have been 2 eastern Pacific tropical storms in November. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph, but the track is expected to remain off the Mexican Pacific coast for the next 5 days.

Also of tropical origin, although not a cyclone, was the moisture which recently brought very heavy rains and flooding to the "other" Washington. NPR's Morning Edition reported this morning that Mt. Rainier National Park remains closed after severe flooding and mudslides from as much as 18" of rain. The unprecedented damage could result in the longest closure of the park's 100+ year history.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.