Winds of Change

Now

Damp, cool. In contrast to the strong winds of political change in the Nation's Capital, light atmospheric winds have allowed mist, drizzle, and some fog to linger this afternoon. Temperatures, however, are above 60° for the first time in a week (high as of 4:30 is 63°), and general improvement is on the way.

Rainfall has been substantial throughout the area, with the 1¾" at National equaling nearly 60% of the average monthly total for November. On the other hand, that's still not enough for a record, since the all-time November daily record of 3.07" was set on this date in 1943. As the low pressure area centered nearly directly over the region this afternoon moves slowly northeastward, gradual clearing and warmer temperatures will set in.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradually decreasing cloudiness, becoming warmer. Skies will remain overcast tonight with lows in the low 50s; a few lingering showers or some drizzle are possible through the evening, especially in the eastern portion of the region. Clouds and humidity will decrease tomorrow with highs near 69°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

As Goes November?

No amount of recounting will reverse the result that this fall through the first week of November has been cooler than average. A couple of weeks ago, PM Update noted that September-October average temperatures are not a particularly good indicator of the upcoming winter. What about November, since it's closer to the event? The chart shows that November average temperatures explain twice as much of the variance of the winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) average as do October temperatures, but that's still only 18%.