Alaska Megastorm Update I: Hurricane Force Winds Predicted

Image (click to enlarge): The latest (8:30 pm GMT, November 7) satellite image shows an intensifying storm moving away from northern Japan and east of the Kamchatka Peninsula as it approaches the Bering Sea, from SSEC, University of Wisconsin

3:30 PM AKST Update: The National Weather Service is calling for this to be "one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record":

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST  
OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY INTO ONE OF THE  
MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM  
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.  
  
THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH  
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE   
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE  
EXPECTED ALONG THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND IN AREAS NEAR KOTZEBUE.  
WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND   
THE BERING STRAIT COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH HURRICANE  
FORCE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE STRONG  
WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 20 FEET OVER THE CHUKCHI  
SEA...AND TO 15 TO 25 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.  
  
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON  
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SEA LEVELS  
COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND  
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF  
NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. HIGH WATER  
LEVELS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN  
SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. STRONG WINDS AND WAVE ACTION MAY PUSH   
ICE IN NORTON BAY ON SHORE.  
  
MODERATELY ELEVATED SEA LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE  
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE  
SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN NORTHWEST...  
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO A HIGH AS 70 MPH WILL PRODUCE HIGH  
WAVES AND SOME ELEVATION OF SEA LEVELS...RESULTING IN SEVERE   
BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE VILLAGE OF  
KIVALINA WILL BE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE CAUSED BY  
BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING.  
  
THE STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES  
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST AND  
IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.  
  
AGAIN...THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING  
STORM WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE WORST ON RECORD OVER THE BERING   
SEA AND THE WEST COAST.  

Original Post:
This morning's forecast discussion from the National Weather Service notes that the storm developing in the northern Pacific has been well predicted so far by both the U.S. GFS model and the European model. The models have also been consistent from one run to the next. Winds are forecast to be locally as high as 75 mph along the Alaskan coast. Although the water level may not reach the record height of 1974, the potential for severe coastal damage is very high because of the lack of sea ice. From the NWS forecast discussion:

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH 75 MPH NEAR SAVOONGA  
AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SAVOONGA IS A  
SINGULAR POINT WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS BECAUSE ATUK  
MOUNTAIN...SUMMIT ELEVATION 2207 FEET...IS JUST SOUTH OF THE  
VILLAGE.   
  
THE STORM IN THE BERING SEA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS REMARKABLY  
SIMILAR TO THE BERING SEA STORM OF NOVEMBER 11 AND 12 1974. THE  
1974 STORM REMAINS THE MOST SEVERE AT NOME IN 113 YEARS OF  
RECORDS THERE. THE CREST AT NOME WAS A 13.2 FOOT RISE IN STATIC  
WATER LEVEL ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE CREST THIS TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY AT NOME IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 FEET.  
  
DUE TO A STRONG SOUTHERLY INFLUX OF WARMER AIR OVER THE BERING SEA  
COAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
AROUND THE ZONES OF THE YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND COASTAL  
ZONES. HENCE...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE IN EFFECT  
FOR THOSE AREAS.  
  
INDEED...THE SNOW ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE MIXED WITH  
RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT  
FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST. 

A Public Information Statement from Fairbanks says, in part:

ALL SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS ON THE BERING SEA FROM THE YUKON  
DELTA UP TO BERING STRAIT...AND THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST NORTH OF  
KOTZEBUE UP TO POINT HOPE...ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MAJOR COASTAL  
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS FROM 40 TO 75 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DRIVE UP THE SEA FROM 4 TO  
10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COASTAL  
FLOODING WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND THEN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL  
SUBSIDE THURSDAY. 
  
NEARLY ALL OF THE ALASKAN NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS ICE FREE AS OF  
TODAY...AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE FOR SOME TIME. KOTZEBUE SOUND AND  
NORTON BAY ARE ICE COVERED. LARGE STRETCHES OF NORTHWEST ALASKA  
COASTLINE HAVE VIRTUALLY NO ICE COVER TO LESSEN THE IMPACT OF  
INCOMING SURF. THIS WAS NOT SO IN THE 1974 STORM.   
  
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT TURN OUT TO BE AS  
INTENSE AS THE 1974 STORM...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.