Thursday, September 8, 2011

Record River Flooding Forecast for Susquehanna Valley in PA, NY

Sept. 8, 4 PM Update: Added storm rainfall map.

Sept. 8, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm, the river stage of 25.6 ft at Binghamton is above the old record. The current forecast crest is 26.2 ft.

Vestal is at 35.3 ft, which is over 1 foot above the old record, and the forecast crest is 36.9 ft.

The new forecast crest of 40.7 feet at Wilkes Barre is just 0.2 ft below the all-time record from storm Agnes in 1972.

Original post:
The record daily rainfall at Harrisburg on Wednesday was part of extremely heavy precipitation throughout the Susquehanna River watershed. As of midnight, the river depth of 16.4 ft. at Harrisburg was just below the flood stage of 17 feet. The crest of 26.2 feet predicted for Saturday would be the 4th highest on record at Harrisburg.

Upstream, the forecast 38.5 feet at Wilkes Barre would be the 2nd highest on record. At Vestal, New York, the current 30.5 feet is well above major flood stage, and the forecast of 34 feet would be an all-time record. The current 20.5 feet at Binghamton is also at major flood stage, and the forecast 26 feet early Thursday afternoon would beat the all time record of 25 feet on June 28, 2006.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Pennsylvania storm rainfall total, Sept. 4-8, 2011, from National Weather Service
- Observed and forecast river stages at Harrisburg, Wilkes Barre, Vestal, and Binghamton, from National Weather Service

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