The tropical wave which has been moving westward across the Caribbean has been declared a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center as of 6 pm EDT. If it develops further, it will become Tropical Storm Alex. This could happen as early as tonight or Saturday.
The forecast track brings the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Based on the expected track, there is at least a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds nearly anywhere in the western half of the Gulf in the next 5 days.
Summary information at 6 pm:
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5WImage (click to enlarge): Probability of tropical storm winds for the 5 days beginning 2 pm EDT, June 25, 2010, from National Hurricane Center
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Earlier this afternoon, CNBC reviewed the possible impacts of a tropical storm on the BP oil gusher cleanup and oil markets. "The timing couldn't be worse."
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