Monday, November 2, 2009

El Niño Continues to Strengthen

Nov. 5 Update: The monthly El Niño Diagnostic Discussion, issued this morning, confirms the strengthening trend:
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month (Fig. 3).

Original post (Nov. 2):
The latest weekly El Niño update, released today, shows sea-surface temperatures continuing to increase in all 4 of the El Niño regions in the tropical Pacific. Temperatures are at least 1°C above average in most of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions will continue to strengthen and last through the 2009-2010 winter.

See here for the winter outlook.

The latest El Niño regional temperature departures from average are:
Niño 4   1.6ºC
Niño 3.4 1.5ºC
Niño 3 1.2ºC
Niño1+2 0.4ºC
Image (click to enlarge): 2008-2009 El Niño regional sea-surface temperatures from NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.