Thursday, August 7, 2008

Vote Early and Often: Hurricane Forecast Revised

Update: Added link to actual NOAA forecast text.

Paraphrasing the old political adage, the tropical prognosticators are upping the ante on the outlook for the remainder of this hurricane season. NOAA's prediction, which was announced this morning, has raised the probability of an above-average season from 65% to 85%. The range of named storms has been bumped up by to two, to 14-18, and the number of hurricanes has been pegged at 7-10.

This update follows by a few days the revisions of the Klotzbach/Gray group at land-locked Colorado State. They're on the high end of the NOAA range, calling for 17 named storms vs. 15 in the previous forecast made in June. The other seasonal parameters include (previous forecast in parentheses): hurricanes 9 (8), intense hurricanes 5 (4), named storm days 90 (80).

At Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters has posted Part I of his August hurricane outlook, covering Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). He sees continued above-average SSTs. On Friday, he's planning to cover wind shear, steering currents, and dust levels.

Image of revised hurricane season forecast from NOAA.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.