Monday, July 7, 2008

Bodacious Bertha Category 3

Update (11 pm):Hurricane Bertha has increased to maximum winds of 120 mph as of the latest advisory. It continues to move toward the west northwest at 12 mph, but a gradual turn toward the northwest and north is still expected.

Correction (8:40 pm): The statistics on early season major hurricanes from the National Hurricane Center shown below apparently included only the Saffir-Simpson scale at landfall, so there were other occurrences, as well (for example, Emily became Category 3 on July 15, 2005). A more correct description of the list below would be: "All storms originating before August 1 which made landfall as Category 3 or higher since 1851." Clearly, that does not apply, at least yet, to the current case.

As of 5 pm, Hurricane Bertha is now classified as a major hurricane, Category 3, with winds up to 115 mph. It is continuing toward the west northwest at a decreased speed of 12 mph. A gradual turn toward a more northerly track is expected. Some fluctuation in intensity is likely in the next couple of days.

Except for Dennis in 2005, this is the first July Category 3 storm since Allen in 1980 and Celia in 1970, but these storms each formed originally on July 31. The previous earliest Category 3 or higher was Audrey in 1957.

All storms originating before August 1 reaching Category 3 since 1851 (from National Hurricane Center):
Date ---- NAME ---------- Saffir-Simpson scale
6 04 1934 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
6 25 1957 AUDREY . . . . .SSS=4
6 29 1916 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 04 2005 DENNIS . . . . .SSS=3
7 13 1909 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 27 1936 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 31 1970 CELIA . . . . . SSS=3
7 31 1980 ALLEN . . . . . SSS=3

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