Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Double Digit Deviations
Warm October continues into second half


Mostly sunny, warm. A high, thin overcast at times has not been enough to keep high temperatures from once again soaring to double digit deviations from the long-term average. By 4pm, National had reached at least 79°, (11° above average) and Dulles was 78°. Through the first half, the monthly average is now 9.2° above average. In the unlikely event this were to continue, the month would end up being nearly 4° above the record warmest October in 1984. One indication of the remarkable warmth of the past 2 weeks is that the average daily low so far of 61.5° would be high enough as an overall average to put the month in the top 20 warmest Octobers of the last 137 years.

No rain is in sight for at least the next couple of days.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, dry. A crescent moon will share the sky with some thin clouds tonight. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60° in the city and low to mid 50s in 'burbville. Tomorrow should be mainly sunny and continued warm with highs 78-82°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Capitol Climate

The House Committee on Science and Technology's Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight is holding a hearing tomorrow (10am, 2318 Rayburn HOB) on the effect of climate change on the Arctic, with particular emphasis on the threat of permafrost melting as a possible tipping point through the release of methane (not included in the modeling used for the most recent IPCC report). Other topics include "projections regarding the future survival of the polar bear; the loss of sea ice in the Arctic and new research on ice sheet melting; the decline of the boreal forests of the Arctic due to global warming; and strategies to reduce black soot and methane among other greenhouse gases."

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.