Thursday, October 18, 2007

DC Held Rainless: Day 34 ?
Chance of showers better tomorrow


Variable clouds, warm, more humid. OK, it's not as exciting as an impending snowstorm (and the threat of school closings), but it's an historic event when a record dry spell is broken, even if the last one was set only 12 years ago. With another 7 hours left before the record officially falls, there is actually something to look at on the radar for the first time in many days. The main action is well to the south, where a line of thunderstorms has moved out of southeastern Virginia and over the lower Chesapeake Bay. A small area of showers also extended earlier from Frederick Co. Maryland across the extreme eastern West Virginia panhandle and into western Loudoun Co. This has diminished significantly as it moved into the far western corner of Montgomery Co.

Temperature-wise, it's back to the 80s with both National and Dulles hitting 81° by 2pm. (Relative to the long-term average, that's about 5 weeks later than normal.) Around the metro area, nearly all locations have readings in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints into the moderately muggy mid and even upper 60s.

With this much humidity around and better dynamics, the chances for showers are higher tomorrow.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance of showers. Mostly cloudy skies tonight will have only a 20% chance of yielding a measurable shower before the record is set at midnight. Lows will be quite mild for the season, in the mid 60s downtown to near 60 in the cooler 'burbs (The record high minimum for the 19th is 65° at National and only 57° at Dulles). Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs 76-80° and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms (one model is even calling for a 100% chance). While this could break the rainless streak, most amounts are likely to be less than ¼", barely the average amount for 2 days.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

As the season continues to fade, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet.


The Weather Channel CD is now up to #43 on the Amazon music list.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.