Warm Up the Fireplace and DVD Player

Now

Cloudy and cool. The passage of a cold front last night has brought clouds and much cooler temperatures to the Washington metro area, but no rain so far. After a high of 75° at 2am this morning, temperatures have dropped steadily to the low 60s this afternoon. A low pressure area developing over Kentucky will bring increasing chances of showers and rain tonight through tomorrow and into the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Rain developing, cool. Showers are likely to develop by about midnight, with rain becoming steadier by morning and lows in the mid 50s. Tomorrow will be damp and quite cool with showers continuing through the day and highs only a few degrees above the lows, mainly in the mid 50s. (The record lowest maximum of 45° for Oct. 6 will not be in jeopardy.) The latest model output this afternoon indicates that the heaviest amounts of rain through early Saturday afternoon will be in central and southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

For the outlook through the weekend and Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

This parrot is still dead.

El Niño Update

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center/NCEP updated their El Niño outlook today. The latest sea surface temperature (SST) departures from average are more than 0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific, with some places as high as 1.5° above. The overall outlook is for El Niño conditions to persist through early next year. In an email interview with Reuters, CPC Development Branch Chief Vernon Kousky said,

It is safe to say that the current event will not strengthen to the level of the 1997-98 event. This event started several months later and is considerably weaker than the very strong 1997-98 event. The strongest El Nino events form during March-May.