Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Good While It Lasted


Sunny and warm. This afternoon's Washington DC area temperatures in the low to mid 80s are a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's, but the dewpoints in the mid 60s (relative humidities 50-60%) are making it feel even more summer-like.

Regional radar is dry as showers ahead of an approaching strong cold front have so far reached only as far as northern and western Pennsylvania.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers developing, becoming much cooler. Clouds will increase tonight with a 30% chance of showers after 2am. Lows will be near 60°. As Dan indicated earlier, tomorrow's forecast is a bit tricky, but today's models are indicating that skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs only in the mid 60s and a 30% chance of showers.

For the outlook through Friday and the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

The tropical Atlantic is totally dead, at least for now.

El Niño Update

ABC News (Australia) reported today that the Australian National Climate Centre is confirming the development of an El Niño pattern in the Pacific: "The key indicators include sea-surface temperatures above El Niño thresholds, sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), weaker than average Trade Winds during the past two months and increased cloudiness in the central to west Pacific."

El Niño is associated with hot summers in Australia, especially in the southeast. September was the warmest ever recorded in 147 years in Sydney, with 9 days exceeding 25°C (77°F). September was also warm and dry in New Zealand.

Pictured: Current tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and winds from PMEL/NOAA

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.