Got A Ticket to Rise: Heat Advisory Friday

** Heat Advisory in Effect From 2 PM to 8 PM Friday **

Now

Sunny, warmer, more humid. Temperatures have warmed considerably this afternoon in the Washington metro area, but the humidity has increased more; temperatures are about 10° higher than yesterday (mid 80s), but dewpoints are 15° higher (near 60°).

Temperatures and humidities both have a ticket to continue rising through tomorrow as a very strong low pressure area for the season (978 mb this morning) in the upper Midwest helps pump heat and Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. The heat wave should be short-lived however, with more comfortable conditions returning for the weekend.

Surface weather map at 2pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Becoming hot, humid; late-day storms possible tomorrow. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with warm temperatures and increasing humidity; lows will be from near 70° downtown to the low and mid 60s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny, hot, and humid with highs in the mid 90s. Heat index values will be near 100. Severe thunderstorms are a possibility from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu Gone-o

Unusually strong Tropical Cyclone Gonu continued to display an impressive appearance as it weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Iran in the early morning hours today. The storm was reported to have killed 28 people and caused significant damage in Oman.

Climate Corner

Today's WaPo carried a page A1 article, "Icy Island Warms to Climate Change", describing the effects of climate change on the 56,000 inhabitants of Greenland.

Meanwhile, at the G8 conference, the U.S. rope-a-dope climate strategy continued, as the final declaration stated, "In setting a global goal for emissions reductions in the process we have agreed today involving all major emitters, we will consider seriously the decisions made by the European Union, Canada and Japan . . ." Environmentalists were "were unimpressed."

D-Day: Delightful, Delicious, Delectabale

Now

Sunny, warm, low humidity. It's an exceptionally fine June afternoon here in the national capital region. Following a cold frontal passage last night the temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s throughout the area, and dewpoints are in the very comfortable 40s. Some scattered showers were observed overnight, but amounts were generally under 0.10"; National recorded 0.01" and Dulles had nothing. A warmup tomorrow will lead to hotter and stickier conditions for Friday.

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys shows a wide range of temperatures along the east coast and the 90s poised to return for Friday

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, becoming warmer and more humid. Lows tonight under clear skies will be in the upper 50s to near 60° in urban areas and the low 50s to possibly even some upper 40s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny, warmer and becoming more humid with highs 84-87°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu

Tropical Cyclone Gonu headed more northerly this morning with the center staying off the coast of Oman, but tens of thousands of people were evacuated, the country's oil exports were suspended, and a major port was closed. Oil markets this morning seemed to be more concerned with the weekly inventory figures, but the possibility of Persian Gulf export disruption remains as the weakening storm continues on a track toward the Straits of Hormuz.

Climate Corner

In conjunction with the G8 Summit currently being held in Germany, the UK Met Office has published a projection produced by the Hadley Centre for Climate Change showing the expected high temperature for the year 2057 in each of the G8 capitals. The highest predicted reading of 42.1°C is right here in Spin City, a 5°C increase from the current average yearly high. (For the Fahrenheit freaks, that's a not-so-kewl 107.8°).

Oh Man, You Gonu Like This Weather!

Now

Variable clouds, warm, less humid. A first shot of drier air arrived this morning on westerly breezes, and an even cooler and drier air mass will arrive overnight to provide a picture-perfect June day tomorrow. Temperatures this afternoon were again in the low 80s, but the humidity was considerably more comfortable with dewpoints about 10° lower, in the low and mid 50s. Showers on radar were very widely scattered and all were west of the mountains.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, comfortable. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will be from near 60° downtown to the low and mid 50s in 'burbville. There is a slight chance of widely scattered showers late tonight through early morning. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and dry with highs in the upper 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu Set a Record

Tropical Cyclone Gonu continues to set records as the strongest storm ever observed in modern times in the western Arabian Sea. It was approaching the eastern tip of Oman today on its way toward a predicted landfall on the coast of eastern Iran, thus sparing Oman from a direct hit. Some weakening has occurred from infiltration of desert air on the western side of the storm and from somwhat cooler water temperatures. The morning advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicated peak winds of 105 kt (about 120 mph). See yesterday's PM Update for more links on this very unusual situation.

Mediaorology

Yesterday's NYTi media business section contained an article, "Everybody Talks About the Weather; All of a Sudden, It's Controversial" discussing The Weather Channel's coverage of global warming in its Forecast Earth series. In honor of Hurricane Week, this past weekend's episode dealt with the issue of hurricanes and global warming. The show will be repeated several times this Saturday.

Warm and Muggy; Localized Showers and Storms

Now

Warm, humid, some storms. Shortly after 4pm, a small area of showers and thunderstorms extended from the far western corner of Montgomery County southwestward across the Potomac through eastern Loudoun County. This area was moving eastward and intensifying as it reached the northwestern part of the Beltway around 5:00. A strong thunderstorm in the Mt. Vernon area prompted a Special Marine Warning for the tidal Potomac and northern Chesapeake Bay until 6:30.

Otherwise, conditions have generally been variably cloudy, warm, and muggy in the Washington metro area, following yesterday's rain, shown on the map to the right. Temperatures were generally in the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Precipitation analysis from NWS for yesterday and yesterday night's rainfall shows widespread areas over 0.5" (green) in the metro area, but heavier amounts to the southwest and east.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lingering storms, warm, decreasing humidity. Some showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening, especially along I-95 between Washington and Baltimore; otherwise, skies will be variably cloudy with lows 63-68°. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s and decreasing humidity in the afternoon.

After a midweek cooldown, warm and humid conditions will return by the end of the week. For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The Atlantic and eastern Pacific are quiet today, but on the other side of the world a rare "super cyclonic" storm, Gonu, (T6.5, equivalent to Category 5) in the Arabian Sea is heading westward toward Oman, where a state of emergency has been declared. Sea conditions associated with the cyclone are forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department to be phenomenal. See pharmolo's Tropical Cyclones blog for history on this storm.

Heat Here, Humidity Not So Much (Yet)

Now

Sunny, very warm. Temperatures are once again in the very warm to hot range in the Washington metro area this afternoon with most readings from the upper 80s to around 90°. Leesburg was the local hot spot with 93° at 3pm. Although the humidity has crept upward, most dewpoints have remained in the low to mid 60s, which most people should find only marginally uncomfortable, especially with a persistent breeze around 10 mph.

Around noon, the NWS issued a Special Weather Statement regarding the threat for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm activity was expected to remain along and west of a line from Charlottesville to Frederick. Radar has confirmed the development of storms along the higher elevations, but so far they have remained generally west of I-81.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Very warm, more humid. Warm and increasingly humid conditions will continue through tomorrow. Lows under tonight's "blue" moon will be in the upper 60s to near 70° downtown and the mid 60s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow's highs will be again in the upper 80s to near 90°. There is only a small chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics: Weather Hazardous to Your Wealth?

In the Eastern Pacific, the last advisory has already been issued on ailin' Alvin, while Barbara is still expected to intensify, but to remain below hurricane strength. In the Atlantic basin, a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued for a stormy area in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical forecasters from land-locked Colorado State have taken the opportunity of the official start of Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow to announce . . . absolutely no change in their storm numbers or intensity from the April 3 forecast. The above-average seasonal prediction got a lot of play on CNBC this morning, including Liz Claman with live coverage from the floor of the NYMEX commodity exchange, but the energy markets were apparently not impressed; crude oil and gasoline prices were both down. One commodity trader who was interviewed, however, was bullish on orange juice futures, especially considering that the size of the Florida crop has been cut in half over the last 2 years.

If you are interested in profiting from the hurricane season, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has recently started a hurricane futures and options trading program covering 5 distinct geographic areas: Gulf Coast, Florida, the Southern Atlantic Coast, the Northern Atlantic Coast and the Eastern U.S.

For the lawyers out there, the preceding comes with no endorsement or guarantees from the management or staff of CapitalWeather.com.

Political Science

In light of the atrocities already committed in the War on Science being waged by the pollution industries and their political prostitutes right here in the fetid atmosphere of Spin City, it's hard to be surprised at anything these days, but the comments yesterday by the head of one of the two major government earth-science agencies were absolutely astonishing in their audacity. In an interview with NPR this morning, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin trashed the implications of the climate science being produced by his own agency and by most of the rest of the legitimate research community. In answer to host Steve Inskeep's question, "Do you have any doubt that this is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?", the Administrator answered, "I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with." NASA climate scientist James Hansen told ABC News,

It's an incredibly arrogant and ignorant statement. It indicates a complete ignorance of understanding the implications of climate change.

Apparently, Griffin has other plans for Earth. If they haven't done so already, astronauts should be seriously considering whether they want to risk their lives riding in faith-based rocketships.

Summer Steadily Simmering

Now

Sunny, warm. It's nowhere near the record hot May of 1991 (see Today in Weather History), but temperatures continue to trend toward closing out May on a summery note. Afternoon readings are only a degree or two warmer today than yesterday, but humidity is gradually on the rise. Dewpoints, aided by a more southerly breeze, have inched up through the 50s to near 60°.

The only showers on radar are widely scattered along the central portion of the Virginia/West Virginia border.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Very warm, increasing humidity. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be in the mid 60s in town to near 60° in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny, warm, and a little more humid, highs 87-91°. Precipitation chances from all models are almost unanimously in the single digits through tomorrow evening.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific was declared tropically depressed overnight. It continues weak, although convection increased somewhat this morning. It is expected to dissipate gradually within about 4 days.

Meanwhile, the second depression of the eastern Pacific season has become Tropical Storm Barbara. Unlike Alvin, Barbara is both closer to the coast and expected to intensify in the next several days to hurricane strength. Areas along the southeastern Mexican and Guatamalan coast have been advised to monitor developing conditions.

This is only the third time that 2 named storms have been observed during May in this region. The other years were 1956 and 1984.

High and Dry

Now

Sunny, warm, low humidity. The situation is not nearly as dire as the far Southeast, where drought conditions and some extensive wildfires prevail, but the Washington DC region's warm, dry spell is entering another week. Skies are essentially cloudless east of the mountains from Pennsylvania through Virginia. Temperatures in the metro area at mid afternoon were in the low to mid 80s, and humidity was in the comfortable range with dewpoints mainly in the low 50s and even a few upper 40s.

90-day precipitation chart from HPRCC/NOAA

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, pleasant. Under clear skies and a nearly full moon, lows tonight will range from near 60° in the city to the low and mid 50s in 'burbistan. Tomorrow should be much like today: sunny and warm with comfortable humidity and highs 83-87°.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. The storm, which has peak winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, is moving westward well off the coast of Mexico and is not likely to be any threat to land.

Mediarology

The PBS science series NOVA is repeating tonight a 2003 show featuring the unique 6 climatic zones of Mount Kilimanjaro. (Channels 22 and 26 at 8pm).

In recognition of the official start of hurricane season, The Weather Channel begins Hurricane Week this weekend. The featured Happening Tomorrow (9:30pm Sunday): Miami gets blown away by a major hurricane.