Inconvenient Clouds

Now

Seasonably mild. Thin, but persistent, high overcast is keeping Washington's official temperatures from reaching the expected 60s for the third consecutive day, although Dulles had a high of 60°, and, to the south, Fredericksburg touched 70°. Seasonably mild conditions will continue through most of the week as cold air now making its way into the northern plains works slowly eastward.

U.S. temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, continued mild. Mainly overcast skies this evening will give way to partial clearing by morning with lows in the low 40s downtown to the mid 30s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the low 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Science and Policy

The lame-duck Congress is back in session, so that can mean only one thing: Lock up your wives and daughters! Seriously, it's time for the next American Meteorological Society Environmental Science Seminar on Capitol Hill. The topic is "The Divide between Values and Behavior: Exploring American Perceptions of Global Warming and the Environment." Questions to be considered are:

Many in society still largely adhere to the notion that 'If we just tell people the facts, they'll reach the right conclusion.' Is this notion supported by research on risk perception, decision-making, and behavior? It is said that people think in terms of frames. How do frames differ from facts? What role do facts play in public perceptions and behavior regarding environmental risks such as global warming? What other factors influence perception and behavior? Is there a disconnect between environmental values and behavior? If so,why? Given the above, what are the most effective ways of communicating environmental risks?

• Date: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 (tomorrow)
  
• Time: 12:00 noon - 2:00 pm
  
• Location: Dirksen Senate Office Bldg., Room 106
  
• Note to starving interns: Buffet reception following.
  

The event is open to the public, RSVP not required.

This topic is especially relevant given the alarming WaPo Outlook article ("Science a la Joe Camel") yesterday by Laurie David, a co-producer of the climate change documentary "An Inconvenient Truth." Evidently Big Oil is not content with the already low funding of science education in this country but has gotten into bed with the National Science Teachers Association to actively undermine it with its own propaganda. What's next, free trans fats for Home Economics classes and cigarettes for the sports teams?

Slow Storm: A Turkey of a Travel Day

Now

Cold rain. Rain from a slowly moving strong storm off the Carolina coast arrived in the Washington metro area about 6 hours ahead of when it was "progged" by yesterday's models, throwing an extra spin into what is already a traditionally challenging travel day. The good news is that the earlier arrival implies an earlier departure as well, and a high pressure ridge building into the region afterward promises the reward of a much nicer weekend. (For the weekend details as well as the Travelcast, scroll on down to Dan's post below.)

Besides being driven by a northerly wind gusting over 25 mph at times, the rain is accompanied this afternoon by temperatures in the upper 30s after morning highs in the low to mid 40s. Radar late this afternoon showed a sharp cutoff of the precipitation to the northwest with the western edge from a little west of I-81 in VA to near Harpers Ferry WV and York PA. The heaviest rain was in a band from just north of Richmond northeastward across southern MD and into southern DE.

Pictured: Beach scene yesterday at Kill Devil Hills, NC, where winds gusted to 59 mph, from the Virginian Pilot. Alligator River, NC, had a gust to 82 mph. Storm total rainfall amounts on the Outer Banks were over 6" at Hatteras and Ocracoke (6.92") with considerable flooding.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Rain, possibly heavy, then ending. Rain tonight may be heavy at times, especially to the southeast of DC. Lows will be in the upper 30s to near 40°. Rain should taper to showers tomorrow morning, ending around noon with highs in the upper 40s.

Can Chilly, Clear Conditions Continue?

Now

Clear, chilly. Bright sun has been shining through nearly cloudless skies this afternoon, but its intensity is roughly equivalent to that of late January, and temperatures have been limited to the upper 40s in the Washington metro area this afternoon. Highs were 47° at National and 46° at Dulles.

The main weather question for this heavily-traveled holiday week is the timing and extent of rainfall from a low pressure area lurking off the Southeast coast. That storm, being fed by tropical water vapor from as far away as the central Caribbean and even the extreme eastern Pacific, was absolutely drenching the Outer Banks today; in the hour ending at 2pm, Cape Hatteras received over an inch of rain, followed by 0.57" in the next 22 minutes. Northward progress of the rain will be quite slow, however, because the circulation is cut off from the main flow of the westerlies. Contrary to wishful thinking expressed in some forums, there is no prospect of enough cold air for frozen precipitation in this region.

Pictured: Portion of Northern Hemisphere water vapor image mid afternoon today from Unisys.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Chilly, some clouds. Clouds will increase a bit tonight with lows near 36° in the city, low 30s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs around 50°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The last advisory on eastern Pacific storm Sergio was issued yesterday afternoon. Sergio was the longest-running eastern Pacific tropical storm ever observed in the month of November.

Political Science

Tom Toles comments on the recent election's impact on climate policy in today's WaPo editorial cartoon. The headline shown in the cartoon is a reference to Saturday's article analyzing changes in Capitol Hill committee assignments and priorities. Sen. Barbara Boxer, scheduled to be the new chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, has announced she plans to hold serious hearings on climate change, as opposed to the science fiction performances put on by the outgoing chair, Sen. Inhofe of Oilahoma. In a double-barreled reality check, not only is Inhofe losing his chairmanship, but he is being challenged by Sen. Warner of Virginia for the position of ranking minority member.

Fall Fading Fast

Now

Cloudy, cold. As we enter the last 10 days of meteorological autumn, a big southerly dip in the jet stream, accompanying northwesterly breezes at the surface, and a mostly overcast sky have prevented temperatures from breaking 45° in much of the Washington metro area this afternoon. National's high of 46° occurred before 11am, and the high at Dulles was only 43°. Meanwhile, radar shows very widely scattered snow flurries in the mountains of southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

As the jet stream dip becomes cut off from the main flow, potential holiday travel problems will develop and linger into the end of the week, especially over the Southeast.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Chilly. As clouds break somewhat tonight, lows will be near 34° downtown to the upper 20s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and chilly with highs near 50°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Multimedia

The DVD version of the climate change documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" is being released tomorrow. The DVD is currently ranked #6 in sales at Amazon, where it is being sold at a 43% discount. Extras include commentaries by the director and the producers, a 30-minute update with Al Gore, a "Making of" feature, and a music video by Melissa Etheridge. The packaging is made from 100% recycled materials. A portion of the proceeds from the sales will be used to help support the bipartisan Alliance for Climate Protection.

Also shipping soon is the DVD "Storms of 2006". All of the profits from the sale of this video, a volunteer effort by 55 storm-chasing contributors, will be donated to the American Red Cross disaster relief fund. Last year's edition, "Storms of 2005", was exhibited at the American Meteorological Society national meeting earlier this year.

Rain's Reign Rejected

Now

Clear, breezy. Northwesterly breezes gusting over 20 mph have put a slight nip in the air, but temperatures near 60° have made for a rather pleasant mid-November afternoon in the Washington metro area, especially compared to yesterday's drenching downpours. Although National touched 60° early in the afternoon, Dulles made it only to 59°. High pressure building in behind the departed low and some clouds from a weak upper level disturbance will result in seasonable, but cooler temperatures tomorrow.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, cooler. Under mainly clear skies and diminishing winds tonight, lows should be near 40° in town and mid to upper 30s in the 'burbs. Partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning will give way to increasing clouds in the afternoon and highs around 54°.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Precipitation Perspective

While yesterday's soaking was widespread, amounts varied significantly across the DC/MD/VA region. National and Dulles each recorded respectable amounts over 1", but BWI had 2.35".

Your view of where this fits in the larger scheme of things may have a lot to do with which side of the Potomac you sit on, however. If you've listened carefully to the WeatherTalkers Berk and Pann this year, you may have heard them talk of a Baltimore deficit of precipitation, even after the deluges of early summer and fall. In fact, the current excess of yearly precipitation at BWI of 2.41" is almost completely accounted for by the amount which fell yesterday. The area map, from the NWS New Precipitation Analysis Pages shows the year-to-date precipitation as a percentage of the long-term average. Although areas generally to the south and east of DC are 100-110% of normal (gray) or 110-125% of normal (green), large portions of central Maryland between the Beltways are at 90-100% (light yellow) or even 75-90% (dark yellow).

After Rain and Wind, Skies Now Clearing

Now

Except for the slight chance of a lingering shower this evening, precipitation has ended across the Washington metro area, with dry conditions likely taking hold for at least several days. Although the rain is for the most part finished, watch out for standing water on the commute home; several water rescues have already been reported.

Earlier today, heavy rain, winds gusting over 40 mph, thunderstorms, and possible tornadoes ahead of a very strong storm system centered in the Ohio Valley prompted numerous watches and warnings throughout the region. For a play-by-play of today's earlier activity, check out the Comments section of Josh's earlier post.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Pictured: Doppler radar from The Weather Channel shortly before 2pm shows a band of heavy rain across the DC metro area.

Showers Developing, Some Possibly Severe

Now

Overcast. Despite some earlier sunshine through the overcast and weak southerly breezes, temperatures have struggled to reach 60° in the Washington metro area today. Although Dulles reached 62° early this afternoon, National only made it to 59°.

As a strong low pressure area in the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys continues to develop and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes, showers, some heavy at times, and possible thunderstorms will move into the local area. The AP, via the WaPo non-ex-tree edition, reports that severe storms associated with this system have killed one and injured at least eight people in the Gulf States. The Storm Prediction Center has reported 13 tornadoes so far.

Pictured: Surface weather map and satellite picture at 1pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers developing, possible thunderstorms. Showers will develop from the southwest overnight and become heavier and more widespread into the afternoon tomorrow. Rain may be heavy at times, and a few thunderstorms are possible. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s, and highs tomorrow will be around 64°.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

This year's Atlantic tropical season may have been lackluster, especially by 2005's record-breaking standards, but the eastern Pacific continues to churn out vortices. Sergio became a rare November hurricane this morning, the 10th of the season in the eastern Pacific. This is apparently the first time since 1961 there have been 2 eastern Pacific tropical storms in November. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph, but the track is expected to remain off the Mexican Pacific coast for the next 5 days.

Also of tropical origin, although not a cyclone, was the moisture which recently brought very heavy rains and flooding to the "other" Washington. NPR's Morning Edition reported this morning that Mt. Rainier National Park remains closed after severe flooding and mudslides from as much as 18" of rain. The unprecedented damage could result in the longest closure of the park's 100+ year history.