The Big Queasy

August 23, 2015 update
Links have been updated wherever possible to access archived versions of original news reports.

8:00 PM update
Katrina is a tropical storm as of 8pm EDT, maximum sustained winds 65 mph, but "strong winds and heavy rains remain a threat." It is now moving east of north at a faster rate, 21 mph. This track should put it into west-central Tennessee early tomorrow. The Times-Picayune reports ["Nothing but rooftops"] late this afternoon, "For miles in the 9th Ward, there were only rooftops, with floodwaters lapping at the eaves, visible from I-10. Rows of homes were swallowed by water."
5:30 PM update
The 5pm EDT advisory has Katrina as a minimal hurricane, maximum sustained winds 75 mph, moving north through Mississippi. Catastrophic damage ["Catastrophic power failure
Monday 2:10 p.m."] to New Orleans' entire electrical system is expected to take over a month to repair.

4:30 PM update
For something lighter, check out Wonkette for what a man on the street in New Orleans told Fox News.
3:30 PM update
"Thousands of homes swamped, I-10 blocked as Katrina pummels region": Team coverage from the Miami Herald summarizes the current state of damage reports.
3:00 PM update
As of 3pm EDT, Katrina is a Category 1 storm, maximum sustained winds 95 mph, moving due north 20 miles from Hattiesburg, MS. Serious flooding is reported in the New Orleans area.
1:00 PM update
Katrina has been downgraded to Category 2, maximum sustained winds 105 mph, still moving north 40 miles SSW of Hattiesburg, MS. Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel reports 10 feet of water surrounding his location in Gulfport, first floor flooded. Most of downtown Mobile is flooded, according to CNN.
Noon update
The eye of Hurricane Katrina has now made final landfall between Slidell, LA and Bay St. Louis, MS. The strongest winds are in Mississippi. Widespread phone as well as power outages are reported in New Orleans.
In case you think the storm doesn't affect you directly in the Washington DC area, CNBC reports that oil prices are up over $2 a barrel to around $68.50 after being over $70 overnight in Asia. Natural gas prices are up 18% for the day on the futures contract which expires today.
11:00 AM update
The 11:00 EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center puts the center 35 miles ENE of New Orleans, moving N at 16 mph, max winds 125 mph, min pressure 927 mb. Jim Cantore's producer reports from Gulfport by phone that their rental cars and satellite truck have been flooded by storm surge, 27 feet above sea level, and water is coming in to the first floor of the building where they are staying. Biloxi, to the east, is reporting wind gusts to 78 kt.
10:30 AM update

The eye of Hurricane Katrina is passing just east of the city of New Orleans. The latest official report, at 9am EDT, put the center about 40 miles southeast of the city, moving north at 15 mph, maximum sustained winds 135 mph. Cable news channels are showing daylight through some rips in the fabric covering of the Superdome, allowing rain to fall inside. The Times-Picayune online reports from a morning emergency services teleconference:

In New Orleans, water topped a levee along the Industrial Canal. The city's 911 emergency system was out of service and Charity Hospital was on emergency power and windows had been blown out on five floors. . . . And a 20-foot tidal surge knocked out four pumping stations; only one was able to get back into service.

We will keep you posted through the day as conditions warrant.

Katrina Cranking Up

Well, we got the humidity part right in yesterday afternoon's forecast. Except for the lone holdout of National at 57, dewpoints are up into the 60s throughout the Washington meteorological reporting area. Temperatures are another story, since unexpectedly persistent cloud cover is keeping readings below 80. Radar is showing an area of showers from central and southern West Virginia eastward to near Charlottesville. There are also a few smaller areas in northern Virginia, although it's not clear how much of that is actually reaching the ground. Leesburg, which is a robo-observer and therefore somewhat suspect, did claim to have light rain at 4pm.
Just in case you think we're the only flip-floppers, here's the official NWS forecast from this morning for tomorrow:

PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

and the current one:

MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

Outlook
Tonight will be mostly cloudy, lows near 70; the chance of a passing shower cannot be totally ruled out. Tomorrow will again be mostly cloudy, highs around 80, and a 30% chance of showers in the afternoon or evening.

Tropical Topics

After taking a practice run at southeastern Florida last night, Katrina was briefly downgraded to a tropical storm, but it has now regained all of its strength and more over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At 2pm, Katrina was a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 969 mb; at 5pm the pressure had dropped to 965 mb. Although the center of the storm was 60 miles from Key West and moving away, a wind gust of 74 mph was reported at Key West Airport. The storm was still moving south of west at latitude 24.8 N, after having been as far north as 26 N before landfall. The longer the storm continues on this track before turning north, the more it is likely to intensify, and the further west the second landfall will be. Three of four models this morning were forecasting landfall at least as far west as Mississippi. The latest model run this afternoon, the NAM, keeps right on truckin' towards Texas at 72 hours. The SHIPS intensity model is forecasting maximum winds of 135 mph at 72 hours (Monday morning). As of 5pm, the official forecast track has landfall near the Mississippi/Alabama border.

For the latest news headlines on the storm, check out the Miami Herald's excellent storm page and their reporters' storm blog. Except for license-mandated bar closures between 5am and 8am, it was party time in South Beach. The Herald also has an interesting behind-the-scenes report on the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore's remote broadcast on the storm.

Afternoon Update

Once again, afternoon temperatures are in the low 80s in the Washington metro area, and National is reporting a dewpoint which hasn't been seen in some time: 49 degrees (relative humidity 31%). As cool as it has seemed, the morning low of 62 will make this the only day so far this week which has averaged below the long-term mean for late August. The month as a whole is still averaging 3.3 degrees above normal so far.
Outlook
Under mostly clear skies, lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer and a little more humid, highs in the upper 80s.
Tropical Topics

Hurricane Katrina continues on a westward course at 6 mph toward the southeastern Florida coast. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida coast from Vero Beach south to Florida City. There are also tropical storm watches in effect north and south of that area and for portions of the Florida west coast. At 3pm, the broad center of the storm was about 35 miles offshore in the vicinity of the Ft. Lauderdale/Boca Raton area. Maximum winds have been increasing steadily, reaching just below hurricane strength, 70 mph, at 3pm. At 3:30, however, reports from a NOAA aircraft and Doppler radar indicated that the storm had reached hurricane force. The storm is expected to track slowly westward across Florida tomorrow. Following that, the various models are producing a very wide "cone of uncertainty", varying anywhere from the Mississippi Gulf coast to well offshore of the Georgia coast by Monday morning. Rainfall amounts from this slow-moving storm are quite heavy. The Weather Channel reported that some offshore precipitation totals have been from 8 to 12 inches, based on Doppler radar.

Repeated by Popular Demand

It's almost a carbon copy of yesterday in the Washington metro area: temperatures in the low to mid 80s, dewpoints in the 50s. You'd have to go about as far south as Georgia to find temperatures in the 90s.

Outlook
Low temperatures will be in the mid 60s tonight, and highs will be around 84 again tomorrow, with a less than 10% chance of rain through tomorrow night.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Depression 12 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina this morning. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for southern Florida from Vero Beach to Florida City. As of 5pm, these advisories are also extended to Lake Okeechobee. Aircraft reconnaissance indicated maximum winds of 45 mph. The storm is moving north-northwest at 8 mph from a position about 200 miles off the southeast coast of Florida. Continued strengthening is expected, with the possibility of reaching minimal hurricane intensity before landfall in southern Florida. The models diverge somewhat on the ultimate track, but the official forecast brings the storm across southern Florida and back into the Gulf as a tropical storm, where it reintensifies into a hurricane. Because of the slow movement, the storm is likely to be a heavy rain event for the Bahamas and southern Florida.

Broadcast News: More on Weather Channel Makeover
The Aug. 1 issue of RealScreen magazine has an article about the Weather Channel's programming redesign from the point of view of Janet Johnson, VP of long-form programming. Among the new feature shows is something called Full Force Nature, which is intended to be "weather on steroids." Also on the schedule is, just what you've always wanted, more product placement. Multichannel Merchant reports that TWC and L.L. Bean have made a deal to outfit the Severe Weather Team. One item which is NOT on the schedule is "Who Wants to be a Meteorologist?"

Has the Weather Channel jumped the shark? Cast your vote.

Delightful

5:10 Update

Tropical Depression 12 has formed over the Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the central and northwest Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center expects further strengthening, and tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for portions of southern Florida tonight. The forecast track takes the storm across southern Florida into the Gulf, where further strengthening to hurricane force is possible. When and if it's named, it will be Katrina.

5:00 Update

It's not often that you hear the word "delightful" applied to Washington DC August weather, but that's the term of art for today. With a sky marred only slightly by a broken layer of clouds at 25,000 feet, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, and dewpoints are mainly in the 50s. The cold front which pushed through here has hung around to the south, bringing the kind of gloomy Tuesday to that area which we had the last couple of weeks. Radar at mid afternoon showed showers from just south of Ocean City southwestward back across the lower Chesapeake Bay and Tidewater Virginia. Norfolk, Newport News, and Langley AFB were all reporting light rain and temperatures of 75-77 at 3pm.

Outlook

For tonight, partly cloudy skies will be accompanied by temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow should be very similar to today: partly cloudy, comfortable humidity, and high temperatures near 83.

Tropical Topics

If you blinked, you missed Jose, which developed just off the Mexican Gulf coast and moved inland early today. It was already dissipating this morning about 70 miles from Mexico City, and advisories have been discontinued.

A "Special Tropical Disturbance Statement" was issued for the area in the southeastern Bahamas which was at least indirectly related to what was once T.D. 10. Advisories are beginning at 5pm; we'll post an update when something is issued.

The low which is now 650 nm west of the Cape Verde Islands continues moving west. Conditions are marginally favorable for development.

Extreme Makeover: Weather Channel Edition

An alert reader sent us a link to a Harper's Magazine article titled, "It's Going to Be a Hot One". This is a transcript of "a presentation given by Terry Connelly, senior vice president of Programming and Productivity, to female on-camera meteorologists (OCMs) at The Weather Channel in August 2003." Citing the example of Daryn Kagan of CNN "wearing a short black skirt with a slit up the side", he concludes that the "boundaries that we've set for ourselves shouldn't be there." The quotation ends with "Do you want to look old? That's what happens when you don't smile. And have a big nose." I guess this explains the exotic outfits and huge earrings Alexandra Steele has been wearing with all the goofy grinning and happy talk on the new version of Evening Edition.

Not So Doggy Day

After finishing July with 13 90-degree days (season total so far: 20), temperatures at mid afternoon were mainly in the upper 80s in the Washington metro area with sunny skies and light and variable winds. Even Leesburg was in line with other locations at 88. Humidities were marginally comfortable with readings from the mid 60s to a bit over 70. The only showers on radar within a couple of hundred miles were tiny isolated spots in the mountains of West Virginia.

Outlook

Low temperatures tonight under mostly clear skies should be near 70. Tomorrow will be a little warmer and more humid, highs in the low 90s.

Tropical Topics

Here is something we haven't seen much lately from the National Hurricane Center: "There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time." There are a couple of tropical waves each in the Caribbean and Atlantic, but none of them are showing signs of development in the near future.

Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean region, heavy monsoon rains are continuing. The death toll is near 1000 in the Mumbai (Bombay) region, and more heavy rain is expected. The Indian Meteorological Department publishes a daily monsoon report along with rainfall data.

Hurricanes and Global Warming

Meteorology Professor Kerry Emanuel of MIT published an interesting study of hurricane intensity in the online edition of the journal Nature yesterday. The article, titled "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", defines an "index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone." The study finds that the index has "increased markedly since the mid-1970s." The increase results from both increased storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. As measured by the index, the total destructiveness has roughly doubled over the 30-year period. The author concludes that "net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature." In other words, the observed increases in sea-surface temperatures appear to be related to increased total power of tropical storms.

These results are particularly significant because Prof. Emanuel, who is an expert in modeling hurricane intensity, has long been skeptical of alleged relationships between global warming and hurricanes. He is listed as the third author of a joint article titled "Hurricanes and Global Warming" which was accepted in June for publication in the Bulletin of the AMS. This article concludes that "claims of linkages between global warming and hurricanes are
misguided." Prof. Emanuel also wrote a favorable review in the May 2005 BAMS of Michael Crichton's scientifically dubious "State of Fear".

On the other hand, there are some serious caveats to the latest results. Improvements in airplane reconnaissance and satellite technology mean that recent storm data are more likely to be accurate than older data. This means that there is a relatively short time span available for comparison, even after making corrections for changes in methods of data analysis. A graph from the paper which is available online shows the wide scatter in the data points for the relationship between minimum air pressure and maximum winds. Hurricane-frequency forecaster Prof. William Gray of Colorado State University is quoted as saying, ''It's a terrible paper, one of the worst I've ever looked at." (C'mon, Dr. Gray, tell us what you really think!)

The full text of the article is only available by subscription, but it is being widely covered in the press:

• Boston Globe: "Hurricanes more powerful, study says"
  
• Seattle Times (Knight Ridder): "Scientist links global warming to rising ferocity of hurricanes"
  
• Seattle Post-Intelligencer (Scripps Howard): "Increasing fury of tropical storms linked to warming sea"
  
• Los Angeles Times: "Storms' Fury Linked to Warming"

Reflecting its continuing neglect of science and environmental issues, the Paper of Watergate and Don't Ever Forget It has the Associated Press article online and a 187-word blurb buried under "Ornithologists have discovered a male bird in South America that attracts mates by rubbing its wings together to generate 'songs.'" in the "Science Notebook" of the dead-tree edition.

Prof. Emanuel has published widely on the subjects of hurricanes and convection. He has a new book called Divine Wind on the history and science of hurricanes which is about to be published by Oxford University Press.

Prof. Gray is scheduled to release his updated hurricane season forecast on Friday.

Near Miss

Currently

It's the 31st, and the Washington DC metro area is on the verge of just missing a tie with 2003 for the coolest May since 1967. Temperatures in mid afternoon are in the upper 70s throughout the area, just below the long-term average high of 80 for the date. Frederick was the warm spot at 4pm with 81 degrees. At the beach, an easterly breeze is keeping Ocean City at 70 under sunny skies. Regional radar is totally clear in all directions. As a high pressure area centered over the Great Lakes spreads over the entire East Coast except for Florida, the nearest precipitation extends from near Atlanta to southern South Carolina.

Outlook

After maxing out around 80, temperatures tonight will drop to lows in the upper 50s. Partly cloudy skies tomorrow will be accompanied by highs again from the upper 70s to 80.

Tropical Update

Tomorrow is the official start of the hurricane season. Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University today updated his hurricane season forecast. He is forecasting a "well above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005" and "an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall." The new forecast increases the number of named storms (15), hurricanes (8), and intense hurricanes (4) from the earlier prediction made on April 1. The increase in activity is due to increased warming of the Atlantic Ocean and decreased likelihood of an El Nino developing in the summer and fall. The forecast probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3-5) landfall on the U.S. East Coast is 59%, vs. an average for the last century of 31%. The Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage, based on Dr. Gray's forecast, shows that the probability of landfall by 1 or more named storms in the mid-Atlantic region (northern Outer Banks through New Jersey) is 14.6%, vs. a long-term average of 8.6%. The next forecast update will be issued on Aug. 5. The update will include monthly predictions for August, September, and October.