Katrina Cranking Up

Well, we got the humidity part right in yesterday afternoon's forecast. Except for the lone holdout of National at 57, dewpoints are up into the 60s throughout the Washington meteorological reporting area. Temperatures are another story, since unexpectedly persistent cloud cover is keeping readings below 80. Radar is showing an area of showers from central and southern West Virginia eastward to near Charlottesville. There are also a few smaller areas in northern Virginia, although it's not clear how much of that is actually reaching the ground. Leesburg, which is a robo-observer and therefore somewhat suspect, did claim to have light rain at 4pm.
Just in case you think we're the only flip-floppers, here's the official NWS forecast from this morning for tomorrow:

PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

and the current one:

MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

Outlook
Tonight will be mostly cloudy, lows near 70; the chance of a passing shower cannot be totally ruled out. Tomorrow will again be mostly cloudy, highs around 80, and a 30% chance of showers in the afternoon or evening.

Tropical Topics

After taking a practice run at southeastern Florida last night, Katrina was briefly downgraded to a tropical storm, but it has now regained all of its strength and more over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At 2pm, Katrina was a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 969 mb; at 5pm the pressure had dropped to 965 mb. Although the center of the storm was 60 miles from Key West and moving away, a wind gust of 74 mph was reported at Key West Airport. The storm was still moving south of west at latitude 24.8 N, after having been as far north as 26 N before landfall. The longer the storm continues on this track before turning north, the more it is likely to intensify, and the further west the second landfall will be. Three of four models this morning were forecasting landfall at least as far west as Mississippi. The latest model run this afternoon, the NAM, keeps right on truckin' towards Texas at 72 hours. The SHIPS intensity model is forecasting maximum winds of 135 mph at 72 hours (Monday morning). As of 5pm, the official forecast track has landfall near the Mississippi/Alabama border.

For the latest news headlines on the storm, check out the Miami Herald's excellent storm page and their reporters' storm blog. Except for license-mandated bar closures between 5am and 8am, it was party time in South Beach. The Herald also has an interesting behind-the-scenes report on the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore's remote broadcast on the storm.