Thursday, May 19, 2011

Energy Market Shrugs Off NOAA's Above-Normal 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 20 Update: Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seaosnal hurricane forecaster, conducted an online chat at USA Today's Science Fair blog this afernoon.

Original post:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook at 11:30 this morning, calling for an above-normal level of activity:
  • 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
  • 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
  • 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
The major factors affecting the tropical season include:
  • Reduced wind shear and lower surface pressure over the tropical Atlantic
  • Higher pressure in the upper atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic
  • Warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures
  • Stronger African easterly jet stream

As this video from CNBC at 11:45 shows, Mr. Market couldn't care less. "Til it happens, we're just going to play it by ear", said a veteran trader.

If you think the market mechanism is a rational way to set energy policy, have I got a deal for you:

Note that the horizontal scale covers just a little over 2 and a half hours. The offering price for LinkedIn was $45. This is for a company which has no earnings and revenues which are about 1/30 of the IPO offering price.

Update: From someone who should know a thing or two about Internet bubbles, Henry Blodgett, see:
CONGRATULATIONS, LINKEDIN! You Just Got Screwed Out Of $130 Million

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