Monday, January 12, 2009

Inauguration Prognostication: Forecast Favors Dry, Cool DC Weather

Once again, as they have ever since January 20 moved within the target date window, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day extended range forecasts are indicating cooler and drier than average weather for the period leading up to and through the Inauguration. The 5-day interval centered on Inauguration Day (Jan. 18-22) is expected to be colder than average with at least a 60% probability. Conditions are likely to moderate toward the end of the period, with chances of cooler than average temperatures lowered to 40% or more for the 7 days of Jan. 20-26.

For precipitation, the chances of drier than average conditions are about 50% for Jan. 18-22 and 40% or higher for Jan. 20-26.

The specific daily model forecast (read the caveats!) continues to imply a moderating temperature trend beginning around Jan. 20.

Today's temperatures (preliminary):
High 40
Low 27
Departure from average: -1
Month to date: +0.7

Today 0"
Month to date 2.02"
Departure from average +0.76"
Days with measurable accumulation: 4 out of 12

Click here for all Inauguration Weather posts.

Images, top to bottom (click to enlarge):
6-10 day temperature,
8-14 day temperature,
6-10 day precipitation forecasts from Climate Prediction Center/National Weather Service/NOAA;
GFS model output map for sea level pressure, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation, 7 am, January 20, 2009, from NCEP/NWS/NOAA

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.