Monday, December 10, 2007

DC: Dreary, Chilly


Cloudy, damp, cool. While temperatures in the Washington metro area moderated somewhat from yesterday's damp chill, within about 100 miles, spring-like conditions prevailed from central Virginia southward. Daily temperature records were set at Lynchburg, Roanoke, Blacksburg, Richmond, Norfolk, and Wallops Island.

Temperatures in the low and mid 50s were accompanied by dewpoints in the mid and upper 40s, but despite the humidity, mist and haze were much more prevalent than rain showers, which were mainly light. Highs were: National 54°, Dulles 48°, BWI 47°.

Clouds and humidity will persist into tomorrow with at least a chance of some showers. The models frequently underestimate the tendency of this type of cold air wedge to hang on in the area, but some warmer air is likely to make it this far northward in the next couple of days before everything gets swept eastward toward the end of the week.

Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) from NWS/NCEP at noon today shows a 40° temperature range in about 100 miles from near DC to central Virginia.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, chance of showers, possibly milder. There's a 30% chance of light showers tonight with lows 41-45°. Some patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers, but some sun is possible, especially in the afternoon. Highs will be anywhere from 52-61°, depending on how much of the warm air can move northward.

Scroll down for Jason's outlook through the rest of the week and a weekend peek.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center issued an updated Special Tropical Disturbance Statement at 11 this morning on the low pressure area about 100 miles east of Puerto Rico. Although a tropical or subtropical cyclone could still form in the next day or so, upper level winds are now expected to become less favorable for development. Nevertheless, near gale-force winds and heavy rains are expected for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola.

Conference Report

The Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) got underway today in San Francisco. Over 15,000 geophysicists from all over the world are expected to attend sessions in all disciplines of earth and space science. Several major lectures are available as live webcasts, including "Abrupt Climate Change and Our Future" at 9:15pm Washington time on Wednesday.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.