November Chill Arrives, Unpacks for a Visit

Now

Sunny, windy, chilly. You won't be needing those L.L Bean flannel-lined jeans quite yet, but you might want to start thinking about where you filed them away in the spring. Aided by a deep low pressure area just north of the Great Lakes, a strong cold front has brought windy and cooler conditions to the Mid Atlantic area. By mid afternoon, temperatures had already dropped a couple of degrees from their earlier highs (National 58°, Dulles 54°, BWI 55°). The very dry dewpoints in the 20s and even upper teens are producing relative humidities mostly in the 25-30% range.

In keeping with our longer-term drought condition, rainfall amounts through this morning were quite puny, barely equal to the daily average in the immediate area: National 0.12", Dulles 0.11", BWI 0.22".

Following the first sustained cold spell in about 6 weeks, a warmup is starting to look possible for the holiday weekend, at least according to one major model.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mainly clear, cold. Under mostly clear skies tonight, lows will be in the upper 30s downtown and near to a little below freezing in the 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be sunny and chilly, with highs only in the low 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

Following up on Andrew's discussion of Noel 2.0 on Sunday, Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro has a nice analysis (with graphics) of the transition of The Storm Formerly Known as Noel in The Weather Channel blog.

Climate Corner: Washington De Sea?

The current (November) Washingtonian, now on display at a checkout line near you, has an article which asks, "Will Rising Sea Level Swamp DC?" A quick glance indicates the article may have fallen prey to the traditional tendency of journalism to sensationalize the graphics and to conflate the effects of sea level rise with storm surge and flooding precipitation. On the other hand, last year's heavy rains provided ample evidence that the National Mall and Federal Triangle areas are highly vulnerable to flooding, even without storm surge effects, and that mitigation efforts for this potential threat are slim to none.