Wednesday, August 22, 2007

The Dog Nose Days of August


Cloudy, very cool, humid. Like a dog's nose, the metro area's weather remains cool and damp. The record low maximum of 69° for today was threatened with breakage only through early afternoon, but the more optimistic temperature predictions by most forecasters were clearly busted. Some sun penetrated the continuing low clouds, but even by mid afternoon temperatures were struggling to pass 70° at most locations in the region. Despite the high humidity, however, radar has been clear in all directions.

A gradual decrease in cloudiness should lead to a warming trend, but there is wide disagreement among models on the pace of that warming.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Decreasing clouds, humid, gradual warming. Skies will be mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will decrease gradually tomorrow, and the actual amount of sun will strongly determine the degree of warming; model predictions range all the way from 77° to 89°, about as wide a range as you're likely to see around here. Humidity will remain high, but there is only a 20% chance of showers throughout the period.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

Hurricane Dean made a second landfall on the Mexican Gulf coast about 40 miles south of Tuxpan around 12:50 Eastern time today. The storm had strengthened back to a Category 2 (max winds 100 mph). It was already weakening over land this afternoon; by the 5pm advisory it was down to tropical storm strength. It is expected to quickly dissipate as a heavy rain storm over the mountains of central Mexico.

Elsewhere in the tropics, no development is expected in the Atlantic Basin for the next 48 hours.

The Phillyweather blog had some interesting comments yesterday about media coverage of the hurricane. Also in the blogosphere, The Weather Channel has some typically insightful comments by Dr. Greg Forbes on the persistence of Erin's remnants and by Stu Ostro on Dean's minimum pressure.

Local Event

Next Monday, the 27th, the Center for American Progress is presenting a panel discussion, "Forecast: Storm Warnings". This forum "will discuss the impact of global warming on hurricane severity and frequency. In addition, there will be a discussion of necessary federal, state, and local policies that would increase the resilience of hurricane prone communities. The forum will feature, Mayor Richard Crotty (R) of Orange County, Florida, hurricane scientist Dr. Peter J. Webster, John B. Copenhaver of DRI International, and Jane Bullock, former chief of staff of Federal Emergency Management Agency director James Lee Witt."

The event is free and open to the public, but RSVP is required.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.