Exceptional

Now

Clear, warm. It's another exceptionally nice spring afternoon in the Washington metro area. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s throughout the region. Humidities are somewhat higher than in the last couple of days but still quite comfortable. Clouds are likely to increase tomorrow, and there is a slight chance of showers.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds developing, warm. Tonight should be mostly clear and seasonably mild, with lows from near 60° downtown to the mid and upper 50s in the 'burbs. As a more easterly flow prevails tomorrow, some clouds should develop, and there is a 20% chance of showers. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement this morning for the non-tropical storm which has been hanging around about 230 miles off the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Satellite wind measurements showed 35-40 kt. winds off the coast, and strong winds and heavy surf were affecting the coast from Georgia through the Carolinas. "No significant strengthening" is expected, but an Air Force reconnaissance flight will be available if necessary tomorrow morning to investigate.

A posting at the WunderBlog indicates that the 31 days through today with no tropical storms anywhere in the world is the longest such streak since worldwide satellite surveillance became available in the 1980's.

Also on the tropical front, a paper in last week's (May 1) American Geophysical Union Transactions by Christopher Landsea takes some exception to the notion of a relationship between tropical cyclone activity and global warming. Landsea provides statistics which indicate that increases in the number of tropical storms in recent decades are due to improved observational technology (satellites and aircraft). This could be interpreted as contradicting the work of MIT's Kerry Emanuel and others which has supported a link with global warming. A significant aspect of Emanuel's work, however, involves the intensity of tropical cyclones, which does not appear to be considered in Landsea's analysis.

Enhanced satellite infrared image over the Southeast this afternoon from Unisys