Winter Tease, or Preview of the Real Deal?

Now

Sunny, seasonably cold. South and southwesterly breezes arriving overnight have helped moderate temperatures in the Washington metro area. Except for the missing 0.2" of snow, it has been nearly an average mid-January day, rising from a low of 26° to a high of 42°. Warming temperatures and an increasing threat of rain are on tap heading into the holiday weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, milder, chance of showers. Clouds will increase overnight with lows near 34° downtown, 29° 'burbtown. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers developing, more likely over and west of the mountains. Highs will be in the low 50s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

El Niño Update

NOAA's monthly El Niño Diagnostic Discussion was released today. It indicates that "There is an increased probability of observing El Niño-related effects over North America during January-March 2007." However, "Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST [Sea Surface Temperature] anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007."

Latest SST anomaly chart from NOAA's El Niño Page

ISO Snow

In our continuing occasional series for unrequited snow lovers, here is a place to look in the next couple of days. (And don't forget Today in Weather History.)

Political Science

In the interest of diversity, we present, without comment, the views of the John Birch Society on the NOAA 2006 climate report.