Upcoming Storm: A Mix, a Mess, or a Miss?

Now

Clear, seasonably cold. January is closing out the books on a cold note in the Washington metro area, with afternoon temperatures reaching only the low and mid 30s despite abundant sunshine; highs were 34° at National, 33° at Dulles and BWI. A storm system just beginning to organize itself along the Gulf Coast will bring increasing cloudiness and some wintry precipitation into the picture for tomorrow into Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, cold, some snow likely developing. Clouds will increase tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy in the morning with some snow likely developing in the afternoon, highs around 35°.

Analysis

Not a lot has changed since Dan's early afternoon update, so I won't repeat his post. The latest models have continued to support the notion of a storm track suppressed to the south of the Mid Atlantic area. Although there are some differences in the intensity of the storm development, both major U.S. models keep the heaviest precipitation from central and southeastern Virginia southward, where it would be mostly in liquid form. At this point, the observed storm system is extremely weak, and the models don't provide a lot of upper air energy support, so any major development is likely to take place well offshore, after precipitation has ended in this area. We're adjusting our snow accumulation potential chart to reflect the likelihood of lower amounts.

For the details of the rest of the week and the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

CapitalWeather.com chart, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Mediarology

Reliable sources tell us Larry King (CNN, 9pm) is scheduled to be focusing on climate change tonight. Expected guests: Inhofe, Boxer, Cullen.

Capitol Climate

Yesterday's House and Senate hearings on global warming policy were reviewed in a WaPo article today, "Lawmakers on Hill Seek Consensus on Warming". PM Update's favorite quote, from committee chairman Waxman: "All of us have a right to our own opinions as to the seriousness of global warming. We don't have the right to our own science."

Also covering the subject, among about 550 others, were the SF Chron, AP (via BoGlo), NYT, ChiTri, LATi, UK Guardian, Reuters, and the Financial Times.