November's Nice Nascence

Now

Sunny, mild. An approaching cold front has become nearly stationary just to the north and west of the Washington metro area this afternoon. As a result, southerly breezes have nudged temperatures into the low 70s at most locations, providing a very pleasant late fall day for working off some of that leftover Halloween candy with leaf raking or lawn mowing. Highs were 71° at National, 72° at Dulles and BWI.

Meanwhile, a low pressure area getting organized in the Tennessee Valley will bring some rain to the area late tonight and early tomorrow, followed by some of the coldest temperatures of the season by the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers developing, becoming colder. Clouds will increase tonight, with showers likely by morning and lows in the upper 40s to near 50°. Rain will end by mid day tomorrow with clearing skies in the afternoon and highs only around 54°, turning colder at night.

For the Friday outlook and into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

More Winter Outlooks

Matt is busy working on the Capitalweather.com winter outlook to be published soon. Meanwhile, Weather America's Larry Cosgrove has issued a winter outlook through his newsletter. He's calling for temperatures to average from near normal in southeastern Virginia to below normal (-1° to -3°) in the immediate DC area. Precipitation is forecast to be much above normal (greater than 125%) with DC right on the borderline between above normal and much above normal (greater than 125%) snowfall potential. Larry is scheduled to be the guest of the WeatherTalkers this Sunday.

An important factor in the upcoming winter outlook is the progress of the developing El Niño. The latest El Niño area 5-day average sea surface temperatures show equatorial Pacific anomalies strengthening to approach a maximum of +2°C.