Monday, June 12, 2006


An entire June week without air conditioning in the DC metro area has been a real treat, especially in light of large jumps in electric rates by Pepco (39%) and BGE (72%). That trend continues into at least part of another week while Alberto, the first storm of the new hurricane season, verges on hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

Outlook: Tonight and Tomorrow

Forecast Confidence: HighTonight's lows under clearing skies will be near 60 in the city to the low 50s in the cooler 'burbs with low humidity. Tomorrow will be sunny with more June-like highs in the low 80s.

For the outlook through next weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

This morning's showers brought a welcome 0.39" to National and a similar 0.35" to Dulles. The cumulative June precipitation map through last night from the National Weather Service shows widespread deficits for the month in the Washington DC region. The red-orange areas covering much of the immediate suburbs had received less than 25% of the normal monthly amount so far. The lighter orange areas had received 25-50% of normal.

The outbreak of sun this afternoon has allowed temperatures to rebound nicely from the chilly high 50s of late morning, although the official reading was still only 68° with an ESE wind at 4pm. The 12-degree jump in one hour at Dulles from 64° at 1pm to 76° at 2pm looks a little suspicious, although it does coincide with a wind shift from ENE to NW.

Talkin' Tropical

The new hurricane season is off to a fast start as what was a weak low pressure area with little prospects stubbornly overcame southwesterly wind shear to be near hurricane strength at 70 mph by late this morning. The latest projected path has been revised westward to keep the storm more inland after landfall tomorrow on the Florida Gulf Coast. It is shown moving through southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina before emerging back into the Atlantic as a depression over the northern Outer Banks. As of 5pm, a hurricane warning is in effect on the Gulf Coast from Longboat Key to the Ochlockonee River, and a tropical storm warning is in effect on the Atlantic Coast from Flagler Beach FL northward to the Georgia/South Carolina border.

It's buried with the bureaucratic news on the Federal Page, but today's WaPo has an article on the National Hurricane Center's experimental new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model for predicting hurricane intensity.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.