Tuesday, May 9, 2006

Unsettled and Unsettling

The unsettled weather pattern is continuing this afternoon in the Washington DC metro area as an Atlantic low pressure area heads toward New England. With more sun than clouds, however, temperatures have recovered nicely from yesterday's clammy 50s to the upper 60s or 70° by mid afternoon. Even Ocean City was up to 65° with an easterly breeze. After another dry day tomorrow, some rain is likely again by tomorrow night or Thursday.

Surface weather map and satellite picture at 2pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 50s in the city to the mid and upper 40s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow should be mainly sunny with variable cloudiness increasing toward evening and highs in the mid 70s.

Countdown to Hurricane Season: 22 Days

The USA Today Weather Guys had a pointer yesterday to a Miami Herald Sunday special report, "Sketches of a catastrophe", which explores possible hurricane scenarios for southern Florida. An interactive feature uses Flash animation to show the storm surge which could result from a "Katrina2" (equivalent to the Katrina which made landfall in Louisiana) or a "Wilma2" (equivalent to the Wilma which hit Yucatan). Using National Hurricane Center models, the simulated storms are shown making landfall in several locations: "in South Miami-Dade, at the same spot where Andrew made landfall; just south of downtown Miami and Coconut Grove; near Port Everglades and downtown Fort Lauderdale."

The most unsettling simulation is for Katrina2 passing just south of Key Biscayne. National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield is quoted saying, "These are absolutely not worst-case scenarios", but they are certainly scary enough. [The Flash download is somewhat slow on a dialup connection, but is doable with a little patience.]

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.