Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Eastern Blizzard Set Snowfall Records From Mississippi to Maine

December 29 Update: The December 26-27 snowfall map (click to enlarge) from the National Weather Service shows that the bullseye of the storm was in the northern New Jersey/New York City metropolitan area. The Eastern Coastal and Northeast maps of 24-hour liquid equivalent for frozen precipitation show the heaviest amounts near and along the coast.

Maximum snow totals were in the Union County area of New Jersey, to the west of New York, where amounts in excess of 2 feet were common:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
...UNION COUNTY...
RAHWAY 32.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
ELIZABETH 31.8 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELLE 28.7 710 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 27.0 745 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
FANWOOD 26.0 100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GARWOOD 25.0 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
Original post:
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the December 25-27 snowstorm set dozens of daily snowfall records from Alabama to Maine:
            Previous  Length of      
Snowfall Amount Year Record Location
12/25/2010
4.5 0.3 1989 52 AL HUNTSVILLE INTL AP (KHSV)
2.4 Trace 1993 70 AL MUSCLE SHOALS AP (KMSL)
1 Trace 1993 107 AL ANNISTON METRO AP (KANB)
2 0.2 1993 66 GA ATHENS BEN EPPS AP (KAHN)
1.3 Trace 1993 80 GA ATLANTA HARTSFIELD AP (KATL)
0.1 0 2009 69 GA MACON MIDDLE GA AP (KMCN)
1.4 Trace 1989 48 MS TUPELO RGNL AP (KTUP)
6.5 5.4 1969 62 NC ASHEVILLE AP (KAVL)
4.2 2.8 1947 107 NC GREENSBORO WSO AP (KGSO)
0.4 Trace 1999 65 NC RALEIGH DURHAM WSFO AP (KRDU)
0.4 Trace 1998 69 NC CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AP (KCLT)
1.6 1 1962 48 SC GRNVL SPART INTL AP (KGSP)
4.3 Trace 1948 65 VA DANVILLE RGNL AP (KDAN)
12/26/2010
1 0 2009 70 AL MUSCLE SHOALS AP (KMSL)
0.3 Trace 1992 52 AL HUNTSVILLE INTL AP (KHSV)
8 7.5 1969 68 CT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP (KBDR)
3.2 1.8 1976 68 DE WILMINGTON NEW CASTLE (KILG)
1.3 Trace 1953 66 GA ATHENS BEN EPPS AP (KAHN)
1.3 0.3 1972 62 KY LEXINGTON BLUEGRASS AP (KLEX)
9.9 9.4 1933 90 MA BOSTON WSFO AP (KBOS)
6.7 Trace 2004 65 NC RALEIGH DURHAM WSFO AP (KRDU)
1.6 1 1917 107 NC GREENSBORO WSO AP (KGSO)
1.6 0 2009 69 NC CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AP (KCLT)
0.5 0.4 1977 62 NC ASHEVILLE AP (KAVL)
0.1 0 2009 77 NC WILMINGTON INTL AP (KILM)
18.4 0.2 1970 63 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP (KACY)
11.3 1 2004 37 NY ISLIP LI MACARTHUR AP (KISP)
10.5 4.4 1969 62 NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP (KJFK)
10.2 4.1 1969 63 NY NEW YORK LA GUARDIA AP (KLGA)
11.6 1.5 1976 69 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP (KPHL)
7.9 6.1 1969 68 RI PROVIDENCE WSO AP (KPVD)
1.8 Trace 2004 68 SC COLUMBIA WSFO AP (KCAE)
0.7 Trace 1969 48 SC GRNVL SPART INTL AP (KGSP)
0.2 Trace 2004 80 SC CHARLESTON INTL AP (KCHS)
3.9 1.9 1969 100 TN KNOXVILLE AP (KTYS)
0.6 Trace 1983 62 TN JACKSON MCKELLAR AP (KMKL)
13.4 5 2004 64 VA NORFOLK INTL AP (KORF)
0.8 0 2009 65 VA DANVILLE RGNL AP (KDAN)
7 3.4 1989 47 WV BECKLEY RALEIGH CY AP (KBKW)
5.1 2.4 1976 51 WV BLUEFIELD MERCER AP (KBLF)
4 1.9 1976 62 WV CHARLESTON YEAGER AP (KCRW)
12/27/2010
4 1.1 1963 68 CT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP (KBDR)
10.3 2 1988 69 ME BANGOR AP (KBGR)
6.2 5.4 2005 71 ME CARIBOU WFO (KCAR)
6.5 4.7 1984 75 NJ NEWARK INTL AP (KEWR)
7.8 4.8 1984 134 NY NY CITY CNTRL PARK (KNYC)
5.1 3.2 1984 62 NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP (KJFK)

Monday, December 27, 2010

Northeast Blizzard Snow Totals Top 20" [Over 50 cm], Winds Reach Hurricane Force;
Near-Record Low Pressure

2 PM Update: At 7 am EST this morning, as the center of the Northeast blizzard was passing close by, Nantucket reported a barometric pressure of 28.46" and falling. This was just slightly above the all-time mainland U.S. pressure record set just a few months ago in Minnesota.

Noon Update: The images below (click to enlarge) from the National Weather Service show forecast storm total snowfalls from Delaware through New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New York and Connecticut.


Here are some of the highest updated snowfall reports from the blizzard pounding the Northeast. The data have been compiled from National Weather Service offices from Philadelphia through Portland, Maine, as of noon, Monday, December 27:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************  

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
MASSACHUSETTS

..BERKSHIRE COUNTY
WILLIAMSTOWN 22.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
OTIS 20.0 1002 AM 12/27
ADAMS 19.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
NORTH OTIS 17.0 645 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..BRISTOL COUNTY
TAUNTON 16.7 1004 AM 12/27 NWS OFFICE
MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

..ESSEX COUNTY
SAUGUS 17.0 447 AM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC
SALEM 17.0 1059 AM 12/27 SALEM STATE

..NORFOLK COUNTY
FOXBORO 16.5 955 AM 12/27

..PLYMOUTH COUNTY
BROCKTON 16.0 956 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

..SUFFOLK COUNTY
SOUTH BOSTON 17.0 1039 AM 12/27
EAST BOSTON 16.5 709 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE

NEW HAMPSHIRE

..COOS COUNTY
RANDOLPH 25.0 1148 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

..GRAFTON COUNTY
GRAFTON 24.0 1126 AM 12/27
5 S PIERMONT 22.0 1150 AM 12/27

NEW YORK

..COLUMBIA COUNTY
KINDERHOOK 21.0 834 AM 12/27 2 TO 3 FOOT DRIFTS
NORTH CHATHAM 20.3 802 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO 4 FEET
CLAVERACK 20.0 1129 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
NORTH HILLSDALE 20.0 714 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
GHENT 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
HILLSDALE 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
TAGHKANIC 19.0 800 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
LEBANON SPRINGS 18.0 830 AM 12/27
ANCRAMDALE 17.5 1125 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..DUTCHESS COUNTY
PINE PLAINS 25.0 758 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
RHINEBECK 17.0 938 AM 12/27

..GREENE COUNTY
MAPLECREST 17.0 856 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..RENSSELAER COUNTY
EAST POESTENKILL 24.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
GRAFTON 24.0 1128 AM 12/27
STEPHENTOWN 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
AVERILL PARK 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
SCHODACK CENTER 19.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN

..ULSTER COUNTY
NEW PALTZ 16.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
ROSENDALE 14.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN

..BRONX COUNTY
SOUNDVIEW PARK HOMES 22.5 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BEDFORD PARK 22.0 600 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 24.0 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BROOKLYN 17.5 130 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..NASSAU COUNTY
OLD BETHPAGE 20.5 907 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CARLE PLACE 18.1 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..NEW YORK COUNTY
CENTRAL PARK 20.0 700 AM 12/27 ASOS

..ORANGE COUNTY
TUXEDO PARK 26.0 255 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
HARRIMAN 26.0 630 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONROE 24.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NEW WINDSOR 17.5 745 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..QUEENS COUNTY
ASTORIA 16.1 801 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 15.5 700 AM 12/27 ASOS

..RICHMOND COUNTY
GREAT KILLS 29.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
ELTINGVILLE 22.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
STATEN ISLAND 17.8 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..SUFFOLK COUNTY
NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
UPTON 17.6 700 AM 12/27 NWS OFFICE
CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..WESTCHESTER COUNTY
YONKERS 19.5 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT VERNON 17.0 1115 PM 12/26 BROADCAST MEDIA
BRONXVILLE 17.0 1140 PM 12/26 PUBLIC

VERMONT

..BENNINGTON COUNTY
WOODFORD 20.0 743 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
BENNINGTON 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
POWNAL 20.0 730 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORTH BENNINGTON 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
20 SUNDERLAND 19.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
LANDGROVE 18.0 753 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..WINDHAM COUNTY
BALL MOUNTAIN LAKE 18.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

CONNECTICUT

..FAIRFIELD COUNTY
WILTON 18.0 830 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 17.0 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NORWALK 16.0 910 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
DANBURY 14.1 800 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
BRIDGEPORT 12.0 900 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

NEW JERSEY

..BERGEN COUNTY
LYNDHURST 29.0 230 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
LODI 27.1 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
RUTHERFORD 23.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OAKLAND 22.0 730 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GARFIELD 21.8 331 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W TENAFLY 20.0 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS
MAHWAH 17.5 1000 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 17.5 622 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PARAMUS 17.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

..ESSEX COUNTY
NEWARK AIRPORT 24.2 700 AM 12/27 ASOS
VERONA 23.0 500 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
MILLBURN 22.5 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 21.1 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
BELLEVILLE 19.4 1130 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST ORANGE 17.0 1200 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..HUDSON COUNTY
SECAUCUS 25.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HARRISON 25.0 800 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
JERSEY CITY 23.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HOBOKEN 19.9 800 AM 12/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

..PASSAIC COUNTY
CLIFTON 25.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HASKELL 24.5 200 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WAYNE 22.0 915 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 22.0 810 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
WEST MILFORD 22.0 415 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..UNION COUNTY
ELIZABETH 31.8 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELLE 28.7 710 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
FANWOOD 26.0 100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..ATLANTIC COUNTY
PLEASANTVILLE 19.0 820 AM 12/27
ATLANTIC CITY 19.0 808 AM 12/27
NORTHFIELD 17.5 1148 PM 12/26

..BURLINGTON COUNTY
WRIGHTSTOWN 19.2 1036 AM 12/27 CO-OP
CHESTERFIELD 19.0 1056 AM 12/27
SOUTHAMPTON TWP 18.0 951 AM 12/27

..CAPE MAY COUNTY
DENNISVILLE 26.5 947 AM 12/27
ELDORA 25.0 946 AM 12/27
ERMA 22.0 945 AM 12/27
NORTH CAPE MAY 21.0 945 AM 12/27
GREEN CREEK 18.5 944 AM 12/27
CAPE MAY 18.0 748 PM 12/26 HARBOR
SCOTCH BONNET 17.0 946 AM 12/27

..MIDDLESEX COUNTY
EDISON 25.0 935 AM 12/27
NORTH EDISON 23.3 916 AM 12/27
CHEESEQUAKE 23.2 837 AM 12/27
SAYREVILLE 21.0 1236 AM 12/27
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 20.2 1029 PM 12/26
NEW BRUNSWICK 19.5 1032 AM 12/27 CO-OP
METUCHEN 19.1 151 AM 12/27
HOPELAWN 18.5 839 AM 12/27

..MONMOUTH COUNTY
COLTS NECK 25.0 956 AM 12/27
MIDDLETOWN 24.0 1059 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO THREE FEET
CREAM RIDGE 22.7 922 AM 12/27
MIDDLETOWN TWP 21.0 1215 AM 12/27
HOLMDEL 20.0 917 AM 12/27
LAKE COMO 19.0 1107 PM 12/26

..MORRIS COUNTY
LINCOLN PARK 29.0 800 AM 12/27 DRIFTS OVER THREE FEET.
BUTLER 22.0 935 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO FOUR FEET
MONROE 18.0 824 PM 12/26

..OCEAN COUNTY
TOMS RIVER 28.0 941 AM 12/27
BRICKTOWN 27.0 917 AM 12/27
BAYVILLE 26.0 920 AM 12/27
MANAHAWKIN 21.0 916 AM 12/27
FORKED RIVER 21.0 919 AM 12/27
JACKSON TWP 20.1 921 AM 12/27
HERBERTSVILLE 20.0 924 AM 12/27
MANCHESTER TWP 19.2 919 AM 12/27
LAKEWOOD 18.0 917 AM 12/27
BAMBER LAKE 17.0 917 AM 12/27
WHITING 17.0 919 AM 12/27

..SOMERSET COUNTY
SOMERSET 22.5 100 AM 12/27
NORTH PLAINFIELD 18.0 1100 PM 12/26
Original post:

Image (click to enlarge): Surface weather map for 10 pm EST, December 26, 2010, shows a low with minimum pressure of 972 mb (a drop of 19 mb in 12 hours) centered south of Cape Cod. By 1 am Monday, pressure at Martha's Vineyard MA was down to 974.4 mb and at Montauk NY was 974.2 mb.

As the blizzard off the Northeast coast continues to strengthen, storm total reports exceeding 18" have already been reported. As of midnight Sunday, snowfall amounts near or above one and a half feet include:
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
NEW JERSEY

..BERGEN COUNTY
MAHWAH 17.0 930 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

..UNION COUNTY
ELIZABETH 19.0 850 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

..ATLANTIC COUNTY
NORTHFIELD 17.5 1148 PM 12/26

..CAPE MAY COUNTY
CAPE MAY 18.0 748 PM 12/26 HARBOR

..MIDDLESEX COUNTY
SAYREVILLE 21.0 1236 AM 12/27
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 20.2 1029 PM 12/26
EDISON 20.1 1117 PM 12/26
HOPELAWN 18.5 1000 PM 12/26

..MONMOUTH COUNTY
MIDDLETOWN TWP 21.0 1215 AM 12/27
LAKE COMO 19.0 1107 PM 12/26

..MORRIS COUNTY
LINCOLN PARK 18.0 958 PM 12/26
MONROE 18.0 824 PM 12/26

..SOMERSET COUNTY
SOMERSET 19.5 1209 AM 12/27
NORTH PLAINFIELD 18.0 1100 PM 12/26
Meanwhile, wind gusts over 50 mph have been reported over a wide area, including Bridgeport CT (60 mph), Madison CT (56 mph), New Haven CT (51 mph), Groton CT (52 mph), Newark NJ (51 mph), Farmingdale NY (51 mph), Islip NY (64 mph), Wellfleet MA (80 mph), Orleans MA (79 mph), Harwich MA (58 mph), Chatham MA (53 mph), E. Falmouth MA (52 mph), Yarmouth MA (50 mph), Edgartown MA (56 mph), Nantucket (59 mph)

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Record-Setting Southern Christmas Snow

6 PM Update: Washington National has had a total snowfall of a trace as of 6 pm, despite reporting light snow almost continuously since 11 am this morning and also despite rampant hype-ocracy for days from the commercial media. As the storm moves away toward the northeast, as shown in the radar image from The Weather Channel, the highest snowfall amounts reported in the region are around 5" at 2 locations in St. Marys County in southern Maryland.

The daily total for Richmond has been corrected to 3.8" (0.7" of the storm total fell before midnight last night). The Norfolk total has increased to 12.5".

5 PM Update: The 12.0" of snow reported at Norfolk as of 3 pm today breaks the old record for December 26 of 5.0" set in 2004. The 4.5" 3.8" reported so far at Richmond breaks the old daily record of 3.5" set in 1917. The highest storm totals in southeastern Virginia as of 5 pm are 13.2" at Smithfield, in Isle of Wight County, northwest of Norfolk, and 14.0" at Yorktown.

Today's low temperature so far of 28° at Richmond is 1° lower than the average for the date of 29°, but well above the record of 5° in 1980.

The map to the right shows the average temperature departure from climatology for December 1-24 in the U.S.

Original post:
The Christmas snow across parts of the southern U.S. set several records for the date. Overall, 12 daily snowfall records were set in the 6 states of the Southeast Regional Climate Center (Virginia through Alabama). The total number of daily low temperature records reported by the National Climatic Data Center in the entire contiguous 48 states from December 20 through 25: zero.

Here are some of the Christmas records compiled from National Weather Service reports.

North Carolina:
The 0.4" at Raleigh tied the record for December 25 set in 1947. Raleigh has also reported a trace of snow on 9 other occasions since records began in 1944. The greatest depth on the ground for December 25 was 1" in 1966. Piedmont-Triad (Greensboro) had 4.2", which broke the old record of 2.8", also set in 1947.

The 6.5" at Asheville broke the record of 5.4" set in 1969.

The low temperature of 32° at Raleigh was 1° above the average for the date and nowhere near the record of 4° in 1983. The low temperature of 28° at Asheville was also 1° above the average for the date. The record low of -7° was set in 1983.

South Carolina:
The 1.6" at Greenville-Spartanburg edged out the 1.0" in 1962, but was less than the record of 2.0" in 1947.

Georgia:
At Macon, the 0.1" was the first measurable snow ever recorded on December 25. The 2" at Athens broke the old record of 0.2" in 1993. The 1.2" at Atlanta was the first measurable snowfall on Christmas since 1882. The most recent trace of snow at Atlanta on the date was in 1993. In all, Atlanta has recorded a trace of snow 13 times on December 25.

The Atlanta record low temperature for December 25 was 0°F in 1983. This year the low was 31°, barely enough to support the snow which fell. The records for the date at Macon and Athens are 7° and 3°, respectively, also set in 1983.

Alabama:
Huntsville measured 4.5" of snow on Christmas, smashing the old record of 0.3" set in 1989. The 1" of snow at Anniston was the first measurable amount on December 25 since records began in 1903.

The low temperature of 30° at Huntsville was just 2° below average and 31° above the record low of -1° in 1983.

Mississippi:
The estimated 1.4" reported at Tupelo was the first measurable amount of snow on December 25 in records which began in 1930. The last time a trace was reported was 1989.

The low temperature at Tupelo of 33° was 1° above average and 33° above the record of 0° in 1983.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

California Rainfall Smashes Records By Wide Margin

The torrential rainfall of the past week set numerous records in California and the southwestern U.S. For the 7 days ending December 23, the precipitation totals were off the chart---over 600% of normal for at least half of California and Nevada, nearly all of Utah, most of Arizona, and eastward into southern Wyoming and western Colorado.

The National Weather Service has reported that the monthly totals so far are now the wettest on record for December at the airports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Camarillo, Santa Barbara, and Santa Maria. In some of the higher elevations of interior southern California, storm totals ranged as high as 28". The printed amounts on the map to the right are a little hard to read, but note that the yellow areas represent 24-28", and the orange pixels are over 28".

Several daily rainfall records were broken by spectacular margins. In the San Joaquin Valley, at Bakersfield, California, the 1.37" on the 18th was over 4.5 times the previous record, which dated back to 1921. The 1.53" on the next day was more than triple the old record and easily beat the all-time daily record for December of 1.02" on the 27th in 1936. Bakersfield climate records go back to 1889. The 24-hour total of 2.31" on the 18th-19th was double the old December record of 1.15" on December 3-4, 1914. It was also the 3rd highest all-time 24-hour amount at Bakersfield, just behind the 2.32" on January 24-25, 1999. The monthly total of 4.95" so far has exceeded by nearly 2" the old December record of 2.98" set in 1931. This is now within striking distance of the all-time wettest month for Bakersfield, 5.36" in February 1998.

At the higher elevations of central California, snowfall was measured not in feet, but in tens of feet. Here are some of the more amazing estimated amounts:
Location                County   Snowfall
PASCOES SNOTEL TULARE 204"
WEST WOODCHUCK MEADOW FRESNO 192"
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU SNOTEL TULARE 120"
WET MEADOWS SNOTEL TULARE 191"
BISHOP PASS SNOTEL FRESNO 195"
CRABTREE MEADOW SNOTEL TULARE 143"
KAISER POINT SNOTEL FRESNO 168"
Over 1900 daily rainfall records have been set through December 24 in the U.S., nearly 50% more than the total low temperature and high temperature records combined. Of these, 262 were set in California alone, with 58 on the 19th, 44 on the 20th, and 40 on the 22nd.

Meanwhile, despite the excess earlier in the month, daily low temperature records are less than 100 ahead of the daily high temperature records for December. The year-to-date ratio of heat records to cold records remains well in favor of the heat records at 2.4 to 1.

Images (click to enlarge): California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona 7-day precipitation percentage of normal ending 7 am EDT, December 23 from National Weather Service (NWS); Storm total precipitation for southern California, December 17-23, from NWS; Monthly total of daily low temperature, high temperature, and precipitation records through December 24, CapitalClimate chart from National Climatic Data Center records

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Cold Weather and Rising Energy Prices

Oil prices are approaching $90 a barrel, reaching a high of $89.97 in today's trading on the NYMEX exchange and closing at a 2-year high. It's also cold in much of the eastern U.S. and western Europe where a lot of heating oil is consumed, so the weather must be causing the price rise, right?

Well, not really. CNBC's Squawk Box this morning had an extended interview with John Kingston, Platts Global Director Of News. He stated that of the major factors affecting oil prices, weather was perhaps third. The primary cause of the price rise is an imbalance between a probably unprecedented increase in demand and OPEC's inability to expand production at a sufficient rate. In particular, China's consumption has increased by 13% since November 2009, driven at least in part by conversion of electricity generation from coal to diesel.

Kingston's outlook for 2011: $100 per barrel is well within reach based on demand forecasts. Veteran oil analyst Charles Maxwell, interviewed on Bloomberg, sees $150 in the next several years.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Who's the Biggest Terrorist? Yo' Mama!

Dec. 21 PM Update: Meteorologist Jeff Masters yesterday posted a review of a presentation at the recent American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. The presentation by Shimon Wdowinsky of the University of Miami proposed a plausible mechanism by which the severity of the Haiti earthquake could have been influenced by deforestation and several major hurricanes which affected the country in 2008:
At last week's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting last week in San Francisco, Shimon Wdowinsky of the University of Miami proposed a different method whereby unusual strains on the crust might trigger an earthquake. In a talk titled, Triggering of the 2010 Haiti earthquake by hurricanes and possibly deforestation , Wdowinsky studied the stresses on Earth's crust over the epicenter of the mighty January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed over 200,000 people. This quake was centered in a mountainous area of southwest Haiti that has undergone severe deforestation—over 98% of the trees have been felled on the mountain in recent decades, allowing extreme erosion to occur during Haiti's frequent heavy rainfall events. Since 1975, the erosion rate in these mountains has been 6 mm/year, compared to the typical erosion rate of less than 1 mm/yr in forested tropical mountains. Satellite imagery (Figure 2) reveals that the eroded material has built up significantly in the Leogane Delta to the north of the earthquake's epicenter. In the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The bare, rugged hillsides let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 1,000, destroying 22,702 homes, and damaging another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor. Tragically, the hurricanes of 2008 may have set up Haiti for an ever larger disaster. Wdowinsky computed that the amount of mass eroded away from the mountains over the epicenter of the 2010 earthquake was sufficient to cause crustal strains capable of causing a vertically-oriented slippage along a previously unknown fault. This type of motion is quite unusual in this region, as most quakes in Haiti tend to be of the strike-slip variety, where the tectonic plates slide horizontally past each other. The fact that the 2010 Haiti quake occurred along a vertically moving fault lends support to the idea that the slippage was triggered due to mass stripped off the mountains by erosion over the epicenter, combined with the extra weight of the extra sediment deposited in the Leogane Delta clamping down on the northern portion of the fault. Wdowinsky gave two other examples in Taiwan where earthquakes followed several months after the passage of tropical cyclones that dumped heavy rains over mountainous regions. His theory of tropical cyclone-triggered quakes deserves consideration, and provides another excellent reason to curb excessive deforestation!

Original post:
Interesting point of view in today's commentary from Dave Ross on CBS Radio:
. . . I happened to see the AP's annual catalog of disaster and realized that the greatest terrorist of all...isn't some radical bomb-thrower. It's The Planet.

In the year 2010, earthquakes, heat waves, floods, mega-typhoons, blizzards, landslides and droughts killed a quarter of a million people - most of them in January's earthquake in Haiti.

By the AP's calculations, that's more than TWICE the number of people who died in terrorist attacks in the last 25 years, COMBINED. . .

More audio at MyNorthwest.com

This is particularly relevant given the 4 solid pages of prime A-section real estate in today's high-fiber WaPo devoted entirely to analyzing the hundreds of billions being spent annually on "public safety." Apparently we can't afford to spend even a small fraction of that on the much deadlier threat from Momma Nature's attempts to kill us.

Hype-ocracy PM Update


6 PM Update: The afternoon model run is consistent with the morning one in showing a low pressure area tracking to the south of the area and bringing Washington snow on Christmas.

See here for an example of how snowfall amounts are not necessarily correlated with temperatures.

Original post:
The eyeball-hungry low-fiber WaPo has pimped the "s-word" in six seven consecutive [11 pm Update] 8 out of the last 9 blog headlines, but the broadcast media have been maintaining a sensibly low profile on the chances for Washington snow on Christmas. In today's mid-day sample, WRC, Channel 4, veteran Tom Kierein mentioned the possibility of Washington snow on Christmas, but reined in the hype. Even frequent hyper-personality Tom Sater on WUSA, Channel 9, cautiously backed off the assertions last night of newcomer Anny Hong.

The National Weather Service, while carrying a 50% chance of Washington snow on Christmas, is being respectful of the uncertainty at the limits of practical predictability:
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
The map to the right shows one major model's interpretation of the surface weather for 7 pm, Saturday, December 25. It has a strengthening storm off the Mid Atlantic coast, with snow over much of the DMV (DC/Maryland/Virginia). If interpreted literally (a serious risk at the range of 5 and a half days), it would generate a total for the event of about 3-5" of snow in the region, with the larger amounts in the southern and eastern portions.

The graph shows snow depth on the ground in Washington on Christmas for each year since 1929. By the way, the 7" last year, while tying the record for the period, had completely disappeared the next day. Note to Ice Ager Linkbot Tom N: If you can find a trend in that data, you deserve to beat out Fred the Singe-r for the Nobel Prize in Cherry Picking.

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