Friday, July 24, 2009

Oregon, Washington Heat Records


Image (click to enlarge): Oregon maximum temperature forecast for Monday, July 27, from National Weather Service

For previous record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


Noon PDT, July 27 Update: July 26 actual highs:
Portland          93 (record 99)
Eugene 94 (record 102)
Seattle (SeaTac) 89 (record 92)

July 27 Update: A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon Monday to 1 am PDT on Thursday for the Seattle-Tacoma area:
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS AND ONLY LIGHT BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE 60S FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE AT NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. EVEN
HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTH OF SEATTLE MAY REACH 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from noon Monday to 10 pm PDT Wednesday for the Portland-Vancouver area:
THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON BEGINNING MONDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON MONDAY WILL BE IN AT LEAST THE
UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 100...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MANY AREAS
OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL UP
INTO THE 90S DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. IN ADDITION...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AS WELL...RESTRICTING ANY
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT.

1 PM PDT Update: Following highs today in the low 80s in the Greater Portland area, temperatures are forecast to rise through the weekend and into next week:
Saturday  90°
Sunday 90-95°
Monday 100°
Tuesday 100°
Wednesday 95°
Thursday 90°
The National Weather Service has published the following Seattle heat statistics:
 3 DAYS...AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS IN A YEAR WITH HIGHS OF AT LEAST 90.

5 DAYS...RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES ( AUGUST 7TH THROUGH AUGUST 11TH...1981 ).

7 DAYS...RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
90 (SET JULY 1958 ).

9 DAYS...RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS IN A YEAR WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
90 ( SET IN 1958 )

15 YEARS...NUMBER OF YEARS WITH 0 DAYS WITH A HIGH OF AT LEAST
90 DEGREES. ( 23 PERCENT OF THE TIME...15 OUT OF 65
YEARS ). LAST OCCURRED IN 2005.

Original post:
In anticipation of a heat wave expected to last into next week, the National Weather Service office in Portland, Oregon has published some heat records for the northwest portion of the state:
PERIOD OF RECORD:  
PORTLAND...1926-CURRENT
SALEM......1892-CURRENT
EUGENE.....1890-CURRENT

*********************************************************
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR:

PORTLAND SALEM EUGENE
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE..... 11 15 11
100 DEGREES OR ABOVE....LESS THAN 1 ABOUT 1 LESS THAN 1

**********************************************************
NUMBER OF DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR (2009):

PORTLAND SALEM EUGENE
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE..... 8 7 6
100 DEGREES OR ABOVE.... 0 0 0

**********************************************************
RECORD TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS IN A YEAR:

PORTLAND SALEM EUGENE
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE..... 23/1987 34/1958 31/1958
100 DEGREES OR ABOVE.... 5/1977 7/1988 5/1978

**********************************************************
RECORD NUMBER CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MONTH OF JULY:

90 DEGREES OR ABOVE.....RANK #DAYS START DATE
FOR PORTLAND............ 1. 6 7-22-1996
2. 6 7-13-1973
3. 6 7-13-1941
4. 5 7-20-2006
5. 5 7-19-1994


FOR SALEM............... 1. 10 7-13-1938
2. 9 7-05-1945
3. 9 7-13-1896
4. 8 7-21-1962
5. 8 7-18-1946

FOR EUGENE.............. 1. 11 7-13-1938
2. 9 7-21-1939
3. 8 7-20-2006
4. 8 7-21-1962
5. 8 7-18-1946

100 DEGREES OR ABOVE....RANK #DAYS START DATE
FOR PORTLAND............ 1. 5 7-13-1941
2. 3 7-19-1994
3. 2 7-23-2004
4. 2 7-16-1979
5. 2 7-30-1965

FOR SALEM............... 1. 4 7-19-1994
2. 4 7-13-1941
3. 3 7-15-1979
4. 3 7-13-1935
5. 3 7-22-1928

FOR EUGENE.............. 1. 3 7-22-2006
2. 3 7-22-1928
3. 2 7-23-2004
4. 2 7-28-2003
5. 2 7-26-1998

Northeast Wisconsin Sets Record For Lack of Severe Weather

The National Weather Service office in Green Bay, Wisconsin reported on July 21 that northeast Wisconsin has set a 30-year record for the longest streak without severe weather during the usual season from late spring through early fall:
It has been nearly thirteen weeks since the last report of severe weather in the NWS Green Bay service area (22 counties of northeast and central Wisconsin). On April 24, scattered storms produced large hail and damaging winds in north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Based on 30 years of severe weather reports (observations of 1 inch or larger hail, damaging wind gusts near 60 mph or greater, or tornadoes), this is the longest period during the northeast Wisconsin severe weather season (late spring through early fall) without severe weather. June and July are usually the most active severe weather months in this part of Wisconsin. In fact, there has never been a July without at least one report of severe weather in northeast and central Wisconsin.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Mid Atlantic Drought Update



Images (click to enlarge): Maryland and Virginia drought monitor data through July 21 from NOAA/USDA; Regional radar showing scattered thundershowers in central Maryland from The Weather Channel

See here for previous drought reports.


July 26 Update: Rainfall of 0.07" from thunderstorms last evening brings the official monthly total to 0.89", pushing 2009 into second place among dry Julys. With several more opportunities for thundershowers through the coming week, however, that record is unlikely to hold. Precipitation amounts were somewhat heavier in other parts of the region. Yesterday's/month-to-date/season-to-date (since June 1) totals:
Washington National: 0.07"/0.89"/6.75" 
Washington Dulles: 0.23"/1.80"/8.49"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.47"/1.32"/6.84"
July 24 Update: Rainfall totals for yesterday/month-to-date/season-to-date (since June 1):
Washington National: 0.56"/0.82"/6.68" 
Washington Dulles: 1.48"/1.57"/8.26"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.43"/0.85"/6.37"
Yesterday's amount at Dulles was just a few hundredths less than the record for the date.

Midnight Update: An additional amount of 0.56" at Washington National puts the month-to-date total at 0.82". This ties the record July low in 1872 with a week still to go in the month. Dulles picked up an additional 0.67", and BWI had 0.20".

6 PM Update: Updated daily totals, added month-to-date data.

Original post:
Scattered thundershowers are helping the situation in some parts of the region this afternoon, but a very dry July has put the majority of Maryland and portions of northern and eastern Virginia in the minimal drought category of D0 (Abnormally Dry). The weekly drought monitor, based on data through July 21, shows 72% of Maryland, 81% of Delaware, and 18% of Virginia are rated D0. Washington, DC, Baltimore, and their immediate suburbs are all included in that category.

Rainfall so far today and month-to-date totals:
Washington National: Trace/0.26" 
Washington Dulles: 0.81"/0.90"
Baltimore (BWI) 0.14"/0.56"

Near-Record Cool July Continues in New York

For previous record reports, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold


As previously noted, New York has been having an unusually cool summer, with the temperature not reaching 90° since June 1, although it did reach that level to tie a record in April. The National Weather Service office in Upton, NY put out this Public Information Statement today:
FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...HERE ARE THE TOP TEN COOLEST JULYS ON RECORD   
SINCE 1869 FOR CENTRAL PARK IN NEW YORK CITY:

COOLEST
AVG. TEMP. YEAR
70.7 1888
71.9 1884
72.1 1914
72.3 2000/1871
72.4 1891
72.6 1895
72.8 1902/1869
72.9 1956
73.1 1890
73.2 2001

DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY COOL CONDITIONS THUS FAR IN JULY...HERE ARE
SOME INTERESTING FACTS TO NOTE...

WITH AN AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE OF 71.7...CURRENTLY RUNNING 4.6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THIS JULY IS ON TRACK FOR THE 2ND COOLEST
ON RECORD. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED ON 20 OUT OF
22 DAYS...WITH THE OTHER TWO DAYS BEING NORMAL. THERE HAVE BEEN
ZERO ABOVE NORMAL DAYS.

CENTRAL PARK HAS ONLY REACHED 85 DEGREES ONCE THIS MONTH...ON THE
17TH...AND HAS NOT YET REACHED 90 DEGREES THIS SUMMER. IF THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...IT WILL ONLY BE THE
SECOND TIME SINCE 1869 THAT 90 DEGREES WAS NOT REACHED IN JUNE OR
JULY. THE ONLY OTHER TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS 1996.

Arctic Melt Rate Ahead of Last Year


Images (click to enlarge): 2009 Arctic sea ice extent through July 21 from National Snow and Ice Data Center; September 2009 sea ice outlook from Study of Environmental Arctic Change

The mid-July Arctic sea ice analysis shows that this season's melting is proceeding at a higher rate than last year, but less than the record year of 2007:
On July 21, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.28 million square kilometers (3.20 million square miles). This is 617,000 square kilometers (238,000 square miles) more ice than for the same day in 2007 and 1.36 million square kilometers (523,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. Ice extent on July 21, 2009 remained 8.06% higher than the same day in 2007, yet was 2.44% below the same day in 2008 and 14.06% below the 1979-2000 average for that day.
The latest outlook from 16 individual estimates for the September seasonal minimum shows a range of levels from below the 2007 record to above the 2008 level:
The range of individual outlook values this month is from 4.0 to 5.2 million square kilometers, with most of the estimates in a narrow range of 4.4 to 5.2 million square kilometers. The two lowest estimates, 4.0 and 4.2 million square kilometers, would represent a new record minimum. All estimates are well below the 1979–2007 September climatological mean value of 6.7 million square kilometers. The uncertainty / error values, from those groups that provided them, are about 0.4 million square kilometers, thus many of the values essentially overlap.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Energy Secretary Chu on The Daily Show

Jon Stewart interviews Energy Secretary Steven Chu about the Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill on The Daily Show and is made an honorary member of the N.A.S:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Steven Chu
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorJoke of the Day

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Washington, DC Cool July Update

Images (click to enlarge): July 2009 month-to-date average temperature vs. monthly normal and records; top 10 coolest, long-term normal, and warmest July average temperatures in Washington, DC; CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data

See here for more Washington, DC weather records.

July 24 Update: With today's range of 68°-86°, this month is about to drop out of the top 20 coolest Julys. The monthly average so far of 75.8° is a 5-way tie for 20th place, so another 0.1° increase, likely with warmer temperatures in the next several days, will give it a further tumble in the standings.

Original post:
As temperatures have warmed in the third week of July, Washington's monthly average has climbed well out of the 10 coolest Julys. The month-to-date average of 75.4° is now in 17th place, just 0.1° ahead of July 1947. With humidity and cloudiness increasing this week, higher overnight lows should contribute to a higher monthly average, even without excessively hot days.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.