April Gets Crueler: Major East-Coast Storm Developing

Now

Seasonably cold, windy. The same year as L. F. Richardson's pioneering, but ultimately unsuccessful, work in numerical weather prediction, T.S. Eliot labeled April as the "cruelest month", and today's weather models are continuing to point to a cruel rain and wind storm for the Mid Atlantic area by the second half of the weekend. The chart, issued this afternoon by HPC/NCEP/NWS, shows a widespread area of 2"+ rainfall along the East Coast for the 3 days ending Monday evening.

Meanwhile, brisk northwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph at times are limiting temperatures to the mid and upper 50s this afternoon in the Washington metro area, despite the mid-April sun through partly cloudy skies.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, cold. Winds will diminish somewhat tonight as clouds increase toward morning. Lows will be from near 40 in town to the mid 30s in the 'burbs. Showers are likely by late tomorrow afternoon, increasing in intensity overnight. Highs will be in the low 50s to near 55°.

For the detailed storm chronology, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Climate Corner

Tomorrow's nationwide Day of Climate Action was featured today on the first hour of NPR's Science Friday. The second hour covered the revival of a play about a similar "debate" in the past between science and ignorance. Podcasts will be posted to the show's web site.

Mediarology

This Sunday at 8pm, The Weather Channel begins a 5-part countdown of the "100 Biggest Weather Moments", hosted by Harry Connick, Jr.

Back to the Future

** Freeze Warning in effect 11 PM tonight to 10 AM Friday **
** Freeze Watch in effect late Friday night through Saturday morning **

Now

Cold, windy. Arctic air arriving on blustery northwest winds pushed temperatures back to wintry levels today in the Washington metro area. It took until 3pm for the official reading to get back to its midnight level of 46°. Some scattered flurries were reported in the area, but radar at mid afternoon showed flurries mainly limited to north of the Mason-Dixon line and west of I-81.

As a strong upper-level low pressure vortex continues to rotate counter-clockwise in southeastern Canada, temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, and there is the likelihood of some snow showers or flurries. At least one model is attempting to develop a storm off the Delmarva coast by Saturday morning, but that is not confirmed by the early model run this afternoon.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cold. Under mostly clear skies, lows tonight will be near freezing downtown to the mid 20s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with variable clouds, a little less wind, and highs in the upper 40s.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Climate Corner

Also returning to the spotlight this week is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose Working Group II report, "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" will be released tomorrow at a press conference in Brussels. The WaPo obtained a nearly-final draft; a front-page article today, "Climate Panel Confident Warming Is Underway", discusses the report's expected conclusions. The online WaPo also posted an article, "Report: Global Warming to Change Climate of American Southwest", this afternoon reviewing the implications of climate change in the Southwest U.S. The main conclusion is that rainfall is expected to decrease 10-20% by the end of the century.

The Weather Channel is planning to provide daylong coverage tomorrow of the new IPCC report. Check your favorite squawk radio and cable noise networks for the predictable Gore-bashing.

Spring is Busted Out All Over

** Freeze Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Saturday morning **

Now

Cloudy, chilly. Persistent clouds and an easterly wind following this morning's showers and thunderstorms have busted numerous forecasts of warmer readings in the Washington metro area this afternoon. At mid afternoon, temperatures were generally in the low to mid 50s, while even colder air is poised to arrive for the rest of the week and weekend along with the possibility of some snow showers.

All three major local airports reported thunderstorms early this morning, but these had all moved well offshore by early afternoon. Some sun was peeking through the clouds late in the afternoon.

Photo of cherry blossoms earlier this week by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Decreasing clouds, colder. Clouds will decrease and winds will increase overnight as lows drop to the mid and upper 30s in the city and near freezing in the coolest parts of 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 40s to near 50°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics: Meet the Hurricane Guy

This month's meeting of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society features the new Director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Proenza. His presentation topic is, "Challenges in Warning and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones". The meeting at the new Rockville library begins with a light dinner at 6:00 next Wednesday, April 11. Cost is $15 for members and $20 for non-members. RSVP information (deadline Monday) is on the meeting web page.

Seal Hunt Impacted by Ice Conditions

Today's WaPo, in a story headlined, "Warming Thins Herd for Canada's Seal Hunt", reports that the beginning of the annual Canadian seal hunt has been affected by poor ice conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence: "Canadian authorities reduced the quotas on the harp seal hunt by about 20 percent after overflights showed large numbers of seal pups were lost to thin and melting ice in the lower part of the gulf, off Prince Edward Island." Among other press reporting on the event are the Winnipeg Sun and The Economist.

As Good As It Gets

Now

Beautiful! Clear skies, warm temperatures, low humidity, and a light breeze have combined for a nearly perfect spring day in the Washington metro area. Unfortunately, that's as good as it's going to get for now as wintry temperatures stage a comeback by the weekend. Temperatures by mid afternoon were generally in the 80s, although an easterly breeze kept National and Quantico in the mid 70s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, showers developing. Clouds will increase tongiht with lows in the low to mid 50s. There is a 50% chance of showers overnight. Showers are likely tomorrow morning, but clouds will decrease during the afternoon with highs in the mid 60s, falling late in the day.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The updated Klotzbach-Gray statistical hurricane season forecast was released today at Colorado State. The outlook is similar to the earlier one from AccuWeather, but without the Bastardi Bombast. As the result of a rapidly weakening El Niño, it calls for a more intense season than the forecast originally made in December. The current expectation is for the following (long-term averages in parentheses): 17 (9.6) named storms, 9 (5.9) hurricanes, 5 (2.3) intense hurricanes. The probability of a landfall by at least one major hurricane is: 74% for the entire U.S. coast, 50% for the East Coast (including Florida peninsula), and 49% for the Gulf Coast.

Political Science

Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling against the EPA's position on greenhouse gas regulation was widely covered in the press, both the dead-tree and silicon-based versions. In the WaPo, it rated both a Page A1 lead position and an editorial. The WaPo's Bench Conference legal blog has a rundown of links to the usual suspects. Whether this court action leads to any real world action, of course, remains to be seen.

National Treasure

Now

Sunny, mild. After lows in the low 40s, it's a bright, crisp spring day, perfect for filming the sequel to National Treasure here in the Nation's Capital. By mid afternoon, temperatures had reached the low 60s in much of the region with very low humidities (dewpoints in the teens or even single digits). Showers associated with a cold front are scattered from southwestern Virginia southeastward across the Carolinas. The fine weather is likely to persist through at least part of the weekend.

Photo: The national treasure cherry blossoms coming out near the Washington Monument, by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, chilly, then milder. With clear skies, light winds and low humidities, lows tonight will be crispy, in the mid to upper 30s in the city to the upper 20s in the coolest 'burblands. Tomorrow will be sunny and a little warmer, highs in the upper 60s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Hype Casting

Not such a treasure is AccuWeather's early hurricane season outlook on steroids, which gets taken apart by the HoChro's astute SciGuy in a post on Tuesday. (Pointer and interesting comments at University of Colorado's Prometheus science policy blog.)

What's so unfortunate about this kind of exaggeration is that it adds to public confusion and skepticism about the real capabilities of the science. It undermines confidence in all time scales of forecasting, from daily weather to seasonal and long-term climate trends (which are all very different types of problems, BTW, despite what you might hear on squawk radio, the cable noise networks, or the pollution-industry-financed blogs).

Marching Back to Spring

Now

Mostly sunny, warm. The passage of a cool front overnight has shifted winds to the northeast and increased the clouds, but temperatures this afternoon are again above seasonal averages, generally reaching the low 70s in the Washington metro area. This morning's low of 62°, if it were to hold through midnight (not likely), would exceed the record highest minimum for this date by 2°.

Scattered showers on radar are generally west of I-81 late this afternoon, but some of them may make it to the region, especially the southern portions. Cooler temperatures will follow for the next couple of days.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Chance of showers, turning cooler. After a slight chance of showers mainly to the south through this evening, clouds will decrease overnight with lows in the upper 40s downtown to the low 40s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Political Climate

The House Committee on Science and Technology followed up last week's hearing, "Perspectives on Climate Change", with a hearing this afternoon on "Shaping the Message, Distorting the Science: Media Strategies to Influence Public Policy". The hearing was intended to question "industry efforts and attempts within science agencies to control which federal scientists get access to the media and how media campaigns are mounted to confuse the public."

In conjunction with the hearing, the non-partisan, non-profit, Government Accountability Project has issued a report analyzing climate science politicization. The report focuses on NOAA, but it also includes NASA, EPA, USGS, and other agencies.

Irrational Exuberance

Now

Sunny, warm. Clockwise flow around a high pressure area centered off the southeast Atlantic coast is pushing temperatures to early-summer levels through the entire Mid Atlantic region this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the 80s in the Washington metro area, and in central Virginia, Petersburg was as high as 88°. (We'll spare them any further embarassment by not linking to their comments, but the heavy wishcasting about a week ago by certain site visitors regarding "wintry" weather for the 27th-30th based on a "D+10" (10-day) model forecast is looking a wee bit irrationally exuberant at this point.)

A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will bring somewhat more seasonable temperatures for the next couple of days, but the core of coldest air will remain well to the north of the region.

Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds increasing, chance of showers, turning cooler. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms, low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs 65-69° and a 30% chance of showers, mainly to the south in the afternoon.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

It's a little over 60 days to tropical storm season, and the forecasts are already sprouting like the spring lawns. Despite the underperformance of last year's preseason hype, AccuWeather is exuberantly calling for major impacts on the Gulf Coast. The Klotzbach/Gray Colorado State forecast is scheduled to be updated next Tuesday.

It may be irrational to make a specific forecast 10 days in advance or even to project the particulars of the upcoming hurricane season, but it is possible to make a "hindcast" of hurricanes thousands of years in the past. The USAT Weather Guys linked last Friday to an interesting article, "Uncovering prehistoric hurricane activity", in the current (March-April) American Scientist about the clever use of sand distribution in sediment cores from coastal lakes to study the frequency of intense hurricanes over the last 5000 years. The full article is available only to members or subscribers, but there is more information about paleotempestology on the National Climatic Data Center web site.