Monday, April 18, 2011

Raleigh Tornado Rated EF-3

April 19 Update: The National Weather Service has posted a preliminary track map of the 26 tornadoes in North Carolina on April 16:
The breakdown by intensity, shown on the map, includes 5 tornadoes at EF-3, including the large storm which passed through Raleigh.


Images (click to enlarge): Map of over 240 tornado reports in the 3 days April 14-16, from New York Times; Composite radar image shows multiple severe storms covering much of central North Carolina (including path of Sanford/Raleigh tornado) on April 16, from WRAL-TV (h/t Sarah Scolnik)

Midnight Update: The New York Times reports ("Experts Busy Assessing Ferocity of Storms") that the NWS is estimating "that North Carolina was hit by 15 to 20 tornadoes on Saturday — about the average number the state had in an entire year."

The Raleigh News Observer has a review of the tornado outbreak in Tuesday's edition (Piecing together a deadly weather day) plus photo galleries with hundreds of images locally and statewide across North Carolina.

See here for an interactive map of storm damage photos in the city of Raleigh.

Original post:
A preliminary analysis posted this afternoon by the National Weather Service rates the large tornado which moved through Raleigh, NC on Saturday afternoon, April 16, at EF-3 on the revised Fujita scale:
LOCATION...SANFORD...BROADWAY...HOLLY SPRINGS AND RALEIGH IN LEE AND
WAKE COUNTIES COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...APRIL 16, 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...253 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...160 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH....0.3 MILES
MILES PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 63 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.34N / 79.31W
ENDING LAT/LON...35.93N / 78.46W
* FATALITIES...5
* INJURIES...TOTAL NUMBER UNKNOWN
At its peak,
CONTINUING NORTHEAST ALONG CAMERON DRIVE...THE UPPER FLOOR WAS
BLOWN OFF TWO APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THE TORNADO THEN ENTERED AN
INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ALONG INDUSTRIAL DR WHERE IT MULTIPLE STEEL
CONSTRUCTED RETAIL BUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED IN ADDITION TO AT
LEAST THREE LARGE WAREHOUSES AT THE STATIC CONTROL FACILITY. WINDS
IN THIS AREA LIKELY EXCEEDED 160 MPH. THE TORNADO THEN DESTROYED
THE TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY... BIG LOTS... AND LOWES HOME
IMPROVEMENT STORE ALONG HIGHWAY 421. WINDS IN THIS AREA WERE
ESTIMATED AROUND 140 MPH. TWO HOMES WERE BLOWN OFF THEIR
FOUNDATIONS ALONG RICE RD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 42. A FATALITY OCCURRED
ALONG POPLAR SPRING CHURCH ROAD IN A MOBILE HOME. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST ALONG AVENT FERRY ROAD CROSSING INTO CHATHAM
COUNTY JUST EAST OF HARRIS LAKE.
The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore twitches that this may have been the largest tornado outbreak in North Carolina history.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Minneapolis Snowfall Update: Fourth Highest Total


April 20 Update: Today's 1.3" brings the Minneapolis seasonal snowfall total to 86.6". This is still the 4th highest seasonal total. The spring total to date (since March 1) of 10.1" is 24% below the long-term average.

Image (click to enlarge): Minnesota/Wisconsin 24-hour snowfall ending at 9 am CDT, April 20, from National Weather Service

Original post:
Yesterday's 0.6" of snow at Minneapolis brought the 2010-2011 snowfall total to 85.3". That was just enough to edge past 1916-1917 into 4th place. An additional 3.7" would be necessary to exceed the 3rd highest season of 1950-1951. Although measurable snow as late as May is hardly unheard-of in Minneapolis, time is running out on the chances for further record setting. The top 10 May snowfall totals are:
                 3.0...1892/1935/1946  
2.4...1954
2.0...1915
1.8...1909
1.2...1976
1.0...1885/1888
0.8...1907
0.5...1923/24
0.3...1967/91
0.2...1929/47/71
For previous posts on Minneapolis snowfall, see:

Monday, April 4, 2011

Momma Nature to Forecast: You're Busted!
Record Heat in Mid Atlantic


Image (click to enlarge): Surface temperatures at 4 pm EDT, April 4, 2011, from Unisys

Forecasts of highs in the mid 70s for the Washington, DC area were waaay too conservative today. Readings soared into the mid 80s as the preliminary high at Washington National reached 85°. This tied the 1956 record for the date. At Washington Dulles, where records began in 1962, the 84° high easily smashed the old record of 81° originally set in 1981 and tied in 1999. The Baltimore high of 86° also exceeded the old record by 3°. The previous record of 83° was set in 1892 and matched in 1956.

Other records set or tied (old record and date in parentheses):
Norfolk VA     86 (tied, 1963)
Richmond VA 87 (86, 1956)
Bluefield WV 81 (79, 1985)
Georgetown DE 81 (tied, 1963)
Beckley WV 80 (78, 1986)
Elkins WV 83 (81, 1981)

Friday, April 1, 2011

Early Spring Heat Records March On; Outnumber Cold Records by Over 5 to 1

For related record temperature posts, see:
There will probably be a few stragglers yet to report, but the National Climatic Data Center figures show that daily high temperature records in the U.S. during March were over 5 times as numerous as low temperature records. The ratio of 5.30 to 1 exceeded even the massive 5.22 last September and was the highest since 6.07 in April 2010.

Every month in the last 13, except December, has now had more heat records than cold records. The cumulative ratio since January 2010 is 2.07. Thanks to the near-parity of records in January and February, the ratio for 2011 to date is only 1.47, but that is well ahead of the pace through the first quarter of last year.

Preliminary data through March 30 from NOAA show that the month was above average over much of the U.S., with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains.

Images (click to enlarge):
  • Monthly total number of daily high temperature, low temperature, and high minimum temperature records set in the U.S. for October 2010 through March 2011, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
  • Cumulative excess of heat records vs. cold records by month for 2010 and 2011 to date, data source as above
  • Preliminary March 2011 monthly temperature departure from climatological average from NOAA/NCEP via ESRL

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Near-Record April Fool's Snowfall Forecast
Update: Bangor Sets Record

Images (click to enlarge): Snowfall forecast for April 1 from The Weather Channel; Daily snowfall ending 8 am EDT, April 2, from National Weather Service/NOAA

April 2 Update: The final total of 14.4" at Bangor exceeded the April daily record (see list below) by 4". Other updated totals:
Gray ME     10.3"
Caribou ME 7.5"
The Lewiston Sun-Journal reported these additional amounts:
Hope     13.5"
Raymond 11"
Oxford 11"
Lewiston 10.3"
Turner 9"
Auburn 8"
6 PM Update: The preliminary snowfall total of 10.5" at Bangor exceeds the daily record of 8.5" in 1993 and is also a new all-time daily record for April; the old record was 10.4" on 4/13/1962.

Other daily totals:
Concord NH      4.9"           
Portland ME 5.9"
Gray ME 9.6"
Caribou ME 1.3"
Hartford CT 1.3"
Boston MA 0.9"
Worcester MA 3.8"
April 1, 1 PM update: Snowfall amounts appear to be on track with the forecast in Maine and New Hampshire, with 6"-8" reported by late morning. The National Weather Service reports:
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH FORECAST  
LEVELS. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE INDICATED 6 TO 8 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MIDCOAST AND FROM LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA MAY BE THE BIG WINNERS FROM
THIS STORM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
THERE. TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

BIGGEST THREAT FROM THIS HEAVY WET SNOW IS THE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION
ON ROADWAYS THAT IS VERY SLICK FOR DRIVING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
MANY ACCIDENTS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE SEEN ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES
LEADING TO LIMBS SNAPPING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.
Original post:
With widespread snowfall amounts of 8"-12" forecast for interior northern New England, some April snow records may be exceeded. Here are some top 10 April 1-day snowfalls for New Hampshire and Maine from NOAA:
Concord NH
Years: 1903-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 15.0 4/13/1933
2 13.3 4/6/1982
3 8.6 4/10/1996
4 8.4 4/4/2003
5 8.3 4/8/1931
6 6.8 4/8/1956
7 6.6 4/12/1918
8 6.2 4/9/1907
9 5.7 4/1/1993
10 5.6 4/7/1971

Berlin NH
Years: 1886-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 14.0 4/13/1933
2 13.0 4/4/1975
3 11.0 4/7/1982
4 10.0 4/29/1987
5 9.0 4/5/2007, 4/2/1987
7 8.5 4/1/1922
8 8.0 4/28/2010, 4/11/1996, 4/10/1974

Portland ME
Years: 1871-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 15.0 4/10/1906
2 14.0 4/6/1982
3 12.5 4/2/1887
4 11.4 4/13/1933
5 11.1 4/1/1922
6 10.6 4/1/1993
7 8.7 4/7/1971
8 8.0 4/16/1904
9 7.6 4/2/1924
10 7.5 4/19/1925

Augusta ME
Years: 1948-2009
Rank Value Ending Date
1 10.7 4/10/1996
2 9.0 4/6/1982, 4/3/1975
4 6.7 4/16/1988
5 6.6 4/1/1985, 4/13/1972
7 6.2 4/29/1958, 4/9/1957
9 6.0 4/25/1962, 4/13/1962

Bangor ME
Years: 1926-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 10.4 4/13/1962
2 10.0 4/3/1975
3 9.4 4/7/1982
4 9.0 4/5/2007
5 8.5 4/1/1993
6 8.3 4/9/1957
7 7.4 4/3/1964
8 6.2 4/1/1985
9 6.0 4/4/2007, 4/9/1938

Caribou ME
Years: 1939-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 21.1 4/7/1982
2 10.3 4/13/2007
3 9.9 4/5/2007
4 9.6 4/5/1973
5 8.2 4/2/1970
6 7.6 4/10/1973
7 7.4 4/10/1996
8 7.2 4/11/1961
9 7.0 4/11/1990
10 6.4 4/18/1953

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Minneapolis Snowfall Update: Sixth Fifth Snowiest Season

March 24 Update: The 84.7" Minneapolis seasonal snowfall to date is confirmed.

Midnight CDT Update: An unofficially final amount of 4.1" for March 23 leaves the Minneapolis seasonal snowfall total at 84.7", still in 5th place, but just 0.2" behind 1916-17.

5 PM CDT Update: Snow ended at 4:08 pm with only a trace of precipitation since 1:00, so the total of 84.6" is likely to hold.

3 PM CDT Update: An additional 1" which had apparently been recorded earlier raises the total to 84.6", putting the seasonal snowfall in 5th place if confirmed. Further accumulation of up to 1" is forecast through 7 pm. An amount of 0.4" or more would be enough to reach 4th place.

Original post:
Minneapolis is reporting 3" of snow in the last 6 hours as of 1 pm CDT. Combined with the 0.4" reported yesterday, this brings the seasonal total unofficially to 83.6". That amount would put this season in 6th place, behind the 1991-1992 amount of 84.1". Light snow is continuing, although visibility has increased substantially during the past hour.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Sunday's Strong Spring Storm Soaks SoCal;
All-Time Daily Rainfall Record at Santa Barbara

Image (click to enlarge): California 24-hour precipitation ending 5 am PDT, March 21, 2011, from National Weather Service

March 21, 8 AM PDT Update: The National Weather Service reports that numerous daily rainfall records were broken by wide margins. In addition, it was the:
  • Wettest all-time calendar day at Santa Barbara
  • Second wettest all-time and wettest for the month of March at Camarillo
  • Wettest March day at Palmdale
  • Second wettest March day at Sandberg
  • Third wettest March day at Los Angeles Airport
From the National Weather Service:
STATION                   RAINFALL ON        PREVIOUS      YEAR 
MARCH 20 2011 RECORD
------------- -------- ----

DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 2.42 INCHES 1.48 INCHES 1943
LOS ANGELES AIRPORT 2.36 INCHES 1.04 INCHES 1992
BURBANK AIRPORT 3.85 INCHES 1.15 INCHES 1973
PALMDALE AIRPORT 1.29 INCHES 0.50 INCHES 1973
LANCASTER AIRPORT 1.48 INCHES 0.74 INCHES 1992
SANDBERG 3.29 INCHES 1.33 INCHES 1992
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT 5.23 INCHES 0.90 INCHES 1991
CAMARILLO AIRPORT 4.91 INCHES 2.26 INCHES 1954
OXNARD NWS 4.21 INCHES 2.26 INCHES 1954
SANTA MARIA AIRPORT 3.46 INCHES 0.74 INCHES 1958
PASO ROBLES AIRPORT 2.02 INCHES 0.77 INCHES 1992

AT SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON
RECORD...AS THE 5.23 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH FELL EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 4.74 INCHES RECORDED ON MARCH 15TH 2003.

AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...WITH 4.91 INCHES OF RAIN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS MARCH 8TH 1968...WHEN 4.60 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. IT WAS THE
2ND WETTEST CALENDAR DAY EVER AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT...FOLLOWING
JANUARY 26TH 1956...WHEN 5.96 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED.

AT PALMDALE AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST MARCH DAY EVER
RECORDED. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.20 INCHES...SET MARCH 7TH 1952.

AT SANDBERG...IT WAS THE 2ND WETTEST CALENDAR DAY EVER FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH. THE WETTEST MARCH DAY IN SANDBERG WAS MARCH 28TH
1993...WHEN 3.38 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED.

AT LOS ANGELES AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD WETTEST MARCH DAY
ON RECORD...BEHIND MARCH 7TH 1968 ON WHICH 3.10 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...AND MARCH 1ST 1983 ON WHICH 2.55 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.
In the San Diego area, the 1.09" at Fullerton broke the record of 0.95" set in 1954.

To the north, in the San Joaquin Valley, records were also widespread:
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT DRENCHED THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR  
ON SUNDAY PRODUCED 1.82 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE FRESNO YOSEMITE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
1.22 INCHES FOR THE DATE THAT WAS ESTABLISHED MORE THAN A
HUNDRED YEARS AGO IN 1893.

AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT IN BAKERSFIELD...RAINFALL TOTALED
0.89 INCHES SUNDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH
20TH OF 0.87 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1973.

OTHER 24-HOUR RAINFALL RECORDS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR
MARCH 20TH INCLUDE 1.63 INCHES AT THE MERCED MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
1.27 INCHES IN HANFORD...AND 1.41 INCHES IN MADERA.
In the San Francisco Bay area, Salinas set a new record of 0.97", doubling the old record of 0.48" in 2006. Salinas climate records began in 1930.

Original post:
The strong Pacific storm pounding Southern California on Sunday is setting at least one all-time rainfall record. The Weather Channel twitches that the all-time daily rainfall record at Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (KSBA) is 4.74" on 3/15/2003. The 4.59" reported through 6 pm local time has been augmented by 4 more consecutive hours of rainfall, resulting in an unofficial total through 10 pm of 5.24". This not only smashes the all-time record by half an inch, but it's also nearly 6 times the old March 20 daily record of 0.90" in 1991.

Normal precipitation for the entire month of March in Santa Barbara is 3.59"; climate records began in 1941.

Both Los Angeles airport (KLAX) and downtown (KCQT) had set daily records by 6 pm. The airport has received at least half an inch of additional rainfall since that time, and downtown has added about 0.8".

Update to be posted when final amounts are available.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.