What's Up With TV Weathercasters?

Oct. 19 Update: The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media had a post in July on broadcast meteorologists behaving more responsibly.

Oct. 14 Update: The Great Beyond blog at Nature gives the shorter Paul Hudson:

Two scientists who have previously said they didn’t believe in global warming still don’t believe in global warming.

"Climate sceptics celebrate BBC story"


Oct. 11 Update: The BBC article is now being Telegraphed as:
BBC's surreptitious U-turn on global warming
and
The BBC's amazing U-turn on climate change

Original post:
Given that meteorology is so closely related to climatology, it seems rather odd that weather forecasters, particularly broadcasters, have such a hard time understanding the science of global warming. Here in the Washington DC metro area, one notable exception is Bob Ryan, a former president of the American Meteorological Society, who has spoken out on the air and online about the subject. Other members of the broadcast media are either reluctant to become involved in a perceived controversy or are vehement critics of the science. In the latter category is one local weekend substitute who teamed up several years ago to routinely bash the science with a colleague from Baltimore in a one-hour weekly weather program on a squawk radio station (today's top story: "Marylands Own Steny Hoyer Says Screw You to the People").

Online, of course, one of the most notorious anti-science sites is run by a former broadcast meteorologist.

The latest entry in the science-bashing derby comes from across the pond. In an article today on the BBC web site, What happened to global warming?, Paul Hudson, listed as "Climate correspondent, BBC News", repeats the discredited meme of no warming since 1998. The Beeb is normally a reliable source for science coverage, but among other inaccuracies, this article also parrots the recent misrepresentation of a paper by Latif. Who is Paul Hudson? His Beeb bio lists him as a former UK Met Office forecaster who is now a "presenter", as they say over there, on BBC Look North, which is apparently the BBC local service for Yorkshire and the North Midlands.

Do the harsh lights of the TV studio fry the parts of the brain responsible for processing science? My theory is that these folks just become unable to see the forest for the trees when they spend so much energy focusing on hour-to-hour and day-to-day weather.

Green Motorcycle

BRAMMO, an Oregon company which builds the first mass-market electric motorcycle, was featured on CNBC yesterday morning. Best Buy has invested in the company and is selling the bike in some West Coast stores, with a rollout to the rest of the country to follow. Retail price is $12000, but the machine is eligible for a 10% federal income tax credit for plug-in vehicles; operating costs are about 1¢ per mile for electricity. The state of Oregon also offers a residential electric tax credit of $1500. The Consumer Reports blog was favorably impressed in a June review.

Energy Agency Issues 2009-2010 Winter Forecast

See here for other seasonal forecasts, including the current NOAA winter forecast.

The federal government's Energy Information Agency (EIA) today issued its winter forecast (Oct. 1, 2009 to March 31, 2010). The outlook calls for a national average decrease in home heating expenses of 8% from last year. The decrease is mainly the result of lower fuel prices, but milder temperatures are also a factor. The largest reductions are for households using natural gas (down 12%) and propane (down 14%). Costs for electricity and heating oil are projected to decline by 2%.

NOAA's latest experimental monthly degree day forecast shows that the contiguous 48 states are likely to be 1% warmer than average. Degree day predictions vary between regions, with the Midwest forecast to be 4% warmer and the West 4% colder. New England and the Mid Atlantic regions are forecast to be near normal. The South Atlantic area, which includes DC, Maryland, and Virginia southward through the Carolinas to Florida, is predicted to be 2-3% colder on average. Maryland and Virginia, however, are each expected to be within 1 heating degree day of normal per month.

Image (click to enlarge): Monthly degree days 2009-10 vs. 2008-09, from NOAA via EIA; U.S. monthly residential natural gas price, CapitalClimate chart from EIA data

Climate Bill Increasingly Unlikely This Year

Speaking at the Atlantic Magazine's First Draft of History conference in Washington, White House climate advisor Carol Browner indicated Friday morning that passage of a climate bill before the Copenhagen conference is unlikely:

"Obviously, we'd like to be through the process. That's not likely to happen. But we could perhaps be out of committee...We will go to Copenhagen with whatever we have.

Video below:

Washington DC Precipitation Update: Nearing Normal, The Hard Way

Barring another passing shower this evening, the 0.08" of rain this afternoon brings the official September total for Washington, DC at National Airport to a nearly normal 3.31", about 13% below average. Rainfall has not been evenly distributed across the area, however. Washington Dulles is closing out the month with less than 50% of the average amount. In general, precipitation was considerably higher to the east and considerably lower to the west across the Maryland/DC/Virginia region.

This is the third consecutive month of below-average precipitation, but September is the closest month to average for 2009 so far. A majority of the months (5) this year have been at least 50% above or below average, and going back to May 2008's whopping excess of 179% above average, 10 of the last 17 months have departed at least plus or minus 50% from the average.

Only 3 months this year (April through June) have been above average, but they were very wet; each of them was over 50% above average. The cumulative yearly total is 10" below 2008's soggy pace, but it's a mere 0.08" below the average through September. Although the statistics might indicate an average year so far, the route to get there was very uneven.

Here are the monthly and year-to-date precipitation totals for the major regional reporting stations, with departures from average in parentheses:

Washington National 3.31"(-0.48")/29.97"(-0.08")
Washington Dulles   1.83"(-1.99")/33.23"(+1.18")
Baltimore (BWI)     3.48"(-0.50")/36.33"(+4.02")  

Images (click to enlarge): September 2009 total precipitation (through 8 am Sept. 30) from National Weather Service (NWS); 2008-2009 monthly precipitation amounts and 2008-2009 percentage departures from average, CapitalClimate charts from NWS data

September Soaker Diminishes DC Dryness

Image (click to enlarge): 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am, September 27, from National Weather Service

5 PM Update: Further north, a daily record was set at Islip on Long Island:

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.15 INCHES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.03 SET IN 2002.  

Original post: This weekend's moderate to heavy rainfall has helped put a dent in the recent precipitation deficit in the Maryland/DC/Virginia area. Amounts across the region have generally ranged from 1-2". For the 24 hours ending at 8 am this morning, totals at the major reporting locations were:

Washington National 1.61"
Washington Dulles   1.10"
Baltimore (BWI)     1.31" 

Storm totals reported by the National Weather Service include:

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************  
  
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS  
                     RAINFALL       OF  
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT  
  
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA  
   
..DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA  
  
   NATIONAL ARBORETUM    1.56  1000 AM  9/27    
   DALECARLIA RESERVOIR  1.32  1100 AM  9/27    
   WASHINGTON            1.07   800 AM  9/27   2 S TAKOMA PARK  
  
MARYLAND  
   
..ALLEGANY COUNTY  
  
   FROSTBURG             1.19  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY  
  
   ANNAPOLIS             2.00  1200 PM  9/27    
   ODENTON               1.67  1000 AM  9/27    
   PASADENA              1.58  1000 AM  9/27    
   SOUTH GATE            1.58  1000 AM  9/27    
   CROFTON               1.55  1000 AM  9/27    
   SOUTH GATE            1.54  1000 AM  9/27   3 SW  
   
..BALTIMORE COUNTY  
  
   KINGSVILLE            1.52  1000 AM  9/27    
   CATONSVILLE           1.44  1000 AM  9/27    
   TOWSON ESTATES        1.43  1000 AM  9/27   2.5 ENE  
   JACKSONVILLE          1.42  1000 AM  9/27    
   TOWSON PARK           1.42  1000 AM  9/27    
   LONG GREEN            1.34  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..CALVERT COUNTY  
  
   NORTH BEACH           2.16  1000 AM  9/27    
   DUNKIRK               1.91  1000 AM  9/27    
   PRINCE FREDERICK      1.46  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..CARROLL COUNTY  
  
   SYKESVILLE            1.43  1000 AM  9/27    
   WOODBINE              1.40  1000 AM  9/27    
   ELDERSBURG            1.24  1000 AM  9/27    
   MOUNT AIRY            1.09  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..CHARLES COUNTY  
  
   WALDORF               1.77  1000 AM  9/27   3.6 SSE  
   WALDORF               1.70  1058 AM  9/27   3.2 SW  
   LA PLATA              1.64  1000 AM  9/27    
   WALDORF               1.47  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF BALTIMORE  
  
   HAMILTON              1.47  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..FREDERICK COUNTY  
  
   THURMONT              0.96   800 AM  9/27    
   
..HARFORD COUNTY  
  
   BEL AIR               1.14  1000 AM  9/27    
   HAVRE DE GRACE        1.14  1000 AM  9/27    
   FALLSTON              1.13  1000 AM  9/27    
   JARRETTSVILLE         1.10  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..HOWARD COUNTY  
  
   MARRIOTTSVILLE        1.50  1000 AM  9/27    
   ELLICOTT CITY         1.45  1000 AM  9/27    
   COLUMBIA              1.42  1000 AM  9/27    
   WHITE OAK ESTATES     1.37  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..MONTGOMERY COUNTY  
  
   MONTGOMERY VILLAGE    1.67  1000 AM  9/27    
   WHEATON               1.40  1000 AM  9/27    
   TAKOMA PARK           1.39  1000 AM  9/27    
   GLENMONT              1.35  1000 AM  9/27    
   VALLEYWOOD PARK       1.26  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY  
  
   FRIENDLY              1.95  1000 AM  9/27    
   CAMP SPRINGS          1.87  1000 AM  9/27    
   FOREST HEIGHTS        1.78  1000 AM  9/27    
   OXON HILL             1.75  1000 AM  9/27    
   BOWIE                 1.73  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..ST. MARY'S COUNTY  
  
   LEONARDTOWN           1.95  1000 AM  9/27    
   PARK HALL ESTATES     1.81  1000 AM  9/27    
   RIDGE                 1.57  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..WASHINGTON COUNTY  
  
   WILLIAMSPORT POWER    0.94  1000 AM  9/27    
  
VIRGINIA  
   
..ALBEMARLE COUNTY  
  
   RUCKERSVILLE          2.10  1200 PM  9/27    
   EARLYSVILLE           1.55  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..ARLINGTON COUNTY  
  
   ARLINGTON             1.42  1100 AM  9/27    
   
..AUGUSTA COUNTY  
  
   DEERFIELD             1.64  1200 PM  9/27    
   CRAIGSVILLE           1.61  1200 PM  9/27    
   STOKESVILLE           1.60  1200 PM  9/27    
   CHURCHVILLE           1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   COLES RUN DAM         1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE  
  
   CHARLOTTESVILLE       1.90  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG  
  
   FREDERICKSBURG        1.36  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF MANASSAS  
  
   MANASSAS              1.40  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF WAYNESBORO  
  
   WAYNESBORO            1.26  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CITY OF WINCHESTER  
  
   WINCHESTER            1.01  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..CULPEPER COUNTY  
  
   RIXEYVILLE            1.33  1151 AM  9/27   6.1 N  
   RIXEYVILLE            1.33  1151 AM  9/27   6.3 NNE  
   RIXEYVILLE            1.24  1100 AM  9/27    
   
..FAIRFAX COUNTY  
  
   MOUNT VERNON          1.74  1100 AM  9/27    
   FRANCONIA             1.57  1100 AM  9/27    
   MCLEAN                1.46  1100 AM  9/27    
   VIENNA                1.22  1100 AM  9/27    
   WASH DC/DULLES        1.10  1200 PM  9/27    
   MANASSAS GAP PARK     1.08  1200 PM  9/27    
   FAIRFAX STATION       1.07  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..FAUQUIER COUNTY  
  
   REMINGTON             1.42  1200 PM  9/27   4 ENE  
   REMINGTON             1.39  1200 PM  9/27    
   WARRENTON             1.27  1200 PM  9/27   3.5 SE  
   REMINGTON             1.21  1200 PM  9/27   5.5 NNE  
   WARRENTON             1.20  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..GREENE COUNTY  
  
   STANARDSVILLE         1.67  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..HIGHLAND COUNTY  
  
   HIGHTOWN              2.44  1200 PM  9/27    
   MUSTOE                1.96  1200 PM  9/27    
   MONTEREY              1.80  1200 PM  9/27    
   MCDOWELL              1.76  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..LOUDOUN COUNTY  
  
   STERLING              1.13  1200 PM  9/27   3.7 NNW  
   STERLING              1.06  1200 PM  9/27    
   ROUND HILL            1.01  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..MADISON COUNTY  
  
   RAPIDAN MAGISTERIAL   1.72  1200 PM  9/27    
   SYRIA                 1.68  1200 PM  9/27    
   NETHERS               1.64  1200 PM  9/27    
   GRAVES MILL           1.56  1226 PM  9/27    
   HAYWOOD               1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..NELSON COUNTY  
  
   TYE RIVER             2.40  1200 PM  9/27    
   ROCKFISH              2.36  1200 PM  9/27    
   LOVINGSTON            1.92  1200 PM  9/27    
   MONTEBELLO            1.76  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..ORANGE COUNTY  
  
   SOMERSET              1.87  1200 PM  9/27    
   BARBOURSVILLE         1.80  1200 PM  9/27    
   ORANGE                1.77  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..PAGE COUNTY  
  
   BIG MEADOWS WAYSIDE   1.96  1200 PM  9/27    
   SKYLAND               1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   IDA                   1.44  1200 PM  9/27    
   LURAY                 1.36  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY  
  
   WOODBRIDGE            1.89  1200 PM  9/27   2.6 SSW  
   WOODBRIDGE            1.78  1200 PM  9/27    
   LAKE RIDGE            1.63  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY  
  
   SPERRYVILLE           1.46  1200 PM  9/27    
   WASHINGTON            1.41  1200 PM  9/27    
   CASTLETON             1.18  1200 PM  9/27    
   CHESTER GAP           1.08  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..ROCKINGHAM COUNTY  
  
   DALE ENTERPRISE       1.64  1200 PM  9/27    
   BRIERY BRANCH         1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   BERGTON               1.40  1200 PM  9/27    
   HONE QUARRY DAM       1.40  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..SHENANDOAH COUNTY  
  
   BURNSHIRE DAM         1.72  1200 PM  9/27    
   ZEPP                  1.56  1200 PM  9/27    
   WOODSTOCK             1.52  1200 PM  9/27    
   DETRICK               1.40  1200 PM  9/27    
   NEW MARKET            1.28  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY  
  
   MASSAPONAX            1.44  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..STAFFORD COUNTY  
  
   STAFFORD              1.65  1200 PM  9/27    
   WILDCAT CORNER        1.61  1100 AM  9/27    
   WHITE OAK             1.45  1200 PM  9/27    
   
..WARREN COUNTY  
  
   SHENANDOAH FARMS      1.10  1200 PM  9/27    
  
WEST VIRGINIA  
   
..BERKELEY COUNTY  
  
   SLEEPY CREEK DAM      1.14   800 AM  9/27    
   FALLING WATERS        1.02   800 AM  9/27    
   
..GRANT COUNTY  
  
   PETERSBURG            0.88  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..HAMPSHIRE COUNTY  
  
   ROMNEY                1.02   800 AM  9/27    
   
..HARDY COUNTY  
  
   LOST RIVER STATE      1.10  1000 AM  9/27    
   
..JEFFERSON COUNTY  
  
   SHANNONDALE           1.14   800 AM  9/27    
   
..MINERAL COUNTY  
  
   KEYSER                1.13   800 AM  9/27    
   
..MORGAN COUNTY  
  
   GREAT CACAPON         1.10   800 AM  9/27    
   
..PENDLETON COUNTY  
  
   SUGAR GROVE           1.73  1000 AM  9/27    
   ONEGO                 1.61  1000 AM  9/27    

Pacific Northwest Heat Record Update

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold

As predicted, heat records were set or tied in the interior of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and northern California Wednesday; a few more were set today:

 ...PRELIMINARY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN OR TIED TODAY...  
  
    STATION            OLD RECORD (YEAR)   NEW RECORD       
    MULLAN PASS (ASOS)     76     (1943) TIED  76               
    SANDPOINT              84     (2001) TIED  84  
    WENATCHEE (ASOS)       89     (1994)       90  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT BUTTE MT TODAY.  
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 2001.  

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REPORTED FOR SEPTEMBER 23RD 2009...  
  
                                                             RECORDS  
STATION              NEW RECORD      OLD RECORD     YEAR    KEPT SINCE  
  
MULLAN PASS             78              74          1952       1938  
OMAK                    90              89          1939       1931  
PULLMAN                 93      TIED    93          2001       1940  
WINCHESTER              88      TIED    88          2001       1939  
  
...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REPORTED FOR SEPTEMBER 23RD 2009...  
  
                                                             RECORDS  
STATION              NEW RECORD      OLD RECORD     YEAR    KEPT SINCE  
  
EPHRATA                 58      TIED    58          1966       1948  

STATION                  PREVIOUS        NEW        RECORDS  
                         RECORD/YEAR     RECORD     BEGAN  
  
MEACHAM, OR              88 / 2001       91         1948  
PENDLETON(ARPT), OR      90 / 1994       92         1934  
REDMOND, OR              92 / 1994       97         1949  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT MONTAGUE CA   
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1991.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT MT SHASTA CITY   
CA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 2003.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT ALTURAS CA   
YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1949.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS TIED AT KLAMATH FALLS   
TODAY [Sept. 23]. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 90 SET IN 1974.